Precipitation decreased during September and October and seasonably stopped in November. In the north, harvest of millet and sorghum is almost finished. In the south, the second maize crop is maturing or being harvested. Seasonal rainfall has been sufficient, despite some dry spells in mid- May, early July and mid/ late September. Following favourable conditions, foodcrop production is expected to be good notably in Borgou and Atacora. The initial FAO estimates of the 1996 cereal outputs indicate about 680 000 tons, which is higher than average.
The food supply situation is satisfactory following the harvesting and marketing of main foodcrops and maize imports from Nigeria. Gari is exported to Niger and yam to Burkina- Faso. Niebe, groundnuts and maize are exported to Togo. There are about 11 000 Togolese refugees in Benin.
Seasonably dry conditions prevail. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission which visited Burkina Faso in late October estimated 1996 aggregate cereal production at 2.46 million tons. This is 7 percent above 1995 and slightly above average for the last five years. This increase in aggregate production is due to an increase in all crops, especially rice, which is expected to increase 48 percent compared to 1995/96. The forecast production of millet is up by 7 percent, sorghum by 4 percent and maize by 5 percent.
The food supply situation which had tightened during the lean season in some traditionally deficit areas affected by a reduced crop in 1995 has eased following the harvest. Cereal prices declined in November/December following the arrival of recently harvested crops or imported cereals from Mali in the north. Deficits in northern provinces can be covered by transfer of cereals from the south, for which external assistance may be required. Cereal needs for ongoing food aid programmes can also be covered by local purchases. Tuareg refugees from Mali are currently receiving food assistance. Their total number has decreased to 25 000 following repatriation.
Crop conditions have been particularly poor as a result of irregular rains. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission which visited Cape Verde from 28 October to 1 November estimated the 1996 maize crop at only 1 000 tons, compared to about 7 000 tons in 1995.
As the country imports the bulk of its consumption requirement, the overall food supply situation will remain satisfactory despite this reduced crop. However, rural populations, notably in the semi-arid zones, will be severely affected and may need assistance. Cereal import requirement in 1996 is estimated at 90 000 tons, mostly as food aid. During 1996, about 47 200 tons have been delivered.
Seasonably dry conditions prevail. In mid-October, an FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission reviewed 1996 crop production with national services and the early warning system (SAP) of Chad. It estimated 1996 cereal production at 840 000 tons, which is slightly below last year and below average. This fall is mainly due to results from the Sahelian zone (-17 percent) since the Sudanian zone has a production level comparable to that of 1995 (515 200 tons in 1996 as against 516 500 tons in 1995). Compared to average output over the period 1991-1995, 1996 production is down by 6.4 percent. The following variations have been registered compared to last year: millet +5 percent, sorghum -17 percent, maize -4.4 percent, berebere -6.6 percent, rice + 9.7 percent.
Following this reduced crop, the food supply situation is going to be tight in 1996/97, notably in the Sahelian zone. In addition, the fact that the national security stock is almost exhausted is particularly worrisome. The recommended level of the national security stock is 22 000 tons, as estimated by an FAO mission in 1995. In early November, the National Early Warning System (SAP) estimated the need for the vulnerable populations in the Sahelian zone at 17 500 tons of cereals to be distributed during 6 months from March. The most affected populations are in Biltine prefecture which experienced drought for a second year and pest attacks. The Government has sent 160 tons of sorghum to be sold at subsidized price in that Prefecture. Food supply difficulties are also anticipated in Batha prefectire following reduced crops and damage by grasshoppers and grain-eating birds. In early December, the government launched an appeal for external assistance amounting to 50 000 tons of cereals. Half of this amount is necessary to cover the needs for distributions or sales at subsidized prices in 1997 and the rest to reconstitute the national security stock before next marketing year
Rains remained widespread in October over the country and seasonably stopped in November, except in the south west. The harvest of millet and sorghum is drawing to an end in the north and is expected to be lower than last year's level, while the maize production is expected to be higher. In the south, the second maize and rice crops are about to be harvested. The first estimates of the National Statistical Services for the 1996 cereal output point to an aggregate production of about 1.8 million tons, which is close to last year�s level.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory and markets are well supplied. On September 30, the government increased the import duty for ordinary rice from 2 to 15 percent, prior to the liberalization of this market in January 1997. About 300 000 Liberian refugees are present in western departments, Their nutritional status is reported to be adequate. WFP, NGOs and donors estimated the caseload of Liberian refugees to be assisted from January 1997 at 175 000 persons. The cereal import requirement for 1996/97 (July/June), is estimated at 505 000 tons mostly wheat and rice.
Seasonably dry conditions prevail. An FAO Crop Assessment Mission which visited The Gambia from 28 October to 1 November estimated 1996 aggregate cereal production at 104 000 tons. This is slightly above the 1995 level and the average of the last five years. Coarse grains decreased by 1% (78 700 tons against 79 500 tons) while paddy rice increased by 6 percent (25 400 tons against 23 800 tons).
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory except in Upper River Division following flooding in August. Rice stocks and planned imports are sufficient to cover consumption requirements in the months ahead. The rice market is well supplied but prices are higher than last year. Following flooding in Upper River Division, a multi- disciplinary team estimated the needs of 150 000 affected persons at 2 235 tons of milled rice and recommended the purchase of early millet, maize and rice seeds to be distributed before the 1997/98 cropping season.
In the north, rains were abundant in early October and decreased significantly during the second and third dekads of October, remaining widespread. Rainfall stopped in early November, allowing harvesting of millet, sorghum and rice in the north, while in the south, rice has already been harvested. Reflecting good climatic conditions during the season and the end of ethnic conflicts in the north, the output of cereals in 1996 is close to last year's level.
There remain about 12 000 Togolese refugees in Ghana following large repatriations 1996. From 1 January, food distribution will be reduced to the elderly, children and young mothers, but UNHCR will provide credits to help refugees developing activities in order to get income. About 135 000 Liberian refugees whose nutritional status is reported to be adequate are also in Ghana. The cereal import requirement for 1996/97 (October/September) is estimated at 335 000 tons mostly wheat and rice.
Rains were abundant during October, decreased in early November and the rainy season ended during the second dekad of November. The harvest of rice is underway while it is almost finished for millet, sorghum and maize. As a result of below normal but very widespread rainfall during the growing season and scarcity of fertilizers, the first estimates for 1996 cereal output points to 900 000 tons, which is about average.
Markets are well supplied following the harvest of the main foodcrops. The cereal import requirement for 1997 (excluding re-exports) is anticipated to be close to the 1996 level of 240 000 tons of wheat and rice. By mid-December, it was estimated that about 650 000 Liberian and Sierra Leaonean refugees were in Guinea. With the ongoing peace process in Liberia and Sierra Leone, refugees are likely to begin returning. The caseload of refugees targeted for food aid distribution from January 1997 amounts at 293 000 Liberians and 173 000 Sierra-Leoneans.
Seasonably dry conditions prevail. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission which visited Guinea-Bissau from 28 October to 1 November estimated 1996 aggregate production of cereals at 174 000 tons. This is 13 percent below the 1995 level and 6 percent below the average of the last five years. However, this decrease may be related to a change in the methodology for crop production estimates.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Markets are generally well supplied and prices remain mostly stable. In May, the CFA Franc will replace the peso following entrance of Guinea-Bissau in the UMOA (Union Mon�taire Ouest Africaine) and the Franc zone. Cereal imports for domestic use and re-exports in 1997 are estimated at about 70 000 tons, mostly rice. Structural food aid requirement is estimated at 6 000 tons.
An FAO Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited Liberia from 28 November to 14 December 1996. Despite hostilities which continued in Liberia throughout 1996, the mission estimated that the rice crop in country was considerably larger in 1996 than it had been in 1995. This was largely due to improved security in the two main rice producing areas, which enabled various NGOs to distribute seeds and tools. 1996 paddy production is estimated to be about 95 000 tons or roughly 30 percent of production pre- war. Cassava is an important supplementary food to which farmers have switched.
The food supply situation has been particularly tight in 1996 in several areas not accessible to relief agencies. The team travelled to areas which had experienced serious famine in 1996, the most notable being Tubmanburg city in Bomi County, some 45 miles from the capital, Monrovia. A military blockade of the city is reckoned to have led to the deaths of some 4 000 people from starvation and disease. The overall security situation is expected to improve in 1997 as the peace process begins to take hold. The main road between Greenville and Zwedru was reopened in late November, allowing demobilization of the militia in the area as well as in Monrovia and ten other cities around the country. National elections are planned for May 1997. Improved security in country will be the first step in the revitalization of the Liberian economy that will include repatriation and resettlement of 768 000 Liberian refugees from abroad, resettlement of an equally large number of internally displaced persons as well as reconstruction of an economy ravaged by seven years of civil war. However, the security situation remains very volatile and uncertain this time, impeding progress toward both resettlement and economic growth.
While food aid received in 1996 was less than the level recommended by a similar Mission in late 1995, commercial rice imports were in line with projections and were substantially higher than the 1995 level (up to 35 000 tons from about 20 000 tons in 1995). Domestic availability of cereals in 1996 was 75 500 tons, while domestic utilization was 200 900 tons, leaving the deficit to be covered by imports and food aid of 135 100 tons. For 1997, taking into account a rise in population to 2 million people due to a partial return of refugees to Liberia and using a per caput consumption level equal to the last five years average, the projected cereal deficit will grow to about 166 000 tons. With cereal imports projected at 50 000 tons, the cereal food aid requirement is estimated at 116 000 tons.
Seasonably dry conditions prevail. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission which visited Mali in mid-October estimated 1996 aggregate cereal production at 2.2 million tons. This is greater than the average of the last five years (+ 3 percent) and more than last season (+6 percent). This increase in production is thought to be due to the high yields obtained from the main products since the total area under cereal cultivation is slightly lower than in 1995 (-1 percent). Millet, rice and wheat production will rise significantly by 12 percent, 27 percent and 67 percent respectively compared to the 1995/96 figures. As regards maize and sorghum, there has been a fall in production both in relation to the 1995/96 figures (11 percent and 3 percent) and to the average for the last five years (13 percent and 3 percent). These falls are due to a drop in yields. In addition to these forecasts, off-season output must be taken into account whose forecasts for 1996/97 are put at about 49 000 tons, comprising rice (33 000 tons), maize (14 000 tons) and sorghum (2 000 tons).
Following this relatively good harvest, the overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Prices of sorghum and maize, which had increased significantly during the first half of 1996, notably in Kayes, Koulikoro, Mopti and S�gou, started to decrease in late September in several regions. Supply of cereals is adequate. The national early warning system estimated that no food distribution is necessary for the moment but that several arrondissements in the north may face economic difficulties in 1997. In early 1996, it recommended distribution of a total of 8 567 tons of food aid for 317 100 people in areas affected by a reduced crop in 1995. These quantities have been released from the National Security Stock and distributed from June to mid-August. Food assistance has also been given since May to the Tuaregs who have started to return from the camps of Annefis and Inabague in the Kidal region of Mauritania.
Seasonably dry conditions prevail. In October, on the basis of the national production survey, a joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission estimated 1996 aggregate cereal production at 208 000 tons which is 6 percent below the 1995 level but remains above average. The largest drop in production is anticipated for low-lying and Walo crops (37 percent and 60 percent respectively). For the Di�ri crops, the decline could be in the order of 5 percent. In contrast, the irrigated crops have increased significantly. In November, a new multi- disciplinary mission visited all wilayas of the country and estimated that planted areas for off-season crops were lower than previously indicated and reviewed significantly downwards the production estimates on the basis of its qualitative observations. The second phase of the national production survey is scheduled to start in early January and will provide the final results of 1996 harvest.
Small populations of Desert Locust adults and a few swarms are present in northern and western Mauritania. Due to low temperatures, they are expected to persist in these areas and slowly mature. The threat of swarms moving south along the coast and entering Senegal in the Senegal River Valley, where a few swarms were seen, is assessed to be very low.
The overall food supply situation is anticipated to be tight for certain populations affected by a poor crop in rainfed production areas, notably in Brakna and Gorgol regions. An assessment of their needs is going to be undertaken shortly. Food assistance is being distributed to Tuareg refugees in one camp in the east of the country. Their number is currently estimated at 28 000. Since June 1996, about 17 000 refugees returned to Mali. The repatriation process is anticipated to be completed by mid-1997.
Seasonably dry conditions prevail. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission which visited the country from 19 to 25 October, estimated 1996 aggregate cereal production on the basis of the agricultural survey at 2 325 000 tons. This is 10 percent more than in 1995 and 4 percent above the average of the last five years. Above all, sorghum production has increased while rice production is similar to 1995 results.
Infestations of Desert Locust in Tamesna were reported to be decreasing by late November and early December as most had fledged into immature adults. Scattered adults were seen at In Zinkad and in the Iguidi area up to 8 December.
Following an above-average harvest, the food supply is anticipated to remain mostly stable in 1996/97. However, several populations are particularly vulnerable following poor crops, notably in Tanout area, in Zinder department, where population movements have been reported in early December. The national early warning system estimated that the arrondissements of N�Guigmi, Ouallam, Tahoua, Tanout, Tchintabaraden and all the arrondissements of Agadez departments are particularly vulnerable. In addition, in early November, the national security stock was almost exhausted but funds from sales of cereals undertaken in 1996 or donors commitments for the stock�s reconstitution were registered. In late October, the marketing board (OPVN) launched a bid for the local purchase of 30 000 tons of millet for the reconstitution of the stock. On 11 December, the government launched an appeal for external assistance amounting to 118 000 tons of cereals. In late December, a joint FAO/WFP/FEWS Mission will visit Zinder department to assess the situation of the vulnerable population and needs for external food assistance and non-food items including tools, seeds and logistic support. The Government has already requested OPVN to undertake distribution of 100 tons of cereals.
Rainfall decreased in late September and in October, except in the south-east, and stopped in early November, marking the end of the rainy season. In the north, the second maize crop has been harvested in November/December.
Shortages of fertilizers, improved seeds and pesticides were reported during the planting season, following an import ban imposed by the government and difficulties in the distribution of locally produced fertilizers. As a result, farmers may have switched from rice crop to millet, sorghum and groundnuts, which are less fertilizer dependent. Nevertheless, following good climatic conditions during the growing season and low pest infestations, the overall cereal output for 1996 is estimated at 23 millions tons, which is higher than last year. About 55 million tons of roots and tubers, which represent the main foodcrops, have also been produced.
The food supply is still limited by high levels of harvest and post harvest losses and high distribution costs. In order to reduce large post-harvest losses, the Government has started a food storage programme, including the construction of 26 silos, with a 636 000 tons storage capacity, and the installation of 500 improved storage structures for farmers.
Cross border exports of maize and rice into Niger and Chad are reported. The cereal import requirement for 1996/97 (November/October) is estimated at 1 020 000 tons, including 700 000 tons of wheat and 250 000 tons of rice.
Seasonably dry conditions prevail. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission which visited Senegal in mid-October estimated 1996 aggregate cereal production at 1 066 900 tons of cereals. This is close to the 1995 level and above average. Production of rice and sorghum increased, while that of maize decreased. Compared with last season's results, cropped areas estimated at a total of 1 300 000 hectares have increased by 7 percent. An estimated 28 000 tons of recession crops should be added to this forecast, which gives a total of about 1 095 000 tons. Rice and fonio production has increased by 10 and 12 percent respectively. Maize production is expected to fall by 8 percent.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Markets are generally well supplied except for maize. Prices of cereals have declined following the harvest but they remained slightly above 1995 level for millet and sorghum in the north. The country imports large quantities of rice to cover its consumption requirement. External assistance may be required for the mobilization of cereals in the south and their transfer to northern deficit areas.
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited Sierra Leone from 27 November to 9 December 1996 to estimate the production of 1995 and 1996, and the national food requirements for 1997. The Mission found that agricultural production like all other productive sectors of the economy, had been badly affected by the war which started in the Southern and Eastern parts of the country in 1991 and spread to the rest of the country by the end of 1994, becoming most devastating in 1995. The war caused large-scale displacement of farmers, thereby cutting off large portions of land from production. Apart from being displaced, many farmers, particularly those in areas which were under frequent attacks, also lost their seeds, tools, on-farm storage facilities and other productive assets to the extent that even those returning from the displacement camps have not been able to resume normal production without help from relief agencies and NGOs. It is estimated that about 180 000 farm families were directly affected by the conflict. As a result, agricultural production has drastically dropped throughout the country in the last five years.
The Mission reckoned that the worst year was 1995, when production of paddy is estimated at 355 500 tons, some 27 percent below the 1993 level. The Mission estimated that food production for 1996 will be an improvement over the previous year, with paddy production forecast at about 391 000 tons, 10 percent above last year. Production of root crops is also projected to increase to an estimated 328 000 tons, 7 percent above that of last year. The Mission estimated that the total area planted to rice in 1996 reached some 289 200 hectares, 5 percent larger than in the previous year.
With this production, and considering no change in the level of stocks, the cereal import requirement for 1997 is estimated at 259 000 tons and the food aid requirement at 79 300 tons. Cereal food aid requirements to support resettlement/rehabilitation activities implemented by WFP and CRS have been estimated at 60 500 tons for 1997. The signing of the peace agreement on 30 November marked a new era which should see even greater improvement in agricultural production if the peace settlement is given the opportunity to take root. The Mission observed significant improvement in the overall farming situation with much enthusiasm displayed by farmers and the IDPs returning for resettlement in their villages.
In the north, rains were abundant until mid-September, decreased significantly in late September and October and stopped in November, marking the end of the rainy season. In the north, the harvest of millet and sorghum is drawing to an end while the harvest of the second maize crop is starting. Following abundant although irregular rainfall, the cereal output for 1996 is estimated at 490 000 tons, which is slightly below average and close to last years level. The roots and tubers production is estimated at about 980 000 tons and pulses at 56 000 tons, which is about 10% higher than last year.
Markets are well supplied with the marketing of the main foodcrops. About 10 000 refugees from Ghana remain in Togo but their number has significantly reduced in 1996 following repatriation which has been encouraged by a shift in humanitarian aid policy from relief to rehabilitation (provision of seeds and money) and a reduction of food aid distributions.