Harvesting of the 1996/97 secondary “Der” cereal crop, normally accounting for some 25 percent of the annual cereal production, has started. Prospects are unfavourable reflecting delayed and poorly distributed rains during the season, coupled with a decline in plantings due to the late precipitation and prevailing insecurity in the several areas. Preliminary estimates of the area planted indicate a decrease of one-third from the previous “Der” season for the sorghum crop, to 120 000 hectares, not compensated by an increase of 17 percent in the area under maize, mainly in irrigated areas, to 59 000 hectares. As the rainy season normally ending by mid-December, the probabilities of additional rains are scarce and the total cereal production for the 1996/97 “Der” season is forecast at 61 000 tons, a decline of 45 percent from the normal 1995/96 level. Sorghum production is put at 72 000 tons, while that of maize at 37 000 tons. With the anticipated reduced 1996/97 “Der”, food shortages are expected in parts, particularly in the Gedo, Lower Juba and Hiraam regions, where the main “Gu” crop was poor. The 1996 main “Gu” harvest was estimated by a FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission at 243 000 tons of cereals, an increase of 47 percent from the previous year but still over one-third less than the pre-civil war average. This reflects a significant increase in production in the important growing Bay region and the Northwest which, together, account for half of the country’s production. However, production declined sharply elsewhere due to drought, insect damage and/or flooding. If forecast of the secondary “Der” season materialized, the cereal import requirement in the 1996/97 marketing year is likely to increase by some 44 000 tons from the 203 000 tons forecast by the FAO/WFP Mission. From this forecast, commercial imports were expected to rise during the year to an annual net import of 160 000 tons of cereals (mostly rice and wheat). The remaining gap of 43 000 tons needed to be covered by food aid, including 19 000 tons of emergency food aid for the worst affected areas. The final food aid requirements will need to be revised in the light of the final production estimates of the “Der” crop and farmers’ coping mechanisms in the areas where the harvest is reduced.