Africa report 05/96 Individual countries

SUDAN

Area:	2.4 million sq.km
Climate:	From north to south, arid, semi-arid and tropical wet-dry. Rainy season May-October
Population:	26.95 million (1996 estimate); GNP per caput U.S.$ 300 (1992)
Specific characteristics of the country:	Low-income food-deficit country; cereal production mainly in eastern and central areas.
Logistics:	Roads, railway and river transport inadequate
Major foodcrops:	Sorghum, millet, wheat, roots and tubers, oils
Marketing year:	November/October; Lean season: September-October
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:	51 percent

CURRENT SITUATION

Harvesting of the 1996 wheat crop is almost completed. The outlook is favourable due to an increase in area planted, in response to higher prices, and Government policy to increase planting in irrigated schemes. Yields are anticipated to be good following satisfactory weather conditions and the absence of migratory pest. The latest forecast puts wheat output at an above-average 570 000 tons, 27 percent higher than last year.Output of the main coarse grain crop in 1995 was estimated at 3.3 million tons by an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission last December, 28 percent below the bumper crop in the previous year. Area planted decreased due to diversion of land to more profitable crops and erratic rainfall at the beginning of the season, while yields were negatively affected by poor rainfall in the middle of the season. The decline in production was particularly sharp in traditionally vulnerable areas of North and West Kordofan and in North Darfur. Although coping mechanisms are expected to allow farmers to cover the food deficit, the food situation needs to be carefully monitored in these areas. At the forecast level of production, cereal imports in 1996 will be limited to some 480 000 tons of wheat, while exports of sorghum will be minimal. In southern parts, affected by a prolonged civil conflict, food difficulties persist despite good production overall. Food aid requirements for war-affected and displaced persons and for vulnerable people, are estimated at some 78 000 tons. Growing insecurity since the beginning of the year has limited access to affected areas and hampered food aid distribution.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1995/96 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)

	Wheat	Rice	Coarse grains	Total
Normal production	460	1	3 189	3 650
Normal imports	450	10	130	590
of which: Structural food aid	250	-	-	250
1995/96 Domestic availability	570	13	3 406	3 989
1995 Production	570	10	3 314	3 894
Possible stock drawdown	-	3	92	95
1995/96 Utilization	1 035	28	3 406	4 469
Food use	933	26	2 827	3 786
of which: Local purchase requirement	(-)	(-)	(9)	(9)
Non-food use	80	2	479	561
Exports	-	-	100	100
Possible stock build-up	22	-	-	22
1995/96 Import Requirement	465	15	-	480
Anticipated commercial imports	387	15	-	402
Food aid needs	78	-	-	78
Current Aid Position
Food aid pledges	10	-	51	61
of which: Delivered	10	-	14	24
Donor-financed local purchases	-	-	9	9
Estimated per caput consumption (kg/year)	35	1	104	140
Indexes
1995 production as % of normal:				107
1995/96 import requirement as % of normal:				81
1995/96 food aid requirement as % of normal (including refugee needs):				31

FAO/GIEWS - April 1996