Cereal production in 1996 is preliminarily forecast at between 600 000-800 000 tons, compared to an estimated 554 000 tons in 1995. While wheat production is expected to remain poor due to seed shortages, the area and yield of maize are expected to increase substantially in response to better availability of hybrid maize seed and fertilizer. It is expected that the country will continue to have a large structural deficit in wheat in 1996/97 despite sharply increased bread prices and increased utilization of maize for human consumption. In 1996/97 the cereal import requirement is preliminarily estimated at 380 000 tons of wheat. Commercial imports in 1996/97 are tentatively estimated at up to 150 000 tons, leaving a requirement of 230 000 tons to be covered by credits and food aid.
WFP is targeting 300 000 displaced people from Abkhazia and other vulnerable groups with supplementary food assistance. The food pipeline is tight and donors are urged to come forward with additional funding in order to maintain current levels of assistance and to avoid disruption in targeted food distribution. Outstanding requirements for the 1996/97 UN Appeal period remain at 12 600 tons, valued at approximately U.S.$ 7.5 million.