COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES
The 1996 harvest is officially put at 340 000 tons, nearly 70 000 tons more than in 1995. Despite extensive winterkill, crop yields increased sharply in response to good spring rains, increased use of fertilizer and improved availability of fuel. Moreover, price liberalization of bread and the progressive privatization of the grain processing/distribution chain have increased producer incentives and reduced motivation to under-report actual yields. Production of potatoes , vegetables and grapes also increased.
The area sown to winter grains, for harvest in 1997 is also estimated to have increased further.
In 1996/97 the cereal import requirement is estimated to fall to 320 000 tons. Concessional credits have been received to import up to 65 000 tons of wheat from the US. The counterpart funds from its sale, at market prices, will constitute a revolving fund to finance commercial imports of wheat by the government. Most of the balance is expected to be imported on a commercial basis by the private sector which has expanded very rapidly following the complete liberalization of bread prices. In 1996/97 the country will receive direct budget support from the EC instead of food aid for monetization. Disbursement is conditional to the implementation of reforms in the agricultural sector, particularly land reform and privatization of the cereal/bread processing and distribution chain.
There will continue to be a need for emergency food aid for vulnerable groups. The population targeted for food assistance is around 400 000. WFP is assisting 250 000 people and has a food pipeline covering needs until April. Donors are urged to pled more relief food assistance to Armenia.
Aggregate cereal production is estimate by FAO at 1.06 million tons, marginally more than the 1 million tons many official and unofficial sources put the 1995 harvest. Production of wheat, is tentatively estimated at 750 000 tons. Indications are that the area sown to winter grains for harvest in 1997 increased somewhat in response to good wheat growing potential and a sharp increase anticipated in the price of bread. Production of potatoes and vegetables in the private sector is increasing.
Official data indicate that per caput consumption of cereals is declining in response to higher prices and reduced commercial import capacity. Bread prices are to be completely liberalized in April 1997, and Grain Board facilities privatized in two stages in 1997. In 1996/97 the cereal import requirement is estimated at 555 000 tons, including 500 000 tons of wheat to cover food requirements. Against the wheat import requirement, the government has already contracted 180 000 tons and anticipates that the private sector will import 300 000 tons commercially. Food aid requirement in 1996/97 is anticipated to fall sharply. Food aid needs could be limited to meet the needs of vulnerable groups and establish an intervention reserve to avoid disruption of supplies during the privatization of the State Bread Corporation.. Confirmed pledges to date amount to only 5 000 tons. In 1996/97 the country will receive direct budget support from the EC instead of food aid for monetization. Disbursement is conditional to the implementation of reforms in the agricultural sector, particularly land reform and privatization of the cereal/bread processing and distribution chain and liberalization of cereal prices.
About 60 percent of the population is affected by poverty, with some 20 percent considered extremely poor. About half a million people were in need of relief assistance in 1995/96 and the economic situation has continued to deteriorate.
An increase in fertilizer applications and better growing conditions for both the winter and spring crops have led to a 1996 grain harvest of 6.5 million tons, nearly 1 million tons more than in 1995. The private sector accounted for about 500 000 tons or 8 percent of output. Output of wheat increased by 300 000 tons to about 750 000 tons while that of coarse grains rose by 500 000 tons to 5.5 million tons. Production of pulses reached nearly 300 000 tons.
The area sown to winter crops, for harvest in the spring of 1997 has remained stable at 1.15 million hectares. The crop entered dormancy in satisfactory condition.
The 1996/97 import requirement for cereals is expected to decline to about 400 000 tons from 687 000 tons in 1995/96 and to be sourced mainly from neighbouring CIS countries, notably the Russian Federation and the Ukraine.
The 1996 cereal and pulse harvest is estimated officially at 635 000 tons, higher than earlier estimated, despite mixed growing conditions. The areas sown to winter grains (mainly wheat and barley) for harvest in 1997 are also estimated to have increased by about 50 000 hectares despite persistent shortages of seed.
Consumption of maize-meal has increased sharply in response to price liberalization of bread. The government estimates 1996/97 cereal import requirement at 300 000 tons of wheat against some 460 000 tons imported mainly as food aid last year. The commercial imports of wheat flour by the private sector have increased rapidly and are expected to cover market needs. Food aid will continue to be required to meet the needs of the most vulnerable groups. So far, food aid allocations, including those carried forward from last year, amount to 53 000 tons. In 1996/97 the country will receive direct budget support from the EC instead of food aid for monetization. Disbursement is conditional to the implementation of reforms in the agricultural sector, particularly land reform and privatization of the cereal/bread processing and distribution chain.
In view of severe budget constraints, inadequate social security, very low official salaries and widespread unemployment, the number of food-insecure people in need of assistance is estimated at 600 000-700 000, mainly internally displaced, host families, mothers with young infants, pensioners, the disabled and inmates of social institutions.
Given an area planted to grains of 17.1 million hectares, and an average yield of about 760 kg. per hectare, this year�s harvest is forecast by FAO at 13.3 million tons cleanweight. Although better growing conditions resulted in a larger harvest than last year, output remains well below average for the last five years due to steady reduction in area planted, a sharp drop in fertilizer use in the past two years, dry conditions in the north west, and difficult harvest conditions in September and October. FAO�s estimate is higher than the final official estimate of 11.6 million tons as there are strong indications that farmers and elevators under-report the yield of marketable crops. Wheat production is estimated by FAO at 9 million tons this year, while coarse grain output is estimated at around 4 million tons.
Production of cereals for export is profitable. Customs and grain exchange data indicate that the country probably exported more than 5 million tons of grain in 1995/96, by sharply drawing down stocks and reducing feed use of grains. In 1996/97, Kazakhstan could export up to 4 million tons of wheat and about 400 000 tons of coarse grains to traditional customers, the Russian Federation and the neighbouring states. However the Federal procurement target of 1.1 million tons as well as the oblast procurement targets have to be met before grain may be exported legally.
The bulk of the 1997 crop will not be planted until the spring. Rapid progress in privatizing grain production and distribution has increased the scope for farmers to market grain and could result in increased use of yield enhancing inputs by the best farms in the coming year.
The 1996 cereal harvest is officially reported to have reached 1.4 million tons, including 1.04 tons of wheat. This is just over 50 percent more than last year, due to an increase in the area sown, significantly better yields than last year and the effects of reform in the grain sector. Growing conditions were markedly better this year and in addition better management and increased utilization of inputs on the commercially oriented farms has boosted average yields and reduced harvest losses. The area sown to winter grains for harvest in 1997 could remain stable following a sharp increase last year.
Following a sharp increase in production, the country is self sufficient in cereals this year and has a exportable surplus of wheat which it could use to barter for gas with Turkmenistan. However, vulnerable groups will continue to need targeted assistance. In 1996/97 the country will receive direct budget support from the EC instead of food aid for monetization. Disbursement is conditional to the implementation of reforms in the agricultural sector, particularly land reform and privatization of cereal/bread processing and distribution.
Persistent hot and dry conditions at critical stages of growth in both winter and spring crops have reduced average yields by a third. As a result, aggregate output of cereals and pulses in 1996 fell to about 1.7 million tons from 2.6 million tons last year. Output of wheat is forecast at only 0.7 million tons compared to 1.1 million tons in 1995, whilst coarse grains were even more severely affected .
Although the country was a small net exporter of cereals in 1995/96, it is expected that it will need to import some 215 000 tons of cereals in 1996/97, including 150 000 tons of wheat as well as rye and some barley for animal feed.
RUSSIAN FEDERATION (2 December)
FAO�s forecast of the 1996 harvest of cereals and pulses remains at around 75 million tons, cleaned weight, compared to an estimated 68 million tons last year. This is about 8 percent higher than the official estimate of 75 million tons, bunker weight, as it takes into account the tendency for farmers to underreport crop yields or to report crop yields after deduction of service charges for machinery and elevators paid in kind. Output of wheat, at more than 38 million tons, is expected to be more than six million tons higher than last year in response to a 2 million hectare increase in the area sown and better yields. Output of coarse grains is estimated at nearly 34 million tons, about one million tons higher than the drought-reduced crop of 1995, despite a reduction of almost 3 million hectares in the area sown. Output of rice, pulses, potatoes, sugarbeet and vegetables are also estimated to be lower than last year Although the grain harvest is better than last year, it remains well below the average for the last five years.
Demand for cereals has fallen sharply in recent years, as imports of meat have replaced up to 20 million tons of feedgrains. Official consumption data indicate that human consumption of grains has remained stable in the past three years, with reduced waste thought to offset higher per caput intake. In 1996/97, cereal imports are expected to decline to about 4 million tons, and include 3 million tons of wheat. The bulk of these imports are likely to be sourced from Kazakhstan and Ukraine, leaving an estimated 0.5 million tons of wheat to be imported from outside the CIS, for the Far East. Imports of coarse grains are forecast to decline by about half a million tons to 800 000 tons, including barley and maize, the latter mostly from outside the CIS. Imports of rice are estimated to fall to about 150 000 tons from 260 000 tons in 1995/96, including CIS intra-trade. Exports of cereals in 1996/97 are tentatively forecast at around 1 million tons, fairly evenly split between wheat and coarse grains.
With regard to next year�s harvest, both the area sown to winter crops, for harvest in the summer of 1997 (14.5 million hectares) and the area ploughed in the autumn in preparation for spring plantings have declined. In general, these crops have entered dormancy in mostly satisfactory condition. The government plans to keep budget allocations for agriculture close to levels last year.
Systematic and reliable information on agricultural production is difficult to obtain in this strife-torn country and official reports of the 1996 harvest are conflicting. The area sown to cereals has increased very sharply to about 400 000 hectares, of which 150 000 hectares were irrigated. A certain amount flood damage occurred in May and shortages of all kinds have again affected average crop yields but nevertheless there is general agreement that the cereal harvest this year is of the order of 400 000 tons, significantly higher than last year�s ( 260 000 tons) and higher than the official estimate of 280 000 tons.
The higher estimate is corroborated by an FAO Mission which visited the country in June/July 1996 and found that cereal yields were being underestimated, particularly for wheat. From a variety of sources, the Mission received similar information: on reasonable areas of irrigated land , wheat yields averaged between 1.5-2.5 tons per hectare, while on rainfed land yields were rarely over 1 ton per hectare. Growing conditions this year have been better than last year and some areas were expecting very good yields of up to 4 tons per hectare. Assuming an average yield of 1.75 tons per hectare in irrigated areas and 0.6 tons per hectare in rainfed areas, output is reasonably projected at around 400 000 tons.
Output of most other foodcrops and fodder are forecast to decline as land has been diverted to wheat. Output of cotton, the main cash crop, has fallen by almost 25 percent to 320 000 tons.
A nutrition survey by German Agro-Action has documented a sharp deterioration in the nutritional situation since 1993 throughout the country, as a result of widespread poverty. Even with higher cereal production in 1996, the country faces a substantial foodgrain deficit which it is unable to cover in view of severe foreign exchange constraints and the poor cotton harvest this year. Cereal requirement in 1996/97 is estimated at 760 000 tons including 660 000 tons for human consumption (or about 360 grams per person per day for a population of 5.5 million), and 100 000 tons for feed and other uses, mainly seed. Domestic supplies amount to 390 000 tons (excluding pulses with rice in milled equivalent), leaving an import requirement of 370 000 tons. The commercial import capacity is very limited. The government has requested 180 000 tons of food aid in wheat to cover foodgrain needs between January and June 1997 as well as assistance in the form of machinery, agro-chemicals and seed to increase domestic food production. In 1996/97 the country will receive direct budget support from the EC instead of food aid for monetization. Disbursement is conditional to the implementation of reforms in the agricultural sector, particularly land reform and privatization of cereal/bread processing and distribution and liberalization of cereal prices. Such reforms are likely to increase the need of targeted assistance for the most vulnerable. Vulnerable people continue to need targeted humanitarian assistance. These include populations displaced as a result of civil strife, elderly pensioners, war-widows with children, large single-parent families, orphans and the disabled/invalids. The population targeted for food assistance is around 600 000. WFP, NGOs, IFRC and ICRC are distributing relief food. The response to the recent UN Donor Alert has been encouraging and pledges cover WFP needs to August.
Over-expansion of the areas sown to wheat has led to partial crop failure in 1996. In an attempt to achieve self- sufficiency in wheat, the area planted of cereals has been expanded to nearly 700 000 hectares in 1996, from around 187 000 hectares in 1990. Average wheat yields, however, have declined steadily since 1994 as additional marginal land, with inadequate irrigation, was brought into production while investment in farm machinery, spare parts and inputs declined and compulsory deliveries of virtually the entire crop to the state at low, fixed prices offered few incentives to farmers to increase yields. In 1996, the average yield of wheat roughly halved to less than 1 ton per hectare as a result of inadequate irrigation, extremely late planting and very little fertilizer application. The aggregate output of cereals in 1996 is officially estimated at only 400 000 tons, compared to 1 million tons in 1995. For 1997, the wheat area target has been reduced from 600 000 hectares to 400 000 hectares. .
In 1996/97, the cereal consumption requirement is estimated at 1.26 million tons and includes nearly 650 000 tons for human consumption, while feed use and other uses of cereals is expected to contract by almost 350 000 tons to some 500 000 tons as foreign exchange and budget constraints limit the amount of subsidized bread that can be provided. Following the partial failure of the wheat harvest and a poor cotton harvest, the country has requested assistance in the form of concessional credits or food aid in wheat to help cover the 1996/97 cereal import requirement estimated at between 500 000 and 700 000 tons.
FAO estimates that unfavourable growing conditions in May/June, coupled with shortages of inputs and machinery reduced the 1996 grain harvest (including pulses) to 26.6 million tons, from an estimated 35 million tons in 1995. Lower wheat yields were partially offset by larger areas planted and reduced winterkill, and wheat output, at 15 million tons, is estimated at two million tons less than in 1995. However, output of coarse grains fell nearly 40 percent, to 10 million tons as, in addition to a lower area, yields were also reduced. FAO�s estimates of grain production are somewhat higher than the official estimates as there is strong evidence that yields are under-reported by as much as 5-10 percent as wheat and malting barley are diverted out of state controlled channels.
The country became a significant net exporter of grains in 1995/96, exporting an estimated 1.2 million tons of wheat (mainly as flour) and almost half a million tons of coarse grains to other CIS countries. In 1996/97, in view of the poor harvest and import tariffs imposed by the Russian Federation, exports are estimated to fall to below 1 million tons of cereals, mostly wheat.
With regard to the 1997 harvest, the area sown to winter crops on reorganized state farms increased by about .5 million hectares to 8.2 million hectares. Indications are that the area sown to winter wheat again increased sharply.
The 1996 cereal and pulse harvest is officially estimated at 2.7 million tons. Output has fallen well short of the target of 4.5 million tons and close to last year�s level. Although the area sown to grains has increased steadily in recent year, average yields have declined in response to inadequate producer incentives, cropping practices and low availability of inputs for larger areas, which probably reduced yields. Only grain and cotton remain subject to compulsory state orders.
The country remains heavily dependent on grain imports for its consumption needs. Because of low carryover stocks, imports of nearly 2.4 million tons are estimated to be necessary in 1996/97, a level slightly above last year. Imports of wheat are estimated at 2.2 million tons while imports of coarse grains are put at nearly 200 000 tons. One million tons of wheat and 50 000 tons of maize are expected to be imported from abroad. The balance is likely to be sourced in neighbouring countries, notably Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation.
The aggregate 1996 cereal crop is estimated at 210.1 million tons, 15 percent up from output in the previous year. The increase is mainly attributed to larger plantings following the reduced set-aside restrictions but also good yields reflecting favourable weather conditions. Early prospects for the 1997 cereal crops are generally satisfactory. Wheat production is expected to increase again this year following a further reduction of set-aside restrictions, by 50 percent, to 5 percent and excellent planting conditions for winter- sown crops. Early indications point to expanded wheat area in France, Germany and the United Kingdom but farmers in some other northern countries, such as Denmark, are reported to have switched land to winter barley. In Spain, heavy rain in the southern region of Andalusia has damaged wheat and other crops. Other southern EC countries are also reported to have had more than adequate rainfall.
Prospects for the overwintering grain crop (mostly wheat) are uncertain. Due to price incentives, farmers were expected to plant more wheat last autumn, but much will have depended on the availability of inputs, in particular high quality seeds. In an effort to boost imports, deliveries and the use of quality seeds during this year's autumn sowing campaign, the government abolished customs duties and value added tax on wheat seed. This was reported to effectively reduce the cost of wheat seeds to the farmer by 20 percent.
Latest reports on the 1996 cereal crop indicate production fell further from the already reduced level in 1995. Wheat production in 1996 is estimated at 305 000 tons which would be 26 percent down from 1995. At this level, Albania will continue to rely on wheat imports in 1996/97 (July/June) to meet its needs for its staple bread production, especially in urban areas. The country's food consumption of wheat in 1996/97 (July/June) is estimated at some 700 000 tons, implying at least 400 000 tons of wheat would have to be imported for food consumption alone (assuming all of the estimated 1996 crop is also available for food use).
BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA* (1 December)
Winter wheat planting of the 1997 harvest has now been completed. The area planted is estimated larger than in the previous year reflecting the improved availability of agricultural inputs in the Serb Republic following the lifting of the international embargo. However, in the Bosnia- Herzegovina Federation plantings of wheat are estimated to have decreased for the second consecutive year from the well above average levels of the war period.
The 1996 aggregate cereal production increased substantially form the previous year�s level in both the Serb Republic and the Bosnia-Herzegovina Federation. Production of other food staples, mainly potatoes also recovered considerably. The total wheat import requirement in the 1996/97 marketing year (July/June) was estimated at some 214 000 tons. With commercial imports expected at a minimum of 86 000 tons of wheat grain equivalent, the food aid requirement amount to 112 000 tons.
Food security have improved throughout the country with the cessation of hostilities and the progressive normalization of economic and trade activities. However, the limited purchasing power remained a constraint to food access. In general, living conditions in the country are gradually improving with reconstruction and re-habilitation projects being carried out in all areas. Nevertheless, continuing political uncertainty and insecurity at local level is hampering the return of many refugees and internally displaced people.
Official reports in mid-December indicate that about 1.5 million hectares of winter grains despite a slow start due to unfavourably wet conditions and farmers' lack of funds for inputs. Wheat is estimated to have been sown on 1.2 million hectares while barley accounts for 280 000 hectares. Assuming normal weather conditions, this level of plantings should ensure sufficient bread wheat production for domestic consumption in 1997/98 (July/June).
After smaller plantings and unfavourable growing conditions last year, the 1996 cereal harvest was sharply reduced, at an estimated 3 million tons, which combined with high exports in the previous year, has led to the current grain shortage. The country will have to rely heavily on imports this year to meet expected domestic food and feed consumption requirements.
Planting of the 1997 wheat harvest was completed under favourable weather conditions. Although an estimate of the area planted is not yet available, plantings were expected to increase from last year with the planned area set at 300 000 hectares, against 200 000 hectares in 1996. The 1996 maize harvest is preliminary estimated higher than in 1995 reflecting an increase of 22 percent in the area planted and normal yields. However, production figures are not yet available. The country is expected to have exportable surplus of between 300 000 and 400 000 tons of maize in 1996/97 (September/October).
Latest estimates of the wheat output indicate a crop of 795 000 tons slightly down on the previous year.
While the 1997 cereal crop is more than sufficient to cover domestic requirements, production remained well below the average of the pre-war period.
Latest official reports on the 1996 cereal harvest indicate slightly better results than earlier expected for wheat , barley and oats, but lower rye output. Output of the major crop, wheat, is now estimated at 3.7 million tons, almost 3 percent up from the previous estimate but still about 2 percent down from 1995. By contrast, barley production now estimated at 2.3 million tons, would be almost 8 percent up from the previous year. In aggregate, 1996 cereal production is estimated at about 6.7 million tons, just marginally above the previous year's level.
Following difficulties encountered procuring earlier contracted wheat from farmers, the Czech Fund for Market Regulation has increased the price for wheat required to replenish state emergency reserves, and has modified quality requirements.
The 1996 grain harvest is provisionally forecast at almost 600 000 tons, nearly 13 percent more than output last year in response to high international cereal prices and better yields but still well below average. The areas sown to foodgrains winter grains and pulses increased in response to good demand but that sown to feedgrains declined. Production of pulses is being expanded to help compensate for the protein deficiency in animal feed. With regard to the 1997 grain harvest, the aggregate areas sown to cereals could continue their declining trend but that sown to winter foodgrains is likely to increase further.
FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA (23 December)
Planting of the 1997 winter wheat crop is completed. Early prospects are favourable reflecting adequate weather conditions so far.
Latest estimates of the 1996 cereal crop put the aggregate output at a reduced level of 519 000 tons, some 28 percent lower than in the previous year. Following dry spells during the growing season all cereal crops experienced production decreases. As a result of the 1996 poor harvest, cereal supplies are anticipated to be tight during marketing year 1996/97 (July/June).
Prospects for the 1997 winter cereal crops are uncertain. Autumn field operations in 1996 got off to a poor start due to heavy rains in September, and many of the winter crops were sown after the optimum period. Although high wheat prices were a strong incentive to farmers to plant wheat, the reduced planting period may have resulted in a smaller area compared to 1995. Planting of the small winter barley crop was completed earlier and official estimates indicate just 110 000 to 120 000 hectares have been sown compared to 150 000 in the previous year.
Latest official estimates put the 1996 cereal harvest at about 10.6 million tons, marginally down from 1995's crop of 11 million tons. Output of wheat, the major food crop, is estimated to have fallen sharply to 3.9 million tons, compared to 4.6 million tons last year, while barley production also fell, to just below 1 million tons, from 1.4 million tons in 1995. Reduced production of these crops is reported to be mainly due to unfavourable weather at planting time last year and financial constraints on producers. For the summer maize crop, the adverse affect of limited inputs was more than offset by the favourable hot and humid summer conditions, and production of maize is estimated to have increased to 5.4 million tons from 4.6 million tons in the previous year. The Government had earlier earmarked export licences for 1.2 million tons of wheat and wheat flour, but high domestic prices have only allowed for about 150 000 to 200 000 tons of wheat to be sold abroad by late October.
Good demand for foodgrains and better growing conditions have occasioned a sharp increase in the 1996 cereal harvest provisionally forecast at 900 000 tons. Both the area and yield increased but nevertheless the harvest remains well below the 5 year average. In 1996/97 the cereal import requirement is estimated to fall to about 130 000 tons as demand for imported feedgrains remains slack.
The 1996 harvest is provisionally forecast at 2.5 million tons, in response to a 7 percent increase in the areas sown and better yields.. The area sown to winter( food) grains increased sharply in response to the announcement of higher guaranteed prices for agricultural produce in July 1995 and more than offset the decline in the spring feedgrain area. The area sown to grains for harvest in 1997 has likely increased and growing conditions favoured crop establishment.
Latest estimates put the 1996 cereal harvest at about 24.7 million tons, some 5 percent down from 1995�s crop but still about the average of the past five years. Official reports indicate that with this level of production, the country will need to import between 1.3 and 1.7 million tons of cereals in 1996/97 (July/June). To facilitate needed grain imports, the country has extended its zero-duty on imported grain for another six month period ending on July 31, 1997.
Despite a slow start to winter grain planting in October 1996, due largely to the farmers� lack of cash to purchase fuel, preliminary reports indicate the final area sown to wheat is around 2 million hectares compared to the target of 2.3 million hectares. This is about 20 percent up from the estimate of the reduced area harvested in 1996 but much could still depend on weather conditions during the winter. A similar area was originally sown for the 1996 crop but the harsh winter last year damaged much of the crop.
Latest estimates put the 1996 cereal output at 14.5 million tons, almost 26 percent down from 1995�s bumper crop and below the average of the past 5 years. The output of the summer maize crop has just been completed following favourable autumn weather, and output is now put at 9.5 million tons, almost unchanged from last year�s output.
Continuing tight cereal supplies, particularly for feed grains, are in prospect following the 1996 reduced harvest. The 1996 cereal crop is now estimated at some 3.3 million tons, 5 percent below the 1995 crop. Wheat output is now officially estimated at 1.73 million tons, compared to over 1.9 million tons last year. It is reported that some 200 000 tons to 300 000 tons of imports of feed grains will be required in the current marketing year to cover forecast needs. To avoid aggravating the tight supply situation, the government has announced that no export licences for cereals will be issued in 1996/97.
Planting of the 1997 winter wheat crop is completed. Early prospects are favourable reflecting generally adequate weather conditions so far.
The 1996 aggregate cereal production was normal.
YUGOSLAVIA, FED. REP. OF (SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO)* (24 December)
Planting of the 1997 wheat crop is completed. Preliminary estimates indicate an area planted of some 820 000 hectares, some 4 percent below the planned level but 44 percent larger than the previous year� reduced level. Weather conditions have been generally favourable so far but, however, farmers� financial difficulties for buying agricultural inputs could negatively affect yields.
Latest estimates of the 1996 maize harvest indicate a crop of 5.3 million tons, a decline of eight percent form last year�s level of 5.7 million tons. The decrease reflects reduced yields, following prolonged dry weather during summer, that more than offset an increase in plantings. However, at this level the country�s export surplus is about 800 000 tons. Production of potato crop was also affected by dry weather and it is estimated 17 percent down on 1996.
Wheat production at 1.5 million tons was only half the previous year�s level due to lower plantings and yields. Reflecting the 1996 poor harvest of wheat the country, normally self-sufficiency in wheat, will have to import 300 000 tons this year. Prices in domestic market have increased by 200 percent since the beginning of 1996, with bread prices up to 60 percent.