A recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission forecast that total cereal production would reach 5.33 million tons in 1996/97 comprising 4.10 million tons of sorghum, 0.49 million tons of millet, 0.64 million tons of wheat (to be harvested in April 1997), and a relatively small quantity of maize (0.09 million tons) mainly produced in the south. These forecasts include a fuller estimate of production in southern Sudan and imply an underestimation in earlier years of about 250 000 tons in this region. Discounting this one-off statistical increase, the 1996/97 harvest is 50 percent higher than the final MANRAW estimates of last year’s disappointing production. Sorghum is 61 percent higher, millet 23 percent and wheat is expected to be up 17 percent. Total cereal production is slightly higher than even the 1994/95 excellent crop; sorghum and wheat are significantly higher but millet is only half of the production in that exceptional year. Major increases in the planted area of sorghum, stimulated by high prices at planting time, allied to better than average supplies of fuel and fertilizer and in the greater use of high potential cultivars combined to provide the conditions for the highest sorghum crop in recent years. Rainfall was good early in the season, but a dry spell, starting in June in the Gedaref area and affecting many other productive areas in July, had the effect of reducing yield potential at a critical time in the growth cycle. Some crops were not planted until the dry period ended and this resulted in attacks on crops by sorghum midge. In some areas, such as parts of Renk, the rains ended prematurely in early October, leaving late planted crops suffering moisture stress during the grain-fill stage, resulting in smaller grains and lower yields. Pest and disease attacks on sorghum were, however, lower than average throughout the country. Lack of credit for weeding resulted in some crops suffering from high levels of weed competition. Striga remains a major problem in sorghum in most areas of the country, though efforts are being made to counter this problem weed by improving crop rotations. Machinery shortages limited planted areas in some of the mechanized sector and may cause some losses of crop on larger farms due to shedding of grain caused by late harvesting. Millet crops have fared much less well than sorghum since these are mainly grown in the northern half of Darfur and Kordofan, where rainfall was poor and uneven in mid-season. All areas in the West, north of 13° latitude experienced long dry periods in August-September which badly affected millet crops, traditionally planted in the sandy “goz” soils. In addition, grasshopper damage to early crops in North and West Darfur necessitated replantings which suffered badly from poorly distributed rain later in the season. Although the total area planted to millet was good, more than half the crop is estimated to be unproductive. The poor crops remaining have, in many areas, been subject to late attacks of millet headworm, further reducing yields. Although millet production is better than last year’s very poor production in nearly all areas, stocks are very much lower than a year ago (when there was a large carryover from 1994/95) and millet supplies will be inadequate in North Darfur, North Kordofan, the north-west of West Kordofan, the north of South Darfur and in the Geneina province of West Darfur. The overall food outlook for 1996/97 is therefore favourable, but at the levels of certain provinces and states the food supply situation is likely to be precarious. Despite the overall sorghum surplus, the six states in Darfur and Kordofan, Red Sea State and the South as a whole, will all be in deficit - by a total amount of around 600 000 tons. Some of these deficit amounts will be corrected through normal internal trade but, especially in the cases of North Kordofan and North Darfur, some areas and sectors of the population will have difficulty in meeting their food needs. In these vulnerable areas (particularly north of 13°) production is very low, stocks are negligible and the income from cash crops and livestock may be insufficient to purchase enough grain. Although sorghum will move westwards from the surplus areas, prices will stay relatively high due to high transport costs. Prices therefore (even of sorghum) may well be out of reach of large numbers of rural people, especially from around March 1997. A contingency plan is suggested which could support people suffering severe food deficits, either by locally purchases grain or by assistance with transport from surplus producing areas. In addition, a total of 52 176 tons of emergency food aid (including 39 000 tons of cereals) will be required for 2.6 million displaced and war-affected people in 1997 under Operation Lifeline Sudan (OLS).