Seasonably dry conditions prevail. In October, on the basis of the national production survey, a joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission estimated 1996 aggregate cereal production at 208 000 tons which is 6 percent below the 1995 level but remains above average. The largest drop in production is anticipated for low-lying and Walo crops (37 percent and 60 percent respectively). For the Diéri crops, the decline could be in the order of 5 percent. In contrast, the irrigated crops have increased significantly. In November, a new multi- disciplinary mission visited all wilayas of the country and estimated that planted areas for off-season crops were lower than previously indicated and reviewed significantly downwards the production estimates on the basis of its qualitative observations. The second phase of the national production survey is scheduled to start in early January and will provide the final results of 1996 harvest. Small populations of Desert Locust adults and a few swarms are present in northern and western Mauritania. Due to low temperatures, they are expected to persist in these areas and slowly mature. The threat of swarms moving south along the coast and entering Senegal in the Senegal River Valley, where a few swarms were seen, is assessed to be very low.
The overall food supply situation is anticipated to be tight for certain populations affected by a poor crop in rainfed production areas, notably in Brakna and Gorgol regions. An assessment of their needs is going to be undertaken shortly. Food assistance is being distributed to Tuareg refugees in one camp in the east of the country. Their number is currently estimated at 28 000. Since June 1996, about 17 000 refugees returned to Mali. The repatriation process is anticipated to be completed by mid-1997.