KOREA, DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF* (29 August) A recent on-the-spot review by FAO and WFP has just been completed to evaluate the effects of high intensity rainfall and floods, which occurred in the last week of July 1996, on crop production and food supply. In the five days between 24 and 28 July 1996, southern parts of the country received an average of 800mm of intensive rainfall, resulting in serious flooding and extensive damage to agriculture, property and infrastructure. The rainfall and resultant damage occurred most extensively in North and South Hwanghae Provinces, Kangwon Province and Kaesong Municipality. In addition, though much less extreme, agricultural areas close to the capital Pyongyang also sustained some damage to crops. Records indicate that during the five day period, South Hwanghae received 910mm of rainfall, North Hwanghae 830mm and Kaesong Municipality 630mm, compared to 230mm, 310mm and 130mm respectively, which would be expected during the same period in average years..

In general, the south/southwest produces roughly 60 percent of the country�s food grain, with the remainder coming principally from the northwest and the provinces of North and South Pyongan. It is estimated that 7 out of a total of 20 counties were seriously affected in South Hwanghae Province, whilst in North Hwanghae, the ratio was 8 out of 17.

As a result of extensive flooding a large proportion of low- lying areas in affected parts, remained submerged under water for periods up to 5 days during and in the aftermath of the rains. The extent and duration of submergence, was by far the principal cause of crop loss, though to a much lesser extent losses also occurred due to crops being washed away and to being covered by sand deposits, mostly in areas adjacent to rivers and canals. Submergence in itself need not have resulted in heavy losses had the crops been either more advanced or, alternatively, less advanced in the crop cycle. Both paddy, the main crop affected, and maize, however, were at a critical stage in development at which they were most susceptible to adverse conditions.

Based on field observations, it is provisionally estimated that 360 000 tons of paddy will be lost this year and 92 000 tons of maize due to the floods. Using a conversion factor of 78 percent for paddy to rice for Japonica varieties (IRRI), total loss in cereal availability for 1996/97, is tentatively projected at around 373 000 tons. However the full extent of losses and the consequent ramifications for food supply next year will depend significantly on possible crop recovery in affected areas and weather conditions between now and harvest in October.

In view of mounting food supply difficulties in recent years, especially since the floods in 1995, rationing, through the Public Distribution System (PDS) has been revised down significantly. As a result, rations are now considerably below historic levels and for a large proportion of the population well below minimum quantities required for healthy survival. In addition, of an estimated 5 million people on collective farms, who were formerly not entitled to PDS cereal rations, more and more have had to be progressively absorbed into the system, in the aftermath of the reduced harvest in 1995. Some, as far back as last November and others at various times this year, as household stocks became depleted. Consequently, by May this year, the majority of collective farm workers had also effectively become dependent on the PDS. Those that had not, were in areas not affected by the 1995 floods.

In response to supply difficulties, the Government has gradually lowered off-take through the PDS to an estimated 210 000 tons/month in recent months. At the reduced level, it is estimated that about half the population, mostly from non essential/non manual sectors, would be entitled to receive a cereal ration of approximately 6 kg/month or 200 grams/day. This is considerably lower than an acceptable minimum required. Moreover, as the supply channel is now entirely dependent on imports, it is likely that even this reduced off take has not been consistently maintained and rations are only provided, irregularly, when and if imports arrive.

As food supply difficulties have become more manifest, various counter measures have been implemented. In late May/early June at the time of harvest , potatoes were introduced into the PDS for the first time to supplement rations. As only a limited area is cultivated, some 35 000 hectares, supplies would have amounted to around 525 000 tons of potatoes or 131 000 tons in grain equivalent. Potatoes are not considered a staple and are normally utilized for industrial purposes. Nonetheless, it is estimated that they formed an important component of the diet for a period of six weeks from the beginning of June to the early part of July. In addition, at the beginning of August a part of the maize crop was harvested early and channeled into the PDS as cobs/green maize. This, being a stop gap measure to ease current pressure, will obviously reduce availability at harvest

Grain use for livestock and other uses has been dramatically cut and it is currently estimated that only core breeding stock are being retained with large numbers of animals, either traded, released to households for tending or culled. Although the full extent of this reduction is not known, estimates range from 30 to 90 percent.

The Government has also authorized all provinces and counties to barter products directly with neighbouring countries, especially China, for food. Products that have been bartered, included fish/shellfish, scrap metal, marble and timber, the logging of which are believed to have seriously accentuated problems of deforestation and erosion. Provinces and counties have also been allowed to utilize financial reserves held locally for food purchases, mostly wheat flour. It is estimated that imports through this system of trade, have amounted to approximately 250 000 tons since the beginning of 1996. Areas of the country that have been successful in importing food in this way, are excluded from central allocation for the duration imported quantities are expected to last.

Although the Government is seriously constrained in making commercial imports financially, it has been successful in securing supplies through barter with some countries. The main commodities bartered include cement, steel and gold. It has also intensified attempts to secure food supplies through bilateral grant aid or on the basis of deferred payment. Since the beginning of the 1995/96 marketing year in November, it is estimated that pledges and deliveries of these imports, classified as programme food aid, amount to around 523 000 tons of grain.

By early September 1996, food aid through the UN-system will have amounted to around 46 500 tons of cereals and 6 000 tons of blended food, mainly CBS. Additional donations from non- governmental organizations, notably CARITAS and IFRC, will amount to approximately 28 800 tons of grain and 1 600 tons of non-grain products. In total these sources, therefore, will have provided some 75 300 tons of cereals and 7 600 tons of non cereals in food assistance.

In relation to an import requirement of 1.47 million tons for 1995/96, identified in the last FAO/WFP Special Alert No 267 of May this year, the quantity of bartered food imports, programme and emergency food (grain) aid provided or pledged so far, amounts to 848 300 tons or roughly 58 percent of requirement.