The outlook for cereal production in 1996 remains unfavourable following dry winter conditions, extensive winter kill and hail damage in May. Aggregate cereal production in 1996 is estimated at about 215 000 tons, some 32 percent less than in 1995. To meet cereal consumption requirements in 1996/97, estimated at 580 000 tons, cereal imports of some 350 000 tons are estimated. Commercial imports by the private sector are increasing, but about two- thirds of this requirement will still have to be provided on concessional credit or as food aid.
The country has made considerable progress in restructuring the economy and controlling inflation. The economy is beginning to recover slowly but a proportion of the population still cannot afford an adequate diet. As a result, targeted distribution of supplementary food rations continues to be necessary. Some 400 000 people have been targeted for relief food assistance by humanitarian organizations. Of this population, WFP is providing food rations to 250 000 people (the most vulnerable groups, refugees and internally displaced people) through distribution of dry rations, small scale food-for-work projects and soup kitchens. Existing stocks and pledges in the pipeline will allow WFP distribution for just two months in the winter period; unless more pledges materialize, the October distribution will be cancelled and rations will be distributed in November and December only. WFP�s needs until the end of the current UN Appeal period (May 1997) total nearly 15 000 tons.
The cereal supply situation remains tight. Outstanding debts for wheat imports and financial difficulties of the state bread corporation have resulted in sharply reduced imports and utilization in 1995/96.
The outlook for grain production in 1996 remains satisfactory. The area sown to winter cereals, which comprise the bulk of the crop, increased by about 7 percent. Providing normal weather conditions prevail, the 1996 harvest could increase to 1.05 million tons, still a below-average crop but somewhat larger than in 1995.
The minimum requirement for cereals in 1996/97 is estimated at 1.6 million tons, including 1.1 million tons of foodgrains (400 grams per person per day for a population of 7.6 million). Against this requirement, domestic supplies of wheat, after deduction for seed and losses, is estimated at about 560 000 tons leaving an import requirement of 540 000 tons in addition to a significant deficit in feedgrains. The country�s commercial import capacity is limited and up to half of this requirement may need to be provided by a combination of loans, concessional credits and food aid.
WFP is providing supplementary food assistance to a target group of 225 000 beneficiaries, including displaced people from Nagorno Karabakh, hospital patients and inmates of social welfare institutions. The food pipeline is secured through the end of 1996. Outstanding requirements for the 1996/97 UN Appeal amount to 8 200 tons, valued at approximately U.S.$ 4.9 million.
The outlook for 1996 cereal crop remains satisfactory. Winter grains benefited from good conditions and the area sown has increased by about 7 percent. Crop prospects to date are better than last year and the 1996 harvest of cereals and pulses is preliminary forecast at some 6.1 million tons, compared to 5.5 million tons in 1995.
Cereal production in 1996 is preliminarily forecast at between 600 000-800 000 tons, compared to an estimated 554 000 tons in 1995. While wheat production is expected to remain poor due to seed shortages, the area and yield of maize are expected to increase substantially in response to better availability of hybrid maize seed and fertilizer. It is expected that the country will continue to have a large structural deficit in wheat in 1996/97 despite sharply increased bread prices and increased utilization of maize for human consumption. In 1996/97 the cereal import requirement is preliminarily estimated at 380 000 tons of wheat. Commercial imports in 1996/97 are tentatively estimated at up to 150 000 tons, leaving a requirement of 230 000 tons to be covered by credits and food aid.
WFP is targeting 300 000 displaced people from Abkhazia and other vulnerable groups with supplementary food assistance. The food pipeline is tight and donors are urged to come forward with additional funding in order to maintain current levels of assistance and to avoid disruption in targeted food distribution. Outstanding requirements for the 1996/97 UN Appeal period remain at 12 600 tons, valued at approximately U.S.$ 7.5 million.
Prospects for the 1996 cereal harvest are uncertain. Unconfirmed reports indicate that the grain area for harvest in 1996 is about 1 million hectares below the target . Growing conditions have been mixed so far. Some important areas have experienced intermittent dryness in June and July. This is likely to have affected the yield potential as soil moisture reserves are not abundant this year and therefore crop growth is dependent on timely and regular rains. Moreover, government credit for fertilizer, fuel and other supplies have not materialized fully. FAO�s preliminary production estimates put the cereal crop at 14 million tons (cleaned weight), well below the 18 million tons target, but still sharply up on the poor 1996 harvest.
The 1996 grain harvest is underway. Early indications point to yields better than last year but the planting target of 600,000 hectares. is unlikely to have been achieved owing to shortages of inputs and working capital. Nevertheless cereal output in 1996 harvest is expected to recover from last year�s low level of 990 000 tons to about 1.1 million tons, still a below average crop.
Prospects for the 1996 cereal harvest have deteriorated. Persistent hot and dry conditions in June and most of July have adversely affected the yield of winter and spring grains. The 1996 grain harvest may not exceed 2.2 million tons, against the 2.9 million tons target and 2.5 million tons produced in 1995.
RUSSIAN FEDERATION ( 9 August)
Harvesting of the 1996 cereal and pulse crop is underway and early crop yields confirm the expectations of a better harvest than last year despite lower plantings.
The aggregate area sown to grains for harvest in 1996 is officially reported to be 53.8 million hectares, some 1.1 million hectares less than in 1995. Winter grain plantings increased to 13.9 million hectares, but spring grain plantings declined. The harvest outlook for winter grains is good and output could be up to 10 million tons higher than last year�s 19 million tons. Spring grains have also benefited from better moisture conditions this year . However hot and dry spells in July have somewhat reduced yield potential particularly of maize and spring grains in the important producing regions of the North Caucasus and the Volga. . Elsewhere growing conditions have been mostly satisfactory but economic problems and reduced use of fertilizers and other yield enhancing inputs could keep yields below potential.
Based on early harvest returns, official indications are that output of cereals and pulses combined would increase to between 75-80 million tons, still a below average crop but substantially higher than the 67.5 million tons crop harvested in 1995. It is uncertain at this stage if the output of grains by private farmers ( some 3-5 million tons) has been included in the official 1996 forecast.
In March 1996, WFP completed implementation of the winter feeding programme assisting 95 000 displaced Chechens in Ingushetia, North Ossetia and Daghestan. On the basis of a recent WFP food assessment mission, it was decided to continue supplementary food aid operations within the framework of an extended 1996 UN Appeal. Donor response has been very generous and WFP�s food pipeline is fully replenished until March 1997. Food distributions have already started in Daghestan and North Ossetia, whilst a resumption of the programme in Ingushetia is still awaited.
An FAO Mission which visited the country for three weeks in June/July found that the area sown to wheat had increased very sharply . Growing conditions this year have been better than last year and the 1996 cereal harvest is expected to be larger than last year�s, when the harvest was officially estimated at 236 000 tons.
Despite the anticipated increase, cereal production will still be insufficient to meet consumption requirements and the food supply situation is expected to remain precarious. The wheat supply situation is extremely tight as shortages of foreign exchange and barter goods severely constrain commercial imports , while the food aid pipeline remains limited. The country will continue to need assistance in 1996/97 to cover its cereal import requirement.
The upsurge of civil strife in recent months has led to heavy casualties in localized areas, renewed internal displacement of people,and increased the urgency of meeting relief needs. Relief food assistance is needed for a target population of 620 000 people in vulnerable groups. Of this population WFP is appealing for the needs of 400 000 people (pensioners, war widows, orphans, invalids, among whom are returnee and internally displaced persons). WFP�s food pipeline covers needs to the end of January and further pledges are required to ensure continuity through the winter period. WFP�s outstanding needs to April 1997 total 7 000 tons.
Although growing conditions have been satisfactory this year for cereal crops, lack of adequate incentives for farmers and shortages of inputs will keep yields low. Indications are that the area sown to cereals and pulses for harvest in 1996 was between 400-450 000 hectares, only slightly higher than that sown last year and output could perhaps reach 800- 900 000 tons, well below the production target of 1.25 million tons and close to the below-average 1995 harvest.
The cereal supply situation remains tight and the government is experiencing difficulties in providing even the reduced ration of 8 kg of flour per person per month.
The outlook for the 1996 cereal crop has deteriorated in the last two months. The area sown to cereals and pulses for harvest in 1996 is now estimated by FAO at 13.9 million hectares, similar to last year. This estimate includes an allowance of about 1.5 million hectares planted to grains on subsidiary plots and by private farmers. On large farms, reduced winter kill and a marginal increase in the area sown to winter grains has helped to offset the fall of almost 1 million hectares in spring grain plantings. Growing conditions have not been good since the onset of spring. Precipitation has been below average and hot and dry weather in June and July have caused yield losses for both winter and spring grains. Early harvest returns (form state farms only) indicate, that yields are markedly lower than last year. The 1996 grain harvest is now forecast to be around 30 million tons, some 5 million tons less than last year and well below the target of 39 million tons.
The outlook for the 1996 cereal harvest remains favourable. Growing conditions have been markedly better than last year and early harvest returns point to a crop of between 2,3- 2nd 2.5 million tons, short of the target of 4.5 million tons but an improvement over last year�s 2.2 million tons.
Cereal consumption has declined in response to higher prices and a reduced bread subsidy. Cereal imports have decreased steadily from a peak of about 5 million tons per annum prior to independence to an estimated 2.2 million tons of mainly wheat expected for 1996/97. The proportion of this which will be sourced in Kazakhstan will depend crucially on the final harvest outcome in that country.
Weather conditions have remained mostly satisfactory for the 1996 cereal crops now being harvested throughout the Community. Predominantly dry weather over northern countries has favoured winter grain harvesting but restricted yield potential of developing summer crops. By contrast, in southern parts, showery conditions have somewhat hampered winter grain harvesting but benefited developing summer grains. Reflecting this year�s generally favourable growing conditions, and increased plantings throughout the Community, following the reduction of set-aside, the EC�s aggregate cereal production is now expected to increase in 1996 to some 193 million tons. This latest forecast is somewhat above earlier expectations and 7 percent above revised estimates of last year�s crop. Larger wheat barley and maize crops are expected this year in all the major producers, with the sharpest increase in Spain, where output is set to recover significantly from drought-reduced crops in previous years.
The 1996 cereal crop production has remained close to last year�s reduced crop and well below potential, due mainly to economic factors disrupting the agricultural sector. Output of wheat, the major crop, and an important food source, is estimated at around 400 000 tons, which would be only about half of the country�s normal consumption requirements. To ensure that as much of this year�s harvest as possible can be procured for severely depleted state reserves, the government has upped the price at which it will buy wheat from private farmers to 20 000 leks per ton (about U.S.$ 200 per ton) from 15 000 leks per ton (about U.S.$ 150 per ton) last year. However, as in the previous year, the country will continue to rely on imports to meet the needs for the staple bread production, especially in urban areas.
During the last month, the government has also taken the decision to liberalize bread prices. There is some concern that this will lead to large price increases but the government said it would supplement the income of all public sector employees and pensioners with subsidies of 150-250 leks (about U.S.$ 2-3) per month to compensate for any rise in bread prices. In addition, imported wheat and flour would still be excluded from customs tariffs and value-added tax and bakeries would continue to receive subsidies for electricity, water and fuel.
BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA* (20 August)
Rains in the second dekad of August brought relief to summer crops in the development stage stressed by dry weather in the past month. Harvesting of 1996 winter cereals is complete. Food production is expected to recover throughout the country, reflecting a sharp increase in the area planted. This is due to the cessation of hostilities, freedom of movement, better availability and lower cost of agricultural inputs, particularly in the Serb Republic following the lifting of the international embargo in late February 1996, as well as the intensification of agriculture in the BiH Federation in response to disruption in industrial activities.
The situation, however, varies considerably from the BiH Federation to the Serb Republic. Wheat production in the BiH Federation is provisionally forecast at 102 000 tons in 1996, an increase of some 8 percent from last year and well above pre-war levels. Anticipated improvement in yields, more than offset a decline of 9 percent in the area planted. The output of maize and potatoes (consumption of the latter is reported to have doubled in several areas during the war) are expected to rise by 45 percent to 207 000 tons and 313 000 tons respectively, as a result of higher plantings and yields.
In the Serb Republic, production of wheat is anticipated at 259 000 tons, 19 percent above 1995. As the economic blockade from BiH and Federal Yugoslav Republic was still in operation at planting time, the area planted remained some 40 percent below normal. However, the sharp decline in fuel and agricultural input prices since March this year, is likely to result in a moderate increase of yields. Maize output is forecast at some 675 000 tons, 72 percent above the poor crop of 1995 reflecting substantially larger plantings and a partial recovery in yields. Production of potatoes is expected to almost double last year�s crop to 308 000 tons, as a result of improved availability of agricultural inputs.
With the anticipated increase in agriculture and livestock production, there will be a general improvement in the country�s food supply situation from the second half of 1996. Overall, the rural population is expected to have a satisfactory degree of food security in 1996/97 (July/June). The food security of those with limited or no land has also improved with the normalization of trade: food markets are well supplied and food prices have declined sharply. However, the access to food of this population remained constrained by reduced purchasing power resulting from widespread unemployment and low salaries.
The total wheat import requirement in the 1996/97 marketing year is forecast at some 214 000 tons, 17 percent below 1995/96. This is mainly due to an increases in domestic production. Wheat imports will only be required in the BiH Federation, which produces only one-third on its annual needs. In the Serb Republic, wheat output is expected to cover estimated utilization. Commercial imports are expected to reach at least 86 000 tons of wheat grain equivalent, leaving a deficit of some 112 000 tons to be covered by food aid.
Latest information indicates that cereal output in 1996 is sharply reduced at an estimated 3.3 million tons, down 3.2 million tons from the previous year and about 50 percent below average. Delayed sowing due to farmers� lack of finances for inputs last autumn and adverse weather conditions at crucial stages in the growing season are the major reasons for the reduction. Of the total output, wheat is estimated to account for about 2 million tons compared to a normal harvest of about 3.5 million tons. With a large percentage of the wheat crop, only fit for animal feed use, the Agriculture Ministry expects to purchase at most some 1.2 million tons from producers for human consumption. The country�s estimated annual consumption of wheat for food is about 1.6 million tons while another million tons of low quality grain wheat is estimated to be used for feed each year. With the country�s reserve stocks sharply depleted after high exports last year, large imports of wheat will be required in 1996/97 to meet food needs while feed grain imports will also be required to make up the shortfall in production of feed wheat and other feed grain crops.
The country has already outlined plans to increase grain production in 1997 to lift grain supplies out of the current tight situation. There are plans to increase wheat and barley area up to normal levels of around 1.5 million hectares. However, there is still uncertainty as to how much funding can be secured to provide credit to farmers for inputs and machinery this autumn.
The EC has indicated that it is ready to assist the country overcome its current situation as soon as possible providing credits for investment from this autumn, while the IMF, which has already approved a U.S.$ 582 million funding programme earlier this month, has indicated that it would consider additional funding to help the country overcome its exceptional grain shortage situation.
Timely rains in mid-August benefited the 1996 spring crops, stressed by unseasonable dry weather and high temperatures in the past month. However, the dry weather favoured harvesting or the winter crops, which is well advanced. Despite generally adequate growing conditions during the season, production of wheat is forecast to decline sharply from last year due to a decrease of 21 percent in plantings as a result of diversion of land to other crops. The output is forecast to reach some 650 000 tons which is well below average.
The outlook for the 1996 cereal crops is satisfactory and FAO estimates aggregate output at some 6.7 million tons, similar to last year�s harvest. A slightly reduced wheat crop is expected to be offset by an increase in barley production.
Prospects for the 1996 cereal harvest are satisfactory and an increased output is anticipated. Winterkill was well below normal and good yields are estimated after favourable growing conditions since planting. The area under cereals is reported to be larger than in 1995 in response to high prices and reduced export availability in neighbouring states.
FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA (20 August)
Precipitation in the second dekad of August improved the outlook for the 1996 developing spring crops, mainly maize, stressed by unseasonable dry weather and high temperatures in July and early August. However, the dry weather allowed completion of the of the winter wheat crop harvesting. The output is estimated to be normal reflecting abundant precipitation during winter months.
During May and June WFP was able to fully supply all 5 500 beneficiaries. The six month pipeline is full for the main commodities, except for sugar and salt.
Latest official estimates indicate a smaller cereal crop in 1996 than earlier predicted. Wheat output is now officially forecast at a below-average 3.8 to 3.9 million tons, compared to the previous estimate of 4.2 million tons. Adverse weather in the winter and spring already reduced the potential of the wheat crop and as the harvest has progressed there is increasing evidence that wheat crops were severely damaged by weeds due to insufficient control measures. It is reported that many the country�s new small farmers who have increasingly regained control of the agricultural land since the beginning of a transition to market economy in 1989 lack funds for normal weed and pest control measures. Latest indications for the barley crop also point to a smaller output than earlier projected at about 1 million tons. By contrast, however, prospects for the 1996 maize crop are favourable. The maize area is estimated at just over 1 million hectares, similar to last year�s area but following good weather yields are expected to improve to about 5 tons per hectare, well above last year's 4.3 tons per hectare. Based on this, the maize crop is tentatively forecast at about 5 million tons, compared to 1995�s 4.6 million ton crop.
Growing conditions for 1996 crops have been good and the area sown to winter rye is estimated to have increased. Total output is expected to increase but crop yields are likely to remain depressed as a result of low input use and difficulties in obtaining remunerative prices for livestock.
The 1996 harvest outlook remains satisfactory and cereal output is expected to recover from last year�s poor level. Winter grains plantings increased and the crop suffered almost no winterkill. Spring grain sowing were up by some 6 percent and growing conditions have been favourable so far.
Contrary to earlier expectations, latest official forecasts put the 1996 cereal harvest virtually unchanged from last year�s level at 25.9 million tons. The upward revision follows exceptionally good weather in May and June and increased use of fertilizers which offset the negative impact of the harsh winter. Assuming normal weather continues for the remainder of the harvest season, wheat production is forecast at 8.7 million tons, similar to last year�s level, while barley output is expected to increase by 5 percent to about 3.5 million tons.
The 1996 wheat harvest is almost completed and output is estimated to be sharply reduced from last year following significant crop damage earlier in the season due to adverse weather. It is reported that some 15 percent of the wheat area was lost due to late snows and excessive rainfall in the spring. By late July about 70 percent of the crop was reported to be harvested and average yield per hectare was 1 890 kg compared to last year�s average yield per hectare of some 3 000 kg. As a result the aggregate wheat output in 1996 is expected to drop to about 3.4 million tons from last year�s bumper 7.7 million ton crop. Nevertheless, official reports indicate that even this reduced harvest would be sufficient to domestic demand and strategic reserve requirements, and may even allow some small quantities of exports.
With regard to maize, the country�s major summer crop, prospects are still favourable for a good crop despite land losses due to a harsh winter and bad weather. Provided the weather stays normal in for the remainder of the season output of some 9 million tons is expected.
Prospects for the 1996 winter grain crop remain satisfactory. Latest official estimates put wheat output at about 1.8 million tons, close to last year�s level. The estimates for barley, rye and oats are about 560 000 tons, 78 000 tons and 34 000 tons respectively. Due to the current tight domestic grain situation, the government has announced that this year there will be no licenses granted for wheat exports.
Light to moderate rains in the past month maintained adequate soil moisture for the 1996 developing maize crop. Prospects for the harvest remain favourable. Harvesting of the 1996 winter wheat crop, is well advanced. Following abundant rains in winter month, the output is anticipated to be normal.
YUGOSLAVIA, FED. REP. OF (SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO)* (20 August)
Precipitation in the second dekad of August improved prospects for the 1996 spring cereal crops, mainly maize, stressed by dry and warm weather in the past month. The programmed level of plantings was successfully completed following Government�s distribution of agricultural inputs and diversion of land from wheat to maize. However, the final outturn will crucially depend on rains in the next weeks.
Harvesting of the 1996 winter wheat crop is virtually completed. Despite generally favourable weather conditions during the growing season, the output is estimated to be substantially below last year�s crop and well below average. This reflects a decline of 38 percent in the area planted due to shortages of fuel at sowing time and a switch to more profitable crops.
The outlook until the end of the year is much better. The arrival of a shipment of 10 750 tons of wheat flour from a Japanese donation together with a further local purchase of 5 225 tons will strengthen the pipeline for the next months.