FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report 02/97

SOMALIA

CURRENT SITUATION

Harvest of the 1996/97 secondary "Der" cereal crop, normally accounting for some 25 percent of the annual cereal production, is completed. The output was poor reflecting delayed and poorly distributed rains during the season, coupled with a decline in plantings due to the late precipitation and prevailing insecurity in the several areas. Estimates of the area planted indicate a decrease of one-third from the previous "Der" season for the sorghum crop, to 120 000 hectares, not compensated by an increase of 17 percent in the area under maize, mainly in irrigated areas, to 59 000 hectares. The total cereal production for the 1996/97 "Der" season is provisionally estimated at 45 000 tons, a decline of almost 60 percent from the normal 1995/96 level.

With the reduced 1996/97 "Der", food shortages are expected in parts, particularly in the Gedo, Lower Juba and Hiraam regions, where the main "Gu" crop was poor. In Mogadishu markets the price of sorghum by late January had increased by 65 percent from its November level.

The 1996 main "Gu" harvest was estimated by a FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission at 243 000 tons of cereals, an increase of 47 percent from the previous year but still over one-third less than the pre-civil war average. This reflects a significant increase in production in the important growing Bay region and the Northwest which, together, account for half of the country’s production. However, production declined sharply elsewhere due to drought, insect damage and/or flooding.

At the estimated level of the secondary "Der" season production, the cereal import requirement in the 1996/97 marketing year is likely to increase from the 203 000 tons forecast by the FAO/WFP Mission to some 256 000 tons. From this, commercial imports are expected to rise during the year to an annual net import of 170 000 tons of cereals (mostly rice and wheat). The remaining gap of 86 000 tons need to be covered by food aid. Emergency food aid for the worst affected areas are being revised in the light of the production estimates of the "Der" crop and farmers’ coping mechanisms in the areas where the harvest is reduced.