Aggregate cereal production is estimate by FAO at 1.06 million tons, marginally more than the 1 million tons many official and unofficial sources put the 1995 harvest. Production of wheat, is tentatively estimated at 750 000 tons. Indications are that the area sown to winter grains for harvest in 1997 increased somewhat in response to good wheat growing potential and a sharp increase anticipated in the price of bread. Production of potatoes and vegetables in the private sector is increasing. Official data indicate that per caput consumption of cereals is declining in response to higher prices and reduced commercial import capacity. Bread prices are to be completely liberalized in April 1997, and Grain Board facilities privatized in two stages in 1997. In 1996/97 the cereal import requirement is estimated at 555 000 tons, including 500 000 tons of wheat to cover food requirements. Against the wheat import requirement, the government has already contracted 180 000 tons and anticipates that the private sector will import 300 000 tons commercially. Food aid requirement in 1996/97 is anticipated to fall sharply. Food aid needs could be limited to meet the needs of vulnerable groups and establish an intervention reserve to avoid disruption of supplies during the privatization of the State Bread Corporation.. Confirmed pledges to date amount to only 5 000 tons. In 1996/97 the country will receive direct budget support from the EC instead of food aid for monetization. Disbursement is conditional to the implementation of reforms in the agricultural sector, particularly land reform and privatization of the cereal/bread processing and distribution chain and liberalization of cereal prices. About 60 percent of the population is affected by poverty, with some 20 percent considered extremely poor. About half a million people were in need of relief assistance in 1995/96 and the economic situation has continued to deteriorate.