Africa report 05/96 Individual countries

TANZANIA

Area:	886 000 sq.km
Climate:	Tropical wet-dry climate with two rainy seasons in north (March-May and November -December) and one in south (November-April)
Population:	28.85 million (1995 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: U.S.$ 110 (1992)
Specific characteristics of the country:	Low-income food-deficit country; cereal surplus production in the south and south-west; cereal deficit in the north-west. Distribution difficulties
Logistics:	Serious shortage of rolling stock, fuel and spare parts
Major foodcrops:	Maize, roots, tubers, sorghum, pulses, plantains, rice
Marketing year:	June/May; Lean season: February-April
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:	60 percent

CURRENT SITUATION

The overall output of the 1996 short rains “Vuli” cereal crops, harvested until February, was estimated to be good. However, crops in localized areas in the north were affected by insufficient rainfall during the season, reducing output somewhat. In unimodal rain areas (central, southern and western areas and the maize surplus growing south-western highlands), prospects for the 1996 main season coarse grain crops are favourable following cumulative above-normal rainfall since the beginning of the season. Maize in the vegetative stage is reported to be in fair condition, and good yields are expected. In the bi-modal rainfall areas (northern coastal belt and northern highlands), planting of the 1996 main “Masika” crops is underway. Soil moisture is reported to be adequate due to normal rainfall in February, though more is needed following below-average precipitation in the first half of March. Early forecast of the 1996/97 cereal crop indicates an aggregate output close to 4 million tons, some 13 percent below last year's exceptional crop due to a return to normal yields.Favourable rainfall in recent months has also improved pasture and livestock conditions.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1995/96 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)

	Wheat	Rice	Coarse grains	Total
Normal production	85	405	3 230	3 720
Normal imports (incl. re-exports)	60	25	-	85
of which: Structural food aid	15	15	-	30
1995/96 Domestic availability	75	473	3 817	4 365
1995 Production	55	470	3 817	4 342
Possible stock drawdown	20	3	-	23
1995/96 Utilization	120	473	3 817	4 410
Food use	116	440	2 892	3 448
Non-food use	4	27	687	718
of which: local purchase requirement	-	-	(25)	(25)
Possible stock build-up	-	-	138	138
Exports	-	6	100	106
1995/96 Import Requirement	45	-	-	45
Anticipated commercial imports	45	-	-	45
Food aid needs	-	-	-	-
Current Aid Position
Food aid pledges	4	2	4	10
of which: Delivered	4	2	1	7
Donor-financed purchases	-	-	59	59
of which: for local purchases	-	-	19	19
for export	-	-	40	40
Estimated per caput consumption (kg/year)	4	16	98	118
Indexes
1995 production as % of normal:				117
1995/96 import requirement as % of normal:				53
1995/96 food aid requirement as % of normal (including refugee needs):				-

FAO/GIEWS - April 1996