Seasonably dry conditions prevail. In mid-October, an FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission reviewed 1996 crop production with national services and the early warning system (SAP) of Chad. It estimated 1996 cereal production at 840 000 tons, which is slightly below last year and below average. This fall is mainly due to results from the Sahelian zone (-17 percent) since the Sudanian zone has a production level comparable to that of 1995 (515 200 tons in 1996 as against 516 500 tons in 1995). Compared to average output over the period 1991-1995, 1996 production is down by 6.4 percent. The following variations have been registered compared to last year: millet +5 percent, sorghum -17 percent, maize -4.4 percent, berebere -6.6 percent, rice + 9.7 percent.
Following this reduced crop, the food supply situation is going to be tight in 1996/97, notably in the Sahelian zone. In addition, the fact that the national security stock is almost exhausted is particularly worrisome. The recommended level of the national security stock is 22 000 tons, as estimated by an FAO mission in 1995. In early November, the National Early Warning System (SAP) estimated the need for the vulnerable populations in the Sahelian zone at 17 500 tons of cereals to be distributed during 6 months from March. The most affected populations are in Biltine prefecture which experienced drought for a second year and pest attacks. The Government has sent 160 tons of sorghum to be sold at subsidized price in that Prefecture. Food supply difficulties are also anticipated in Batha prefectire following reduced crops and damage by grasshoppers and grain-eating birds. In early December, the government launched an appeal for external assistance amounting to 50 000 tons of cereals. Half of this amount is necessary to cover the needs for distributions or sales at subsidized prices in 1997 and the rest to reconstitute the national security stock before next marketing year