Africa report 05/96 Individual countries

ZIMBABWE

Area:	387 000 sq.km
Climate:	Centre and north-east tropical wet-dry; south and west semi-arid. One rainy season (November-March)
Population:	11.3 million (1996 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: U.S.$ 540 (1993)
Specific characteristics of the country:	Land-locked country; exporter and importer of grain
Logistics:	Exports and imports through Mozambique or South Africa
Major foodcrops:	Maize, wheat, millet, sorghum
Marketing year:	April/March; Lean season: February-April
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:	66 percent

CURRENT SITUATION

Rainfall continued to be generally good and widespread in most parts of the country in March. Crops are in good to excellent condition in most areas and initial indications are that the country may, for the first time in years, not only produce enough maize for its domestic market but may also resume exports during the 1996/97 marketing year.Large scale commercial farmers are expected to produce about 800 000 tons of maize this year, compared to 250 000 tons last year. The smallholder sector, which benefited from the government's free seed and fertilizer programme, is expected to produce over 2 million tons, of which 1 million tons could be sold.The current food supply situation remains tight. Maize stocks held by the Grain Marketing Board reached alarmingly low levels in February as a result of the slow arrival of grain imports and increased sales to millers. Some improvement is reported with the arrival of imported grains but the lean season is likely to be difficult for low income households until the new crop is harvested in April/June as expectations for a bumper crop may discourage commercial imports.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1996/97 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)

	Wheat	Rice	Coarse grains	Total
Normal production	240	3	1 880	2 123
Normal imports (incl. re-exports)	55	20	-	75
of which: Structural food aid	5	-	-	5
1996 Production	250	-	2 800	3 050
1996/97 Utilization	305	15	2 800	3 120
Food use	290	15	1 550	1 855
Non-food use	15	-	565	580
Possible stock build-up	-	-	585	585
Exports	-	-	100	100
1996 Import Requirement	55	15	-	70 1/
Anticipated commercial imports	55	15	-	70
Food aid needs	-	-	-	-
Current Aid Position
Food aid pledges	5	-	2	7
of which: Delivered	-	-	-	-
Donor-financed purchases for export	-	-	2	2
Estimated per caput consumption (kg/year)	25	1	135	161
Indexes
1996 production as % of normal:				144
1996/97 import requirement as % of normal:				93
1996/97 food aid requirement as % of normal (including refugee needs):				-

1/ Excluding food assistance for refugees.

FAO/GIEWS - April 1996