Harvesting of the 1996 second season foodcrops is complete whilst that of the third season is underway. With the exception of some pockets affected by drought, growing conditions during the season have been generally favourable. Although no firm estimates of output are available, the escalation in civil conflict in recent months, which lead to fresh waves of population displacement and disrupted agricultural is highly likely to have adversely affected the outcome. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which was scheduled to visit the country in early August has been postponed due to the current security situation. The objective of the Mission is to review the outcome of the 1996 B crop season and estimate import requirements for the second half of the year, including food aid.
The food supply situation has tightened following the political events of late July and the trade embargo from neighbouring countries. Food prices are reported to have increased sharply in the past three weeks in urban areas and petrol has been rationed. The economic and food situation is like to worsen in the next months. Production of vegetables in the remainer of 1996 is expected to be reduced as most seeds for non-African vegetables are imported. While all 1996 cereal and pulses crops have already been harvested, consumption will be negatively affected by the ban on imports of cereals and other foods. It is estimated that at least 60 000 tons of cereals and pulse imports, representing 20 percent of normal consumption requirements of these staple foods in the second half of 1996, will not be possible. The security situation in most parts of the country is currently stable but remains extremely precarious. Large sections of the displaced and vulnerable population are in need of food assistance.
Seasonal rains from April to June brought relief to pastoral areas, affected by severe dry weather conditions in the last rainy season from September to November. As a result, the condition of pastures and animals is improving.
Although the poor vegetative and water conditions resulted in unusual migration patterns of the nomadic population, the drought and lack of adequate pasturage resulted in an increased incidence of diseases and mortality among livestock. As livestock rearing is the main economic activity in the country, the food situation of the affected population is very tight with serious malnutrition reported in the Tadjoura and Obock districts. Out of an estimated nomad population of 100 000 people in the country, emergency food assistance is being provided to some 50 000 farmers and pastoralists for a period six months.
Above-average precipitation in the first dekad of August in lowland areas, affected earlier by insufficient rains in July, improved prospects for 1996 coarse grains. Despite abundant rains at the beginning of the season, preliminary estimates indicate a decline in the area planted from the previous year. However, providing favourable weather continues during the remainder of the growing season, output could increase above last year�s poor crop.
The price of grains, which has remained stable since the beginning of the year, increased during June/July. This reflects shortages of supplies following last year�s reduced cereal harvest and the closure of the Eritrea-Sudan border. Increasing commercial imports of maize, teff, and sorghum are reported to have entered the country in the past month. However, the food situation of vulnerable groups is anticipated to deteriorate in the months ahead to the next harvest from November. Against food aid requirements of 191 000 tons in 1996, deliveries by the end of July amounted to only 33 000 tons.
Floods in late August in central parts resulted in damage to infrastructure and crops, mainly sugar cane, and affected 20 000 people who had to be evacuated and are now receiving emergency food assistance from the Government. Harvesting of the 1996 secondary �belg� crop is complete. Although the belg crop accounts for roughly 7 percent of total cereal production, it is the main crop in some areas. Abundant precipitation during the season, coupled with effective control of armyworms and adequate fertilizer availability resulted in a good harvest. Aggregate cereal and pulse production in 1995/96 is provisionally estimated at 9.4 million tons, an increase of 13 percent from the previous year. In the nomadic zones of South and East Borna, Ogaden and the Bale lowlands, where the �belg� rains are the main rainy season, pasture and livestock conditions have improved considerably in recent months.
The outlook for the 1996 main �meher� cereal crops is promising. Normal to above normal rains in the past two months resulted in floods and crop losses in parts, but overall benefited developing crops. However, abundant precipitation of past months has also resulted in pest outbreak in some areas of northeastern highlands. Control operations are underway.
As a result of last year�s record �meher� cereal and pulse crop, the food supply situation is stable and food prices have decreased from last year to levels of 1994. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food supply Assessment Mission in late 1995 estimated that no cereal imports were necessary in 1996 other than limited amounts of food aid already pledged. However, despite the satisfactory food supply situation, food assistance is still required in parts where the harvests were reduced and in traditionally food deficit areas of Tigray, North Wollo, Walaita and Hararghe zones. These were expected to be covered by carryover stocks and through donor-supported local purchases. However, at the end of July local purchases and food aid deliveries amounted to 120 000 tons and 253 000 tons respectively.
Normal to above-normal rains in July and the first dekad of August in main maize growing areas continued to improve growing conditions for the 1996/97 maize and wheat crops. However, the area planted is estimated to have decreased in response to a fall in output prices below production costs, increased costs of fertilizers and irregular rains at planting time. As a result, the output of maize is forecast to decline from last year�s favourable production. By contrast, production of the minor wheat crop is expected to increase substantially reflecting favourable weather so far and record planting in response to high producer prices and diversion of land from barley.
The food supply situation has tightened following the export of 400 000 tons of maize earlier in the year. Prices of maize in most urban markets have increased in the past two months. Imports of 200 000 tons are estimated to be necessary to cover normal consumption requirements until the next harvest begins in October.
In the Eastern Province, where cereal and pulse crops have already been harvested, production was sharply reduced by adverse weather. The previous �short rains� crop season was also reduced and the food supply situation is difficult. The Government has started a limited food distribution programme to assist the affected population. In northwestern pastoral areas rains in past months, considerably improved pasture and livestock conditions previously affected by prolonged dry weather. However, the rains were too late to avoid livestock losses and food assistance is also required in these areas. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission is scheduled to visit the country in October/November.
A recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission found that are planted in the 1996 season �B� increased by an average of 7 percent, with major increases in sorghum and potatoes (17 percent) and pulses (14 percent). These developments reflect improved stability in interior areas and resumption of agricultural activities by a considerable number of returning refugees. Growing conditions have been generally favourable, with timely and regular rainfall except for some pockets of drought. The Mission estimated 1996 season �B� cereal output at 109 000 tons, including 85 000 tons of sorghum, 12 400 tons of maize and some 5 500 tons each of wheat and paddy. The estimate for pulses is 72 000 tons, and for roots/tubers and bananas 607 000 tons and 1 049 000 tons, respectively. Compared to the season �B� in 1995, these estimates suggest an increase of 38 percent for cereals, 20 percent for pulses and 14 percent for roots/tubers. The output of bananas remained roughly the same. Despite these improvements, total estimated food production in the 1996 season �B� remains 23 percent below the pre-crisis level of 1990.
The flow of returning refugees has slowed down recently and was estimated by the Mission to average 10 000 people per month in 1996. On this assumption, the total population as of September 1996 would be 6 317 000. At the forecast production level, import requirements for the second semester of 1996 are estimated at 35 000 tons of cereals (including 12 000 tons of cereal equivalent corresponding to the shortfall in roots and tuber production) and 28 000 tons of pulses. After allowance for likely commercial imports, the Mission estimates a deficit of 24 000 tons of cereals and 19 000 tons of pulses in the second half of 1996. About 576 000 people will require emergency food aid during the second semester of the year, some 40 percent of them in need of targeted assistance and institutional feeding support and over one- third participating in emergency works programmes for the reconstruction of dwellings and the rehabilitation of the agricultural sector and rural infrastructure. The largest numbers of targeted beneficiaries, in relation to the total population of the prefectures, are in Butare, Gikongoro and Kibuye.
Taking into account the production of the first semester of 1996 (�A�), the Mission estimated the total 1996 production of cereals at 182 000 tons (29 percent higher than in 1995), of pulses at 189 000 tons (41 percent higher) and that of roots/tubers and bananas at 1 144 000 tons and 2 105 000 tons (30 and 5 percent higher), respectively.
In preparation for the 1997 �A� season, priority will need to be given to multiplication and large-scale diffusion of disease-free planting material for cassava and sweet potatoes, as well as the provision of inputs such as selected seeds for pulses and maize, mineral fertilizer and pesticides at affordable cost. But there is a need to look beyond the next agricultural season towards a thorough rehabilitation of the agricultural sector. International assistance will be especially important for the rehabilitation of the tea, coffee and livestock sectors.
Rains in June, which resulted in floods in the Juba Valley, improved the outlook for the 1996 main �Gu� crop season which is about to start. Crops in the main southern growing areas of Bay/Bakool, Gedo and Shabelle are reported in good condition. However, due to a lack of plant protection inputs, the crop could be affected by quelea bird infestation before harvest. Despite satisfactory prospects, production is anticipated to be reduced in the Juba Valley region, which was affected by dry weather at the beginning of the season and later by floods, and in Hiran.
With the depletion of households stocks, the food situation has deteriorated in several areas of the country. The situation is particularly serious in the Lower Juba region, where food shortages following a poor harvest last year, increased insecurity and poor prospects for this year �Gu� crops, resulted in massive displacement of population to Kismayo and other areas. The security situation continues to deteriorate. Increased inter-clan fighting in Mogadishu by the end of June resulted in new population displacement and the suspension of all humanitarian operations.
Heavy rains in July and early August in southern Upper Nile and Gonglei States resulted in floods and damage to crops and food stocks as well as housing. Worst affected areas include Pochalla, near the Ethiopian border, where some 15 000 people were stranded in the floods. Relief food aid is being distributed in the areas. Elsewhere in the country, rains in July, following below normal precipitation in June in most growing areas, except in the South, improved soil conditions for the recently planted 1996 coarse grains crop. However, more rains are still needed in parts to avoid a reduction in yields. In irrigated areas the outlook for crops is promising reflecting above average levels in the Blue Nile and Atbera rivers. The pest situation is considered to be stable.
The latest estimate of the 1996 wheat crop, which was harvested up to last May, indicates an output of 527 000 tons, lower than anticipated but still 18 percent above the poor crop of last year. Output of 1995 coarse grains has been revised down to 2.8 million tons, 39 percent below the bumper crop of the previous year.
The price of cereals has increased steady in the past two months. The food supply situation has deteriorated, particularly in the depressed eastern states of North and West Kordofan and North Darfur, where the 1996 cereal output was sharply reduced by adverse weather and pest infestation. While farmers� stocks have been depleted, a deterioration in the terms of trade between livestock and cereals has eroded the purchasing power of the affected population. Large numbers of people are reported to be migrating in search of food and food assistance is urgently needed in these areas. The food situation has also been aggravated in Southern states, affected by a prolonged war, as a result of a sharp decline in food aid deliveries due to Government restrictions of distribution operations. WFP reports that at least 700 000 people face starvation in Southern Sudan. The worst affected area is Bahr El Ghazal where, however, the Government has allowed the increase of airlifting capacity.
Harvesting of the 1996 main season cereal crops is complete. In the unimodal rain areas of the south, good yields of the main maize crop were obtained, as a result of generally adequate rains during the growing season. In the bi-modal rainfall areas of northern coastal belt and north-eastern areas, cereal crops were also in good condition, but yields declined from last year due to lower use of fertilizers following a sharp increase in prices.
Aggregate cereal production in 1996/97 (June/May) is preliminarily estimated at 4.5 million tons, slightly higher than the above average crop of 1995/96, mainly reflecting a bumper sorghum crop. Maize, the major staple, is forecast to reach 2.6 million tons, about 3 percent higher than the previous year.
Pasture and livestock are also reported to be in satisfactory condition.
As a result of the expectation of a good harvest, the country is anticipated to remain self-sufficient in marketing year 1996/97, except for a wheat deficit of some 50 000 tons, to be cover by commercial imports. However, the food situation remains tight in 51 chronically food deficit regions, where production shortfalls are anticipated from December. The Government has requested emergency food assistance for 469 544 worst affected population for a period of six months.
Cereal and pulse crops of the 1996 main season are being harvested. Excessive rains in northern parts during July caused floods and landslides in Soroti, Kumi and Mbale districts and resulted in localized crop losses.
Overall, abundant rains during the season benefited development of the crops and allowed late planting of maize, rice, millet and root crops increasing the overall area planted. Generally, crops are reported to be in good condition and satisfactory yields are being obtained. However, late planted crops were stressed by dry spells. The output of the secondary cereal crop season, harvested earlier in the year was normal. The 1996 aggregate production of cereals is anticipated to be similar to last year�s record. The main maize crop is forecast at 939 000 tons, which covers domestic consumption and leaves one-third of production for export. The output of millet and sorghum is forecast at 640 000 tons and 405 000 tons, respectively.
The food supply position remains satisfactory.