FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report 02/97

KENYA

CURRENT SITUATION

Harvest of the secondary short rains season crops is well advanced. The outlook is poor has seriously due to insufficient rainfall during the growing season. The rains, which normally start in mid-October came late, became sporadic and the situation turned into one of drought in December. In most parts of North Eastern, Eastern and Coast Provinces, and in the low-altitude areas of Central Province, widespread crop failures and deteriorating pasture and rangeland conditions are reported and water scarcity has become a serious problem for both livestock and humans. Significant losses of livestock have also been reported. For these same areas, the failure of the 1996/97 short rains follows two consecutive failures of the long rains (March-May), thus worsening an already tight food supply situation. The Government estimates that some two million people are currently affected by the drought and that the number may reach three million if the situation persists. It has appealed to the international community for emergency food assistance for this section of the population.

For the country as a whole, an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission, which visited Kenya in October/November 1996, estimated that the maize output of the main long rains season was reduced due to a combination of economic and weather factors. As a result of the failure of the second season, the 1996/97 national maize production has been revised downwards to 2.16 million tons, a decrease of 20 percent from last year.

For the 1996/97 marketing year, a revised cereal import requirement of 1.2 million tons is now projected. This is almost double the average for the past five years. It is anticipated that 1 million tons of food grains would be commercially imported, leaving a deficit of 200 000 tons. The Strategic Grain Reserve (SGR) is at a minimum level while the ability of the country to meet this shortfall through additional imports is limited due to foreign exchange constraints. Substantial external assistance is therefore needed. Total cereal food aid pledges as of late January 1997 amounted to 43 000 tons (including local purchases). Donors are urged to make additional pledges and expedite their delivery as a matter of urgency to avoid a serious food problem developing in the country.