AFGHANISTAN* (16 December)

Land preparation for the 1996/97 winter grain crops is underway. The 1996 aggregate output of wheat and barley is unofficially estimated at a below-normal 1.85 million tons, reflecting serious short supplies of agricultural inputs and insecurity. The harsh winter weather has added a new element of urgency to the situation. There was heavy snowfall in Qala-i-Nau, the Badghis provincial capital. As a result of recent fighting, about 50 000 people are estimated to have fled their homes in Badghis. With night temperatures close to zero in lowland areas and snow in higher areas, health risks will increase dramatically for people living in the open or travelling across rough country. These new internally displaced people will also need emergency food assistance. Due to the arrest and intimidation of its local staff, the UNCHR has put most of its activities in Kabul on hold until the security situation improves. This coincides with the start of a vital winter relief program for Kabul. The import requirement for cereals in 1996/97, mostly wheat, is forecast at about 1.5 million tons.