MONGOLIA* (12 August) In the later part of July, heavy rainfall in western parts of the country caused severe flooding, left a number of people homeless and resulted in the loss of 12 lives and some 800 cattle. The worst affected provinces were Hovd and Gobi- Altai. The floods, follow wide spread and high intensity spring fires earlier, which devastated large parts of the country, seriously affecting agriculture. The loss of pasture and livestock, especially, may have serious implications for nomadic herders, overall economic recovery and the ability of the country to earn foreign exchange as animal and animal products are vital to the export sector. In addition it is likely that actual livestock losses, during the fires, will be compounded by further and more serious losses due to a shortage of pasture. As the fires also came at a critical time for land preparation and planting of wheat, it is likely that production in 1996 will be further reduced.

The fires will make a difficult and already tight food supply situation much worse. Even before the recent setbacks, the country had serious economic problems, which resulted in a substantial decline in food production and limited its capacity to import food commercially to bridge the deficit. , food crop production has declined precipitously since the early 1990s. Official estimates show that cereal production, mostly wheat, declined by almost 64 percent, from 718 000 tons in 1990 to some 261 000 tons in 1995. In addition, as April/May are critical months for wheat planting, it is possible that the fires may also adversely affect 1996 production.

The loss of pasture and livestock, especially, may have serious implications for nomadic herders, for overall economic recovery and the ability of the country to earn foreign exchange as animal and animal products are vital to the export sector. In addition, current livestock losses may be compounded by further and more serious losses in coming months, due to a shortage of pasture for feeding.

In recent years, in view of declining production and growing demand, the food deficit has been increasing, whilst the country�s ability to make commercial imports to bridge the gap has been highly constrained by economic problems and the lack of foreign exchange. (WFP to provide update on any assistance provided to the country).