Heavy rains and snow-melt at the end of April, resulted in widespread flooding across the country which affected the provinces of Badakshan, Fariab, Zabul, Helmand, Nimroz, Farah and Herat.
The damage in these provinces, including the loss of life and cattle, was aggravated by deforestation and poor farming methods.
Agricultural activities throughout the country have resumed but continue to be constrained by a shortage of agricultural inputs, destruction of production assets and insecurity. As a result, the recently harvested wheat and barley crops are again estimated to be well below domestic requirement.
Donors' response to the United Nations Inter-Agency Appeal for Emergency Humanitarian and Rehabilitation Assistance to Afghanistan, launched in October 1995, has been disappointing. So far, less than 30 percent of the U.S.$ 124 million required has been met. Some 75 percent of the funds received was for de-mining programmes with nothing provided for rehabilitation of infrastructure.
The Appeal is targeted at four major crisis areas: emergencies in urban and rural areas, the internally displaced and refugees returning from neighbouring countries and covers the period October 1995 to September 1996.
The import requirement in cereals in 1996/97, mostly wheat, is estimated at 1.4 million tons. Expected cereal food aid deliveries for 1995/96 amount to 191 500 tons, of which 179 000 have been delivered.
A devastating tornado hit the north eastern region on 13 May, affecting some 16 000 families, (84 000 people) and resulting in an estimated 525 deaths. The most affected districts were Tangail and Jamalpur, where overall 80 villages and an estimated 20 000 hectares of crops were damaged or destroyed. Early official estimates indicated that some 22 000 tons of paddy have been lost in addition to other crops. The total value of crop losses so far is put at 331 million Taka. As part of its relief operation, as of 20 May, the Government had distributed 150 tons of wheat and 141 tons of rice in Tangail district and 2 tons of wheat in Jamalpur district.
The output of the recently harvested wheat crop is estimated at 1.32 million tons, some 6 percent higher than last year's above average harvest. Elsewhere, harvesting of `boro' rice is well underway, the target for which is 7.2 million tons. Output is forecast at 7 million tons (milled basis), some 16 percent above last year's reduced crop, which was adversely affected by inadequate irrigation supply and the shortage and high price of fertilizers. This year, cumulative rainfall for the boro crop has been lower than in 1995. In the period 1 January to 31 May, 10 out of the 13 stations monitored, accounting for some 74 percent of area under boro paddy received below normal rainfall, compared to 8 station accounting for 64 percent in the same period last year. Boro paddy normally accounts for almost 40 percent of aggregate rice production in the country. Aggregate milled rice production for 1995/96 is currently estimated at 17.78 million tons, slightly below average.
Planting of the 1996/97 'Aus' paddy crop, for harvest in July/August, has begun under favourable conditions; the crop normally accounts for some 10 percent of total paddy production.
As a result of improved domestic production in 1995/96 and increased stocks, through higher imports last year, the food supply situation is better than in the previous year. Rice imports for 1995/96 (July/June) are currently forecast at around 1.15 million tons, of which it is estimated that about 1.08 million tons had been delivered by April 1996. Due to concerns regarding unforeseen natural disasters and the lead time required for imports, the Government increased rice and wheat stocks in 1995. As a result the overall Government stock position is satisfactory, with an estimated 850 000 tons of grains at the end of April 1996, comprising 395 000 tons of rice and 455 000 tons of wheat.
Abundant monsoon rains during May in most parts of the country favoured prospects for the main "wet" season rice crop, early varieties of which will be planted soon and medium and late varieties in July/August. However, the quantity and distribution of rainfall over the next five months will be the key determinant of overall production. In 1995 the country had a bumper wet season harvest of some 2.8 million tons of paddy, mainly as a result of adequate and well distributed rainfall and improved fertilizer supply.
The Government has revised its estimate for the recently harvested dry season rice crop from 450 000 tons to 693 000. This is attributed to a revision in the area harvested from 170 000 hectares to 210 000 hectares. Although dry season rice only represents some 11 percent of total area under paddy cultivation, it presently accounts for 16 - 18 percent of production. This is attributed to much higher yields, irrigation and the use of improved rice varieties. The official estimate of total paddy production in 1995/96 amounts to some 3.5 million tons.
An FAO/WFP Crop and food supply assessment mission in January this year estimated that the country would have a national surplus of some 140 000 tons of rice in 1996, not taking into account the latest revision of the dry season crop by the Government. Although the Government had expressed plans to export some of the surplus, the mission advised against such moves, mainly because food deficit areas of the country and/or the lack of purchasing power in segments of the population would restrict access to food supply for many people, who in turn would require assistance. A follow up GIEWS staff visit in May, has found that apart form negligible quantities, the Government has met with little success in meeting its export objective. The main reasons are quality and price which made exports unattractive or not cost effective.
Dry weather conditions continued across northern parts, which received little rainfall over several weeks. More rainfall is needed for rainfed crops, though water supplies for irrigated crops are thought to be adequate. However, temperatures averaged 1-3 degrees centigrade above normal increasing evaporation rates. As a result, severe drought has occurred in some parts, threatening large crop areas and resulting in a shortage of drinking water for people and livestock. Despite adverse weather conditions, the outlook for the winter wheat crop currently being harvested is favourable and overall a good wheat harvest is in prospect in 1996. Wheat usually accounts for up to a third of total grain production in the country. In March in an effort to stimulate domestic production, the procurement price for grain was increased by an average of 20 percent.
In recent weeks, early double crop and single crop rice in the south benefited from warmer temperatures, whilst showers increased soil moisture reserves and rice irrigation supplies. However, cool weather in early May, slowed crop development in Manchuria and across portions of the southwest Sichuan Basin, Guizhou, and northern Guangxi.
The official target is to increase cultivated area to over 110 million hectares this year, one percent or some 1.1 million hectares more than 1995. Although area under grain is projected to increase by 1.5 percent, that under oil crops and cotton is expected to decline slightly, by around 0.9 percent and 0.5 respectively. Grain growing areas in north- western Xinjiang were expected to expand the most, increasing by 4.5 percent. The increase follows adoption of a new system under which provincial Governments are charged with direct responsibility for grain output in their provinces. The target for aggregate grain production in 1996 (including soyabeans, pulses, roots and tubers) is 462.5 million tons though recent official forecasts indicate that actual output could be close to 470 million tons. Grain imports, are projected to remain high in 1996 as demand is growing faster than domestic supply due to a combination of population and economic growth. The main cereal import is wheat, for which the estimate has been revised to 13 million tons, some 8 percent higher than forecast earlier and 3 million tons higher than 1994/95.
The output of wheat and barley, now being harvested, is estimated at 11 000 tons and 120 000 tons, respectively. While production of wheat is marginally higher than last year, barley output has declined by about 10 000 tons, as a result of below-normal rainfall at the beginning of the season.
Imports of wheat in the year ending April 1997 is forecast at some 90 000 tons, similar to imports in the previous year.
On 16 June, tropical cyclone 03B hit coastal parts of the southern states of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, resulting in more than 120 deaths and displacing a large number of people. In the state of Andhra Pradesh, it is officially estimated that some 3 700 hectares of crops, mostly rice nurseries, were damaged or destroyed. However, overall crop damage was limited, as Kharif planting had not begun and there were no standing crops. Considerable damage also occurred to communications, property and transportation.
Recent reports indicate that the southwest monsoon is progressing normally, having entered the north Andamans in the third dekad of May. The monsoon has covered most of the southern and eastern regions and the entire country is expected to be covered by rains by 15 July. Harvesting of �rabi� crops is almost complete. Although the official rabi grain production target was 84.5 million tons, recent forecasts indicate that output could be close to 90 million tons. Most of the increase will be in wheat, for which the target is 60 million tons though output is currently projected at 66.2 million tons, slightly higher than last year�s record crop and some 13 percent above the average for the preceding five years. This year, the Government raised the support price of wheat to 3 800 rupees/ton, an increase of 200 rupees, or 5.6 percent over 1995.
The official estimate of aggregate food grain production in 1995/96 is currently put at a record 192.6 million tons, some 1.5 million tons higher than the previous year�s record of 191.1 million tons. More than 75 percent of production is attributed to rice (80 960 tons) and wheat (66 210 tons).
Planting of 1996/97 �kharif� crops, mainly rice and coarse grains, is underway in parts. Early forecasts suggest that the performance of the south-west monsoon this year, upon which summer crops depend heavily, will be normal and similar to past years, during which the country enjoyed eight consecutive beneficial monsoons. Almost 60 percent of the kharif crop is unirrigated and depends on monsoon rains for crop development.
The overall food supply situation is good, reflecting large cereal stocks. Total stock of cereals held by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) by the middle of March 1996, was estimated at some 26 million tons, including 9.7 million tons of wheat and 16 million tons of rice, about 50 percent more than required under buffer norms. The high level of stocks has, however, caused storage problems resulting in losses due to weather and pests. In 1995, in response to high international prices and strong regional demand, it is estimated that the country exported some 3.8 million tons of rice, whilst exports of wheat in the 1995/96 marketing year (July/June) are projected at 1.2 million tons. In late May, the Government revised its export quota for wheat for 1996/97 from one million tons to 3 million tons, including 2.5 million tons of non-durum wheat and 500 000 tons of durum wheat. Allowing for a carry over of quotas from 1995/96, however, actual exports could be potentially higher, though port restrictions could prove to be a limiting factor.
Favourable weather conditions benefited late development of main season rice across the country, whist recent dry weather favoured harvest of the main crop in Java. Aggregate paddy production in 1996 is currently forecast at around 50 million tons, some 3 percent higher than last year and 6 percent above average for the preceding five years. Higher rice production, is attributed to intensive farming methods, development of irrigation and expansion of rice area. Despite advances in production, however, domestic supply lags demand and it is anticipated that the country will still need to resort to importing rice this year. For the 1995/96 marketing year, Government estimates put rice imports at around 2 million tons.
The procurement target for rice in 1996/97 (April/March) by BULOG, the national marketing agency, is 2 million tons. Current rice stocks held by BULOG are also estimated at 2 million tons. Wheat imports are expected to rise this year, in response to rapid growth in food industries, higher per capita incomes and growth in demand for wheat based products. Wheat imports in 1994/95 amounted to 3.6 million tons, whilst imports in 1995/96 are projected at 4.0 million tons.
IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF (4 June)
Although an above average wheat crop is in prospect it is expected to be somewhat lower than last year�s record output of 11.2 million tons. The harvesting of barley is now complete and output in 1995/96 is provisionally forecast to be similar to last year�s output of 3.1 million tons. Wheat imports in 1995/96 (July/June) are estimated at 3.3 million tons, slightly higher than in the previous year. For the 1996/97 marketing year, imports of wheat are forecast to increase to around 3.5 million tons.
After almost four months of negotiations, a Memorandum of Understanding on the implementation of the United Nations Council's Resolution No.986 (1995) permitting limited sales of oil for the importation of food, health supplies, medicines and other basic necessities has recently been signed by Iraq and the United Nations.
The "oil-for-food" agreement is subject to renewal which permits the sale, under certain conditions, of U.S.$ 2 billion of oil over six months to raise money for purchasing food, medicines and other humanitarian needs. The oil sale and distribution of humanitarian supplies will be conducted under strict UN supervision, including the monitoring of all aspects of the agreement and special provision for food distribution in the three northern Governorates of Arbil, Dihouk and Suleimaniyeh. It is estimated that Iraq will be allowed to sell 750 000 to 800 000 barrels of oil per day. However, this amount will fluctuate according to international oil prices. Before the Gulf War Iraq used to pump more than 3 million barrels per day.
The UN Security Council Resolution No. 986 imposes substantial deductions from the revenue of the oil sale of U.S.$ 2 billion for war reparations, humanitarian programmes in the three northern Governorates and other UN costs, including those for the maintenance of the special commission for the elimination of weapons of mass destruction.
The implementation of the agreement will undoubtedly help ease present food shortages and improve the level of nutrition and health of the affected population. It will also regenerate some economic activity, should result in a decrease in the current exorbitant food prices and an appreciation of the Iraqi Dinar against hard currencies. Assuming a renewal of the agreement under the same conditions for an additional six months, the balance of funds available for imports of all humanitarian supplies (food, medicine, other basic necessities, etc.) for one year will be about U.S.$ 2 billion, against an estimated requirement of over U.S.$ 3 billion for food imports alone.
The output of wheat and barley in 1996 is expected to be constrained again by a shortage of agricultural inputs such as quality seeds, fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides, as well as lack of spare parts for agricultural machinery.
Current estimates put 1995 cereal production at 2.2 million tons, some 20 percent lower than 1994 and 25 percent less than the average for the previous five years.
As a result of unfavourable weather, production of wheat in 1996 is expected to be below average and lower than last year. Output of cereals in 1995, mostly wheat, is estimated at some 190 000 tons.
Following the implementation of the GATT-Uruguay Round Agreement the Government has decided to allow flour mills to import wheat from any origin.
Cereal imports in 1995/96 (October/September) are estimated at about 2.1 million tons, virtually unchanged from the previous year.
Planting of the 1996 paddy crop is well underway. Although planting may have been affected somewhat by dry conditions throughout most of the country in early May, subsequent rainfall benefited germinating rice. Early outlook indicates that overall planting will be below average, for the preceding five years and lower than the 2.12 million hectares planted last year. Output is provisionally projected to be somewhat lower than the 13.4 million tons harvested in 1995. The Government has introduced a new rice diversion programme, to run from the 1996/97 fiscal year (April/March) to that in 1998/99, which targets some 780 000 hectares of rice area for diversification to alternative crops in order to reduce excess domestic supply.
Below-normal rainfall at the beginning of the season was followed by good rains benefiting summer crops, vegetables and fruit. The aggregate output of wheat and barley crops in 1996 is expected to be 10 percent lower than last year's average crop.
The condition of pastures is reported to be below average in the rainfed highlands.
Government subsidized livestock inputs (mainly barley and wheat bran) are insufficient and livestock producers have to rely on purchases of feed concentrates. This will result in higher cost of production and may lead to a drop in livestock population.
Imports of wheat in 1996/97 (July/June) are estimated at 0.65 million tons, slightly lower than the previous year. Coarse grains imports, maize and barley, are estimated at 0.91 million tons, some 60 000 tons more than imports in 1995/96. Imports of rice are expected at about 95 000 tons, somewhat higher than the previous year.
Rainfall in recent weeks benefited planting and germination of the 1996 main rice crop, to be harvested in October- November. Although there were expectations of a bumper harvest in 1995 to build stocks after reduced harvests in the preceding two years, output was around 6.4 million tons, some 500 000 tons below 1994 and 10 percent below average for the previous 5 years. This represented the lowest harvest in 15 years and is attributed to a greater than expected decline in area planted, lower yields due to flood damage last August in the central region and unfavourable weather in the later part of the growing season. Rice acreage declined to 1.055 million hectares in 1995 from 1.1 million hectares in 1994, a decline of 4.2 percent. The decline is consistent with trends over the past several years (some 3-4 percent over the last decade) and is partly attributed to a shift away from rice to more lucrative horticultural crops and partly to increased urbanization. The target for paddy production in 1996 has provisionally been set at 6.6 million tons from 1.05 million hectares. In an effort to offset projected decline in area cultivated and increase the level of self sufficiency in rice, the government plans to increase investment by more than 40 percent. The aim is to raise target yields, develop water resources, improve agricultural infrastructure and mechanization.
KOREA, DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF* (12 June)
An FAO/WFP review of the food supply situation in Korea DPR in April, found that since an earlier evaluation in December 1995, the situation had deteriorated more seriously than had been anticipated. The country's substantial food deficit remained largely unchanged, due to the inability of Government to import food commercially and the limited amount of food assistance provided, which had only covered a small part of the overall shortfall. FAO/WFP issued a special alert in May and warned that the situation was likely to become considerably worse in the lean months between May and September, as most of last year's harvest had been consumed, stocks were critically low, significant commercial imports were unlikely and virtually no food assistance was in the pipeline.
Together these factors had led to widespread shortages in large parts of the country and brought the Public Distribution System (PDS) under considerable strain. In recognition of mounting difficulties, the Government implemented various measures to reduce overall consumption, including a reduction in food rations and the use of cereals in feed and industrial use. The Government reduced food rations to 300 grams a day, whilst in some areas rations as low as 250 grams/day have been noted. Consumption norms, therefore, had dropped progressively from an average of 600 grams per caput/day last year. In addition, although, no specific data on stock holding and off-take through the PDS was available, the Government estimated that present levels for the period up to the harvest in October can only provide some 25 percent of normal requirements.
Taking into account the amount of emergency and programme food assistance delivered or pledged so far, FAO estimates the country currently has an uncovered import requirement of some 916 000 tons of cereals with which it needs assistance. Of this amount, 33 750 tons should be provided in the form of emergency food aid for flood victims and other vulnerable sections of the population and 25 000 tons as food for work for the removal of sand and debris from agricultural areas affected by floods last year. This leaves a balance of 857 000 tons to be covered by programme food aid or balance of payments support for commercial imports, if the Government is to maintain minimum ration levels until the next harvest in October. On 6 June 1996, a UN consolidated appeal for US $ 43.6 million for humanitarian assistance to the country was launched. On 21 June a new WFP emergency operation for 58 750 tons of cereals and 11 800 tons of CSB, was jointly approved by the Director-General of FAO and the Executive Director of WFP. In addition to food assistance, the country also needs substantial assistance for the rehabilitation of the agriculture sector.
The monsoon started in early May, producing widespread showers some of which were heavy. Following severe flooding last year, the rainfall situation and the risk of potential flooding are being closely monitored. Planting of the 1996 main season rice crop is underway, to coincide with the monsoon, and will be harvested in November/December. Although aggregate paddy production in 1995, estimated at 1.4 million tons, was about average for the preceding five years, it was 15 percent below the previous year's bumper harvest of 1.65 million tons. The reduction was attributed to serious floods last July/August, which destroyed some 62 000 hectares of paddy in six provinces, four of which faced serious food shortages. As a result, the cereal import requirement for 1996 was estimated at 132 577 tons, by an FAO/WFP mission, of which 38 000 tons were needed as emergency food assistance for 374 000 people for varying periods of 6 months to a year. So far, 10 800 tons have been pledged, meeting fully a WFP appeal for assistance for the most urgent cases. In addition, a joint appeal with the Government has increased donor pledges for a further 15 000 tons. Some $1.5 million has also been provided by the European Union in emergency humanitarian aid for flood victims since January this year.
While the emergency phase resulting from the events in early April in southern areas is over, humanitarian assistance is still needed by thousands of internally displaced people. Lack of adequate water supply continues to affect several villages.
An assessment of the damage to the agricultural sector. carried out by FAO within the framework of an Inter-Agency Special Technical Mission led by ESCWA, has confirmed considerable losses sustained by farmers, livestock owners and fishermen in the affected areas, and called for the identification and formulation of a socio-economic rehabilitation programme in southern areas.
The response to the United Nations Flash Appeal launched by United Nations for internally displaced persons has been satisfactory and so far pledges total more than U.S.$ 13 million.
The outlook for the 1996 wheat and barley crops is generally favourable and an average harvest is in prospect. Domestic cereal production, however, only covers about 10 percent of total requirements and more than 700 000 tons have to be imported.
Imports of cereals, mainly wheat, in 1996/97 (July/June) are forecast at some 0.76 million tons, an increase of about 10 000 tons compared with the previous year.
Planting of the second paddy crop, which normally accounts for around 38 percent of aggregate production is near completion, favoured in early May by moderate showers across the peninsula. Paddy production in 1996 is provisionally forecast at 2.1 million tons similar to output in 1995 and 1994.
In recent years, urban development has encroached onto paddy areas in some parts and disrupted the irrigation system in others. Although the overall reduction is gradual, in some states like Perlis it is estimated that 2 000 tons of paddy are being lost annually due to development. As a counter measure, the Government is considering opening up undeveloped land in other states like Sabah and Sarawak.
Extremely dry weather and the lack of snow during the winter resulted in wide spread and high intensity spring fires in Mongolia in March, devastating large parts of the country. Some 30 000 sq. km of forest area and 50 000 sq. km of pasture were damaged or destroyed and 5,000 livestock lost. In addition some 19 deaths were reported and 700 people made homeless. Total economic loss was officially estimated to be in the region of US $1.9 billion.
The fires are likely to make a difficult, and already tight food supply situation, much worse. Economic problems resulting from the break-up of the former USSR, the cessation of economic and technical assistance, the disruption of external trade and the transition from a centrally planned to a market economy have meant that the country has been unable to import required agricultural inputs, fertilizers, fuel machinery parts etc., and agricultural productivity and production has declined precipitously since the early 1990s. Official estimates show that cereal production, mostly wheat, declined from 718 000 tons in 1990 to some 261 000 tons in 1995. In addition, as April/May are critical months for wheat planting, it is possible that the fires may also adversely affect 1996 production.
The loss of pasture and livestock, especially, may have serious implications for nomadic herders, overall economic recovery and the ability of the country to earn foreign exchange as animal and animal products are vital to the export sector. In addition livestock losses now may be compounded by further and more serious losses in coming months, due to a shortage of pasture areas for feeding.
In recent years, in view of declining production and growing demand, the food deficit has been increasing, though the country�s ability to make commercial imports to bridge the gap has been highly constrained by economic problems and the lack of foreign exchange. This has been especially so in the last year due to surging international grain prices. The country has, therefore, had to resort to international assistance, though the overall level provided has been far short of requirements. In 1994/95 it is estimated that out of a total cereal import requirement of 137 000 tons only 11 400 tons were provided as aid and it is estimated that very little, if any, was imported commercially. For 1995/96 the cereal import requirement is estimated at 270 000 tons, no part of which has been covered by pledges of assistance from donors so far.
In recent weeks although scattered rainfall favoured development of the second season rice crop across the country, it may have slowed harvest operations somewhat. Harvesting is normally under taken in April/May. The Government target for the crop is 4.6 million tons, though production is provisionally expected to be similar to an estimated harvest of some 3.4 million tons last year. As a result of a steady expansion in the irrigation network, the area under dry season rice now constitutes some 20 percent of total paddy area. Planting of the main paddy crop for harvest in October is underway. This year's target aggregate paddy output has been set at 19.6 million tons, with some 15 million tons expected from the main crop. In its drive to increase rice production, the Government recently announced plans to expand the area under main paddy cultivation by some 0.8 million hectares. Some 290 000 hectares are to be expanded soon in areas adjacent to the Ayeyawady, Chindwin, Myitnge, Samon, Panlang and Myittha rivers, whilst a further 413 000 hectares will be added within two years.
As a result of higher trends in production, the Government has set an export target of 1.5 million tons for the current marketing year, compared to estimated exports of some 1.03 million tons in the preceding year. However, the rapid increase in rice exports in recent years, has caused domestic supply difficulties, price increases and a substantial reduction in stocks, which are likely to restrict exports to 700 000 or less in 1995/96.
In the early part of May, some 20 people were killed and 19 injured in heavy storms, which devastated central and eastern parts of the country. Jhapa district, was the worst affected of the seven districts known to have been hit. Considerable damage to property and communications has been reported, though the extent of damage to crops is yet not known. Although, the monsoon, normally enters the country in the second week of June, this year it began over a week earlier.
Elsewhere, harvesting of the wheat crop has been completed and although production is provisionally forecast to be a slightly above average 863 000 tons, it would be some 8 percent below last year's crop. The decline in output is partly attributed to a reduction in area planted and partly to earlier problems in fertilizer supply following an export ban from Bangladesh.
Paddy and maize are being planted to coincide with the onset of monsoon rains, with the area planted expected to be similar to last years 1.4 million hectares and 620 000 hectares for the two crops respectively.
Although there has been some improvement in the overall food supply situation in the country, as a result of higher than anticipated domestic production in 1995, some areas continue to need food assistance. Food aid pledges for 1995/96 amount to 25 800 tons of cereals, of which 20 000 tons have been delivered so far.
The harvesting of wheat is complete. Official estimates provisionally put output at a bumper 18 million tons, some 14 percent above average and 6 percent higher than last year's record crop of 17 million tons. This year's target for the crop was 17.5 million tons. The increase in production is attributed to timely rainfall and higher support prices, which were increased by some 3 percent over 1994/95. It is also attributed to an increase in yield as area planted is estimated to have declined marginally. Yields have improved due to better availability of fertilizers and certified seed and higher support prices.
Planting of the paddy and coarse grains crops is well underway, under generally favourable conditions. The area under paddy is expected to be similar to last year's 2.2 million hectares, whilst the area under maize is forecast to increase slightly to around 870 000 hectares. As in the case of wheat, the Government policy for enhancing rice production is to promote higher yields, through attractive support prices, and ensuring timely availability of inputs.
Despite considerable advance in the production of wheat in recent years, domestic supply is insufficient to meet growing demand. As a result the country still needs to import significant quantities. An estimated 2 million tons of wheat were imported in 1995/96 and the provisional forecast for 1996/97 (May/April) is put at 1.6 millions.
Well distributed rainfall during May, together with drier weather in recent days favoured planting of main season crops. Recent, official estimates of paddy production for the first nine months of the year forecast an increase of 15.7 percent to over 7 million tons, due to an expansion in area and yield. According to these estimates, paddy production in the first quarter increased by some 11 percent to 2.52 million tons, whilst the April-June harvest is expected to increase by some 17 percent to 2.39 million tons and the July- September harvest by 20.5 percent to 2.42 million tons. The target for paddy production in 1996 currently stands at 11.5 million tons, some 4 percent higher than production in the previous year.
Maize production is also expected to increase by some 6 percent to 3.6 million tons in the first nine months of the year.
Although the country has achieved record levels of rice production in the past three years from 6.49 million tons in 1993 to over 7 million tons in 1995 and the early prospects are that this year�s crop will be higher, domestic production is insufficient to meet demand and imports are still required, to meet demand and control prices especially in the lean period from June to September.
Three years ago, budget considerations and concern about water reserve induced the Government to introduce new measures to limit the output of wheat. While the Government purchase price of wheat was kept unchanged at U.S.$ 533 per ton, farmers were only eligible for government support prices for wheat and barley within quotas assigned to them by the Grain Silos and Flour Mills Organization (GSFMO).
The quotas allocated for the 1995/1996 season total 1.3 million tons of wheat and 1.0 million tons of barley. The decline in quotas follows an earlier reduction in wheat procurement price of 25 percent to SR 1 500 (U.S.$ 400) per ton. The purchase price for barley was kept unchanged at SR 1 000 (U.S.$ 266.7) per ton.
The country has achieved self-sufficiency in wheat, dates and eggs and attained high rates of sufficiency in poultry, milk and milk products as well as vegetables and fruits.
Production of wheat in 1995, officially estimated at 2.45 million tons, was 13 percent less than 1994 and sharply below average. However, this level of production was still in excess of domestic requirements estimated at some 1.8 million tons.
As a result of a consistent decline in output in the last four years, exports of wheat are expected to fall sharply in 1995/96 and to end completely by 1996/97. Imports of barley in the year ending June 1996 are estimated at 3.5 million tons, about 0.3 million tons less than in 1994/95.
Early prospects for the secondary "Yala" rice crop, which is planted from April and normally accounts for one third of total rice production, are unfavourable as low irrigation supplies are expected to have resulted in a reduction in the area planted. Even if rainfall during the current southwest monsoon (June/September) is good, production is expected to remain well below average.
On the whole, rice production in 1996 is anticipated to be substantially lower, due to the failure of the last northeast monsoon rains (November/March), the consequent reduction in the main 'Maha' rice crop and a reduction of irrigation water for the 'yala' crop. Rainfall during the 'maha' season was 30 to 40 percent below normal in major rice producing areas. The output of the Maha crop was about 1.4 million tons, some 400 000 tons less than the previous year�s bumper crop and well below average.
In view of reduced domestic production, the government has waived duty to facilitate imports of some 400 000 tons of rice to meet demand. The waiver will be effective till October 15. This will be the first time in 10 years, that the country has imported such large quantities of rice.
Following below-normal rains at the beginning of the growing season, the area sown to cereals in 1995/96 is estimated to have fallen by some 13 percent compared with the previous year. Procurement prices for the 1995/96 wheat crop, were kept unchanged at the previous year's levels of SP 9 500 (U.S.$ 226) per ton of soft wheat and SP 10 500 (U.S.$ 250) per ton of hard wheat.
Preliminary estimates put the 1996 wheat crop, currently being harvested, fractionally lower than the 1995 level of 4.2 million tons. The country became self-sufficient in wheat in 1993, but about two-thirds of the wheat produced is durum wheat. This, together with inadequate milling capacity, means the country needs to import some 120 000 tons of wheat flour in 1996/97.
The output of barley is estimated at 1.55 million tons, a decline of 10 percent compared with last year. In contrast, the output of irrigated maize is expected to be a record 370 000 tons,
Imports of wheat flour in 1995/96 (July/June) are expected to decline by some 60 000 tons to 120 000 tons. Imports of wheat, as in the previous years, are not required while imports of maize are forecast to decline by about 120 000 tons to 200 000 tons. Export availabilities of barley in 1996/97 are estimated at some 600 000 tons.
Early and heavy monsoon rains, through out the country , have disrupted harvesting of the second paddy crop. It is officially estimated that output from the crop (November /June) will be a record 3.9 million tons, some 34 percent higher than the 2.9 million tons produced in the previous year. The increase is mainly attributed to strong paddy prices and good water supplies, especially in dams in the Chao Phraya delta in the central plains, the main irrigated rice area in the country.
Fieldwork for the main paddy and coarse grain crops is well underway and planting of early varieties has started in some areas favoured by early rains. Aggregate paddy production in 1996 is forecast at around 21 million tons, marginally lower than above-average output in 1995. Some 83 percent of total paddy production is attributed to the main season crop.
The target for rice exports in 1996 is set at 5.5, compared to record exports of some 6 million tons last year. Between January and May, about 2.4 million tons were exported compared to a record 2.8 million tons in the same period in 1995. The target for this period was 2.08 millions tons. Exports rose to 520 000 tons in May from 410 000 tons in April but were down from 655,052 tons a year ago. Since April, The Thai National Rice Policy Committee has promoted exports of medium grade rice from the second crop by offering traders and exporters a 250 baht/ton stock quality maintenance support.
Prospects for the 1996 wheat crop, now being harvested, have improved further, following above-normal rains at the end of the rainy season. Current indications point to a recovery in wheat output compared to last year's below-average level of 18 million tons. Production of barley is expected to remain at last year's about average level of 7.4 million tons.
Recently the Government announced base purchase prices for 1996/97 crops. The price for red hard milling wheat was increased by 157 percent to TL 18 000 per kg (U.S.$ 234 per ton) and durum wheat by 125 percent to TL 22 500 per kg (U.S.$ 292 per ton). Barley and maize prices were raised by 174 percent and 171 percent to TL 14 400 per kg (U.S.$ 177 per ton) and TL 17 100 per kg (U.S.$ 222 per ton), respectively. These prices will be increased monthly in line with the rate of inflation, running in April at 80.8 percent on a year-to-year basis.
Exports of wheat and wheat flour in 1996/97 (July/June) are currently forecast to increase by 0.8 million tons to 2 million tons. Imports of quality bread milling and durum wheat are expected to decline to 0.5 million tons from the previous year's level of 1.2 million tons.
Rainfall in recent weeks favoured the late development of the second season rice crop, though disrupted harvest operations. Overall the outlook for the winter/spring paddy crop is favourable. In the Mekong River delta, the main producing area, output is officially expected to be around 6.7 million tons, some 500 000 tons higher than last year. Official reports also indicate that about 1 million hectares have already been harvested, with output averaging 5.6 tons per hectare, some 100 to 200 Kg per hectare more than the corresponding crop in 1995.
Land preparations for the main 'Tenth-month' paddy crop are well underway for planting to begin in July
The rice export target for 1996 has been set at 2 million tons. In order to improve performance of the rice export sector, the Government has reduced the number of companies licensed to trade, to reduce default and enhance reliability.
Heavy rains from 14 to 16 June resulted in floods which caused heavy damage to several villages and towns across the country. Initial reports indicate that about 80 people were killed, large numbers of homes were totally destroyed or damaged and thousands of hectares of agricultural land were submerged. The damage to infrastructures was also severe. The Government declared the Governorates of Mareb, Aljawf, Hadhramaut and Shabwah disaster areas and on 17 June made an appeal to the international community for humanitarian assistance. FAO is participating in a United Nations assessment team presently visiting affected areas. Immediate relief requirements include food, medical supplies, mobile water tanks, blankets and shelter.
Planting of summer cereal crops to be harvested towards the end of the year are underway in many Governorates. The aggregate output of sorghum and millet in 1995 is estimated at 0.54 million tons, about 40 000 tons more than the previous year and sharply above average. Production of wheat and barley, estimated at 168 000 tons and 62 000 tons, respectively, was virtually unchanged from 1994.
Labour wages in both rural and urban areas and cost of petrol are reported above normal.
Imports of cereals in 1996 - mainly wheat - are estimated at about 2 million tons, an increase of some 2 percent compared with 1995.