Africa report 05/96 Individual countries

NAMIBIA

Area:	824 000 sq.km
Climate:	Mostly arid (south-west and coast) or semi-arid. Only north and north-east gets regular rainfall in November-April

Population:	1.5 million (1995 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: U.S.$ 1 660 (1993)
Specific characteristics of the country:	Arid to semi-arid country; cereal production mainly in the north
Logistics:	Good road and railway network
Major foodcrops:	Millet, maize, sorghum, wheat
Marketing year:	May/April;
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:	48 percent

CURRENT SITUATION

The 1995/96 growing season has been marked by erratic weather conditions. After a delayed start and below-normal rainfall, widespread rains in the first three weeks of January benefited crops and pasture. However, this was followed by an acute dry-spell in late January/early February. Cumulative rainfall from October 1995 to March 1996 has been below normal in most cropping areas and more is needed in the remainder of the season to enable crop recovery to average levels. In particular, late planted crops in the north will still need four to six weeks of precipitation to mature.As a result of the erratic rainfall, outlook for the 1996 cereal harvest is uncertain. In Caprivi, which receives well distributed, though generally below-average rainfall, a close to normal harvest can be expected. Elsewhere in the communal areas, despite a larger area planted, yields are likely to be negatively affected by the late onset of the rains and intermittent dry spells in late January/early February. In the commercial sector, the area under rainfed crops has also increased substantially compared to last year but with below-normal and poorly distributed precipitation, very low yields are forecast. First provisional estimates of coarse grain harvest point to an output of 100 000 tons, which is below average but still much better than last year's drought-affected crop.The national food supply situation is satisfactory with commercial imports arriving on schedule and cereal stocks at safe levels. The Government Drought Relief Programme for 163 200 vulnerable people has been greatly consolidated by the arrival of some 10 000 tons donated by the European Community. As a result, food aid pledges amounting to 11 000 tons have now all been delivered.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1995/96 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)

	Wheat	Rice	Coarse grains	Total
Normal production	4	-	88	92
Normal imports (incl. re-exports)	30	-	31	61
of which: Structural food aid	1	-	2	3
1995/96 Domestic availability	3	-	72	75
1995 Production	3	-	56	59
Possible stock drawdown	-	-	16	16
1995/96 Utilization	51	-	166	217
Food use	48	-	162	210
of which: Local purchase requirement	(-)	(-)	(1)	(1)
Non-food use	-	-	4	4
Possible stock build-up	3	-	-	3
1995 Import Requirement	48	-	94	142
Anticipated commercial imports	48	-	94	142
Food aid needs	-	-	-	-
Current Aid Position
Food aid pledges	1	-	10	11
of which: Delivered	1	-	10	11
Donor-financed local purchases	-	-	1	1
Estimated per caput consumption (kg/year)	32	-	103	135
Indexes
1995 production as % of normal:				64
1996 import requirement as % of normal:				233
1996 food aid requirement as % of normal (including refugee needs):				-

FAO/GIEWS - April 1996