The output of the 1996 cereal crop, recently harvested, is officially estimated at some 4.6 million tons, more than double last year's below-average crop. This is due to favourable weather, increased plantings and improved harvest techniques. Output of wheat is estimated to have increased by 1.3 million tons to 2.8 million tons, whilst production of barley more than tripled to 1.7 million tons, reflecting an increase in area planted and above-normal rains, particularly at the beginning of the season.
Following a sharp increase in domestic output, imports of wheat, excluding semolina, in 1996/97 (July/June) are forecast to decrease by some 20 percent to 3 million tons. Imports of coarse grains, mainly maize, are forecast at 1.1 million tons, some 700 000 tons less than 1995/96.
Breeding of Desert Locust occurred over a large and difficult area of central Sahara which extended into western Libya. During the first half of June infestations were mainly concentrated in the central Sahara. In the second half of the month, most of the hoppers near Tamanrasset were in the process of fledging and forming immature swarms. Hopper bands infestations that have escaped control operations in central Algeria have fledged and formed small immature swarms. Control operations continue. During the first half of July more than 2 000 hectares were treated.
Despite a 4 percent decline in area sown, the output of recently harvested wheat is officially estimated at 5.74 million tons, marginally higher than last year's above- average crop. Reflecting a marked decline in area sown, production of barley is estimated to have declined substantially from the record 368 000 tons harvested in 1995.
The procurement price for wheat in 1995/96 has been set at Egyptian pounds 700 (U.S.$ 205) per ton. Imports of wheat and wheat flour in 1996/97 (July/June) are forecast to decrease by some 0.5 million tons to 5.5 million tons. Imports of coarse grains, mainly maize, are expected to remain at around 2.6 million tons, similar to last year.
Inadequate rainfall until mid-November was followed by above- normal and well-distributed precipitation which resulted in combined wheat and barley planting of 5.6 million hectares. Production of wheat in 1996 is currently put at a record 5.9 million tons, sharply up from last year's drought-affected crop of only 1.1 million tons. The output of barley is estimated to have increased by more than six times to a record 3.8 million tons. The maize crop, now being harvested, is expected to have increased by 150 000 tons to 200 000 tons.
Cumulative rains in 1995/96 were 60 percent higher than normal. This has resulted in a sharp increase in the level of water reservoirs, currently estimated at 90 percent of capacity.
Imports of wheat in 1996/97 (July/June) are forecast to decline by 2 million tons to 1 million tons, whereas imports of coarse grains are expected to decline by almost one-third to 500 000 tons.
No locust activity was reported from the country during July.
As a result of larger area planted, increased use of fertilizers and favourable weather, the 1996 cereal crop is estimated at a record 2.65 million tons compared with 0.66 million tons and 0.62 million tons harvested in 1994 and 1995, respectively.
Wheat production is estimated at 1.84 million tons (1.50 million tons durum and 0.34 million tons soft wheat), more than three times the drought-affected crop in 1995. Barley output, estimated at 0.8 million tons, was ten times larger than last year's crop and twice the average.
The Government aims at achieving self-sufficiency in cereals within 10 years. As part of an effort to guarantee production of at least 1 million tons in drought years, Government plans include doubling irrigated area to 120 000 hectares by the year 2000. Farmers are also being encouraged to modernize systems of production, collection and storage.
Pasture conditions are reported to be satisfactory. Forage prices declined considerably compared to the high levels of the last two years, as a result of greater availability.
Imports of wheat (entirely soft wheat) in 1996/97 (July/June) are estimated to decrease by 700 000 tons to 0.6 million tons. Imports of maize are forecast to remain at last year's level of 0.25 million tons.