An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the country in late October/early November estimated the national long-rains maize crop for 1996 at 1.82 million tons. The short-rains maize crop is forecast at 403 000 tons, bringing total estimated maize production for 1996/97 season to 2.22 million tons compared to 2.7 million tons in the 1995/96 season, a decrease of 18 percent. This decline reflects both lower planting and yields. As a result of low farm gate prices in 1995, some farmers in main producing areas reduced long-rains maize planting in favour of increased wheat cultivation. Reduced use of fertilizer and high-quality seed, a decision spurred by high input prices, negatively affected yields. By contrast, a considerable increase in short-rains maize plantings is expected to compensate partially for this shortfall. Production of long- rains sorghum and millet is estimated at 109 000 tons with a further 90 000 tons of sorghum and millet forecast from the short-rains crop, most of which is now being planted. This could represent an increase in production of 49 percent over the previous year. The net result for total coarse grains production is an expected decline of 15 percent in the current crop year. Wheat production is expected to increase by 12 percent over that of 1995/96 to 350 000 tons. Paddy production is expected to be similar to that of a year ago, at 47 000 tons. Total pulse crop production is estimated at 377 500 tons, some 25 percent below that of 1995; almost one half of this is forecast to be produced in the short-rains season, mainly in Eastern Province, where the long-rains season failed this year. In the Eastern, Coastal, North East and Lower parts of the Central provinces, rains failed for the second year and the food situation is tight. The most affected areas are the districts of Mwingi, Kitui, Kieni, Muranga, Machakos, Kwale and the pastoralist zones of the North Eastern province, where action needs to be taken to avert a serious food crisis. Forecasts for the short-rains crop assume adequate rainfall during the period from November 1996 to January 1997. However, the outlook for the short rains crop is poor. A delayed start of the rainy season was followed by adequate rains in late November, which improved prospects, but below average precipitation in several areas of the Central and Eastern provinces in December stressed developing crops. Given that the short rains normally stop in mid-December the probability of more needed precipitation in January are scarce. As a result, the 1996/97 production are likely to be lower than forecast by the FAO/WFP Mission and the shortfall in maize and pulse considerable higher. Nevertheless, the overall deficit could be met through commercial imports. This will require lifting the two-year old ban on maize imports imposed in 1995 and some forward planning by the Government now, by giving traders the right economic signals, to ensure that import requirements will be met when they are expected to take effect in April 1997, lasting until September. As a result of the failure of the long-rains in some provinces, it is estimated that 1.6 million individuals immediately require relief assistance in the drought stressed areas until the next harvest in February 1997. A large part of the relief food requirements and of the overall shortfall will be covered by the Government as well as a combination of measures indicated above for stimulating commercial imports. However, the anticipated short rains crop failure in many areas, will have serious consequences for the currently drought-affected population which is largely deprived of whatever coping mechanisms, and the requirements for relief assistance will increased.