Insecurity persist in the country, with renewed fighting reported in the northern part of Cibitoke in late December, but also in southern Bujumbura rural and in Kayanza. The renew fighting has resulted in some 100 000 new refugees entering Tanzania. The massive return of some 239 000 refugees presently in Tanzania could have serious security and humanitarian repercussions. The food supply situation remains tight in provinces most affected by civil strife, where plantings and production have been reduced in the past seasons, as well as for returnees and displaced populations. In general, the combined effect of domestic production below pre-crisis levels and the current embargo on food imports and petrol, have resulted in sharp increase in prices of basic food limiting the access to food of the majority of the population. An estimate of the 1997 first season is not yet available. However, despite overall good rains during the season, production is likely to have been affected by insecurity and by shortages of agricultural inputs, mainly seeds and fertilisers. A FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission plans to visit the country in late January. An FAO Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the country in October 1996 found that the 1996 second foodcrop season started under favourable agroclimatic and relatively improved security conditions. In the northern and northeastern provinces representing some of the most important cereal producing areas, and where security conditions were stable, production was higher than anticipated earlier and normal. However, dry spells in April and May reduced bean production by approximately 30 percent from normal levels in Gitega, Rutana and Makamba provinces. Furthermore, Bubanza, Cibitok� and Karuzi provinces were seriously affected by the civil strife during the season which prevented crop husbandry. Production is estimated to be reduced in these provinces by as much as 50 percent. Based on the results of surveys of the second crop season undertaken earlier and on information provided by provincial directorates, the Mission estimated the 1996 second season foodcrop production at about 1.63 million tons, a drop of some 8 percent from the 1988-93 pre-crisis average and 2 percent lower than in the previous year. The Mission provisionally forecast foodcrop production for the 1996 third season at 615 000 tons, 3 percent below the previous year�s level, mainly reflecting reductions in provinces affected by civil strife. The total food production in 1996 is forecast at 3.5 million tons, some 3 percent down from the 1995 output and 4 percent below the 1988-93 pre-crisis level. This comprises 273 000 tons of cereals, 324 000 tons of pulses, 1.36 million tons of roots and tubers and 1.54 million tons of bananas and plantains. Considering normal annual consumption requirements, there was a deficit of 53 000 tons of cereals and 69 000 tons of pulses to be covered by imports. Commercial imports and food aid distributions until July 1996 were estimated at 31 000 tons of cereals and 7 000 tons of pulses, leaving a gap of 22 000 tons of cereals and 62 000 tons of pulses, which remained uncovered due to the current economic sanctions.