Latest information indicates that cereal output in 1996 is sharply reduced at an estimated 3.3 million tons, down 3.2 million tons from the previous year and about 50 percent below average. Delayed sowing due to farmers’ lack of finances for inputs last autumn and adverse weather conditions at crucial stages in the growing season are the major reasons for the reduction. Of the total output, wheat is estimated to account for about 2 million tons compared to a normal harvest of about 3.5 million tons. With a large percentage of the wheat crop, only fit for animal feed use, the Agriculture Ministry expects to purchase at most some 1.2 million tons from producers for human consumption. The country’s estimated annual consumption of wheat for food is about 1.6 million tons while another million tons of low quality grain wheat is estimated to be used for feed each year. With the country’s reserve stocks sharply depleted after high exports last year, large imports of wheat will be required in 1996/97 to meet food needs while feed grain imports will also be required to make up the shortfall in production of feed wheat and other feed grain crops.
The country has already outlined plans to increase grain production in 1997 to lift grain supplies out of the current tight situation. There are plans to increase wheat and barley area up to normal levels of around 1.5 million hectares. However, there is still uncertainty as to how much funding can be secured to provide credit to farmers for inputs and machinery this autumn.
The EC has indicated that it is ready to assist the country overcome its current situation as soon as possible providing credits for investment from this autumn, while the IMF, which has already approved a U.S.$ 582 million funding programme earlier this month, has indicated that it would consider additional funding to help the country overcome its exceptional grain shortage situation.