A recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission found that are planted in the 1996 season ‘B’ increased by an average of 7 percent, with major increases in sorghum and potatoes (17 percent) and pulses (14 percent). These developments reflect improved stability in interior areas and resumption of agricultural activities by a considerable number of returning refugees. Growing conditions have been generally favourable, with timely and regular rainfall except for some pockets of drought. The Mission estimated 1996 season ‘B’ cereal output at 109 000 tons, including 85 000 tons of sorghum, 12 400 tons of maize and some 5 500 tons each of wheat and paddy. The estimate for pulses is 72 000 tons, and for roots/tubers and bananas 607 000 tons and 1 049 000 tons, respectively. Compared to the season ‘B’ in 1995, these estimates suggest an increase of 38 percent for cereals, 20 percent for pulses and 14 percent for roots/tubers. The output of bananas remained roughly the same. Despite these improvements, total estimated food production in the 1996 season ‘B’ remains 23 percent below the pre-crisis level of 1990.
The flow of returning refugees has slowed down recently and was estimated by the Mission to average 10 000 people per month in 1996. On this assumption, the total population as of September 1996 would be 6 317 000. At the forecast production level, import requirements for the second semester of 1996 are estimated at 35 000 tons of cereals (including 12 000 tons of cereal equivalent corresponding to the shortfall in roots and tuber production) and 28 000 tons of pulses. After allowance for likely commercial imports, the Mission estimates a deficit of 24 000 tons of cereals and 19 000 tons of pulses in the second half of 1996. About 576 000 people will require emergency food aid during the second semester of the year, some 40 percent of them in need of targeted assistance and institutional feeding support and over one- third participating in emergency works programmes for the reconstruction of dwellings and the rehabilitation of the agricultural sector and rural infrastructure. The largest numbers of targeted beneficiaries, in relation to the total population of the prefectures, are in Butare, Gikongoro and Kibuye.
Taking into account the production of the first semester of 1996 (‘A’), the Mission estimated the total 1996 production of cereals at 182 000 tons (29 percent higher than in 1995), of pulses at 189 000 tons (41 percent higher) and that of roots/tubers and bananas at 1 144 000 tons and 2 105 000 tons (30 and 5 percent higher), respectively.
In preparation for the 1997 ‘A’ season, priority will need to be given to multiplication and large-scale diffusion of disease-free planting material for cassava and sweet potatoes, as well as the provision of inputs such as selected seeds for pulses and maize, mineral fertilizer and pesticides at affordable cost. But there is a need to look beyond the next agricultural season towards a thorough rehabilitation of the agricultural sector. International assistance will be especially important for the rehabilitation of the tea, coffee and livestock sectors.