FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report 02/97

SUDAN

CURRENT SITUATION

A recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission forecast that total cereal production would reach 5.33 million tons in 1996/97 comprising 4.10 million tons of sorghum, 0.49 million tons of millet, 0.64 million tons of wheat (to be harvested in April 1997), and a relatively small quantity of maize (0.09 million tons) mainly produced in the south. The 1996/97 harvest is 50 percent higher than last year’s disappointing production. Sorghum is 61 percent higher, millet 23 percent and wheat is expected to be up 17 percent. Total cereal production is slightly higher than even the 1994/95 excellent crop; sorghum and wheat are significantly higher but millet is only half of the production in that exceptional year.

Major increases in the planted area of sorghum, stimulated by high prices at planting time, allied to better than average supplies of fuel and fertilizer and in the greater use of high potential cultivars combined to provide the conditions for the highest sorghum crop in recent years. Rainfall was good early in the season, but a dry spell, starting in June in the Gedaref area and affecting many other productive areas in July, had the effect of reducing yield potential at a critical time in the growth cycle. In some areas, such as parts of Renk, the rains ended prematurely in early October resulting in lower yields.

Millet crops have fared much less well than sorghum since these are mainly grown in the northern half of Darfur and Kordofan, where rainfall was poor and uneven in mid-season. All areas in the West, north of 13° latitude experienced long dry periods in August-September which badly affected millet crops. Although the total area planted to millet was good, more than half the crop is estimated to be unproductive. Millet production is better than last year’s very poor production in nearly all areas, but stocks are very much lower than a year ago (when there was a large carryover from 1994/95) and millet supplies will be inadequate in North Darfur, North Kordofan, the north-west of West Kordofan, the north of South Darfur and in the Geneina province of West Darfur.

The overall food outlook for 1996/97 is therefore favourable, but at the levels of certain provinces and states the food supply situation is likely to be precarious. Some of the deficit amounts will be corrected through normal internal trade but, especially in the cases of North Kordofan and North Darfur, some areas and sectors of the population will have difficulty in meeting their food needs. In these vulnerable areas (particularly north of 13°) the income from cash crops and livestock may be insufficient to purchase enough grain. Although sorghum will move westwards from the surplus areas, prices will stay relatively high due to high transport costs. Prices therefore may well be out of reach of large numbers of rural people. A contingency plan is suggested which could support people suffering severe food deficits, either by locally purchases grain or by assistance with transport from surplus producing areas.

In addition, a total of 52 176 tons of emergency food aid (including 39 000 tons of cereals) will be required for 2.6 million displaced and war-affected people in 1997 under Operation Lifeline Sudan (OLS).