Africa report 05/96 af605p.htm

KENYA

Area:	569 000 sq.km
Climate:	North-east is semi-arid to arid; mountainous central and south-western areas have two rainy seasons (March-May and November-December)
Population:	27.34 million (1995 estimate), GNP per caput U.S.$ 270 (1993)
Specific characteristics of the country:	Low-income food-deficit country; regular importer and occasional exporter of grain.
Logistics:	Good port (Mombasa) and extensive rail and road network. Gateway to Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda
Major foodcrops:	Maize, wheat, pulses, roots and tubers
Marketing year:	July/June
Lean season:	June-July
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:	56 percent

CURRENT SITUATION

Planting of the 1996/97 long rain season crops has started under favourable conditions, following abundant rain in January and February in main growing areas, which replenished soil moisture levels.The recently harvested 1996 secondary “short rains” cereal crop season was lower than anticipated due to localized crop losses in the Eastern Province affected by dry spells. However, overall output is estimated to be normal. In most pastoral areas, the short rains were generally good and livestock is reported to be in good condition. The main “long rains” cereal production in 1995 fell from the bumper harvest in 1994 but remained above average. Aggregate cereal output in 1995/96 is estimated at 3.4 million tons, 9 percent lower than the previous year. Following two good successive harvests, and high levels of carryover stocks, prices of maize have fallen sharply since late October. However, in order to meet normal food consumption needs, the country will have to import limited quantities of maize before the next main harvest from September.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1995/96 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)

	Wheat	Rice	Coarse grains	Total
Normal production	241	33	2 587	2 861
Normal imports (incl. re-exports)	311	57	312	680
of which: Structural food aid	74	-	-	74
1995/96 Domestic availability	380	75	3 368	3 823
1995 Production	330	35	2 996	3 361
Possible stock drawdown	50	40	372	462
1995/96 Utilization	680	150	3 568	4 398
Food use	648	148	2 880	3 676
of which: Local purchase requirements	(-)	(-)	(25)	(25)
Non-food use	32	2	418	452
Exports	-	-	270	270
1995/96 Import Requirement	300	75	200	575
Anticipated commercial imports	290	75	200	565
Food aid needs	10	-	-	10
Current Aid Position
Food aid pledges	28	-	24	52
of which: Delivered	9	-	13	22
Donor-financed purchases	-	-	138	138
of which: for local use	-	-	25	25
for export	-	-	113	113
Estimated per caput consumption (kg/year)	23	5	102	130
Indexes
1995 production as % of normal:				117
1995/96 import requirement as % of normal:				85
1995/96 food aid requirement as % of normal (including refugee needs):				14

FAO/GIEWS - April 1996