FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report 02/97

BURUNDI

Area: 26 000 sq.km

Climate:	Highland rainy climate with moderate temperature (200C); two rainy seasons (Feb.-
May and Sept.-Nov.)
Population:	6.58 million (1996 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: U.S.$ 180 (1993)
Specific characteristics of the country:	Low-income food-deficit country; land-locked country
Logistics:	Ports: Mombasa (Kenya) and Dar es Salaam (Tanzania); rail and road connections
inadequate
Major foodcrops:	Pulses, plantains, roots, tubers, maize and sorghum
Marketing year:	January/December; Lean season: November-December
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:	34 percent

CURRENT SITUATION

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission that visited the country recently found that the 1997 season A (September 1996-January 1997) took place under unfavourable conditions, marked by an aggravation of the civil strife, persistent insecurity, large movements of the population, an economic embargo and adverse weather in some parts.

Plantings were limited by the movements of the population, as well as by a reduced availability of seeds, mainly beans, potatoes and vegetables. Yields of cereals and pulses were affected by the reduced quality of seeds, an almost total absence of fertilizers due to the embargo, a false start of the rainy season and a prolonged dry spell that affected the main producing areas between September and November 1996.

The total food production for the 1997 first crop season is estimated at some 1.2 million tons, 7 percent down from the output of the same season in 1996 and 18 percent below the average of the pre-crisis level, 1988-93. The most affected crops were pulses and, to a lesser extent, cereals. Production of pulses is estimated 22 percent lower than the 1996A crop and 42 percent below the 1988-93 average for the same season. Cereal production is estimated to be more than 10 percent less than the level of the same season in the previous year and almost 20 percent lower than the pre-crisis level. The outputs of roots, tubers and bananas are estimated some 5 percent down on 1996 and 15 percent below the pre-crisis average.

Prospects for the 1997 second and third crop seasons are somewhat better reflecting some improvement in security conditions and better availability of agricultural inputs. The availability of fertilizers is expected to improve, given the recent lifting of the embargo to import of some 4 000 tons of which 2 200 tons have already arrived in the country and are now ready for distribution. Similarly, seed distributions by international agencies are expected to cover the normal requirements of beans and vegetable seeds. However, plantings of potatoes and, to a lesser extent, cereals, will be limited by a generalised scarcity of seeds.

Given the above and assuming a favourable weather conditions during the 1997 second and third crop seasons, the Mission provisionally forecasts the 1997 aggregate production at 3.47 million tons, slightly down from the 1996 below normal level and 5 percent lower than the 1988-93 pre crisis average. This comprises 271 000 tons of cereals, 316 000 tons of pulses, 1.38 million tons of roots and tubers and 1.5 million tons of bananas and plantains. At the forecast production level, there is a food deficit of some 43 000 tons of cereals and 50 000 tons of pulses to be fulfilled by imports. To cover the deficit in the availability of roots and tubers and bananas additional imports of 53 000 tons of cereals and pulses will be needed.

The food supply situation remains very tight for most products, particularly beans. Food prices have increased, on average, by more than 40 to 50 percent over the levels that prevailed during the first semester of 1996. Bean prices have more than doubled in most areas of the country since July 1996. The food situation is particularly difficult for some 500 000 tons displaced and dispersed population.