Seasonably dry conditions prevail. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission which visited Mali in mid-October estimated 1996 aggregate cereal production at 2.2 million tons. This is greater than the average of the last five years (+ 3 percent) and more than last season (+6 percent). This increase in production is thought to be due to the high yields obtained from the main products since the total area under cereal cultivation is slightly lower than in 1995 (-1 percent). Millet, rice and wheat production will rise significantly by 12 percent, 27 percent and 67 percent respectively compared to the 1995/96 figures. As regards maize and sorghum, there has been a fall in production both in relation to the 1995/96 figures (11 percent and 3 percent) and to the average for the last five years (13 percent and 3 percent). These falls are due to a drop in yields. In addition to these forecasts, off-season output must be taken into account whose forecasts for 1996/97 are put at about 49 000 tons, comprising rice (33 000 tons), maize (14 000 tons) and sorghum (2 000 tons).
Following this relatively good harvest, the overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Prices of sorghum and maize, which had increased significantly during the first half of 1996, notably in Kayes, Koulikoro, Mopti and S�gou, started to decrease in late September in several regions. Supply of cereals is adequate. The national early warning system estimated that no food distribution is necessary for the moment but that several arrondissements in the north may face economic difficulties in 1997. In early 1996, it recommended distribution of a total of 8 567 tons of food aid for 317 100 people in areas affected by a reduced crop in 1995. These quantities have been released from the National Security Stock and distributed from June to mid-August. Food assistance has also been given since May to the Tuaregs who have started to return from the camps of Annefis and Inabague in the Kidal region of Mauritania.