FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report 10/96

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ZAMBIA




BACKGROUND INFORMATION

Area: 741 000 sq.km
Climate: Tropical wet-dry, one rainy season (November-April)
Population: 9.20 million (1995 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: U.S.$ 350 (1994)
Specific characteristics of the country: Low-income food-deficit country; land-locked country
Logistics: Imports through Dar es Salaam (Tanzania); inadequate rail and road connections
Major foodcrops: Maize, roots, tubers
Marketing year: May/April; Lean season: March-May
Share of cereals in total calorie intake: 70 percent



CURRENT SITUATION

The total production of the recently harvested cereal crop is estimated at 1.6 million tons, 78 percent higher than the drought-affected harvest in 1995. The maize crop is now estimated at 1.41 million tons. This is slightly below earlier estimates on account of continued rains in May/June when the crop was being harvested and was drying, but it is still above average and double last year’s output.

The food supply situation in the country is expected to improve considerably during the 1996/97 marketing year. Total cereal availability is expected to cover domestic needs including the replenishment of depleted stock reserves. The Government recently issued export permits to private traders for 50 000 tons of maize. With the continued arrival of new grains in the market, especially from South Africa, prices of maize are expected to continue to fall.



CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1996/97 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)

Wheat Rice Coarse grains Total
Normal production 53 9 1 348 1 410
Normal imports (incl. re-exports) 35 4 65 104
of which: Structural food aid 25 - 45 70
1996 Production 60 9 1 496 1 565
1996/97 Utilization 105 14 1 496 1 615
Food use 100 12 1 121 1 233
Non-food use 5 2 275 282
Possible stock build-up - - 50 50
Exports - - 50 50
1996/97 Import Requirement 45 5 - 50
Anticipated commercial imports 45 5 - 50
Food aid needs - - - -
of which: Emergency - - - -
Current Aid Position



Food aid pledges - - 11 11
of which: Delivered - - 4 4
Estimated per caput consumption (kg/year) 12 1 129 142
Indexes



1996 production as % of normal: 111
1996/97 import requirement as % of normal: 48
1996/97 food aid requirement as % of normal (including refugee needs): -

1/ Excluding food assistance required for refugees.

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