FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report 02/97

CHAD

CURRENT SITUATION

Seasonably dry conditions prevail. In mid-October, an FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission reviewed 1996 crop production with national services and the early warning system (SAP) of Chad. It estimated 1996 cereal production at 841 000 tons, which is slightly below last year and below average. This fall is mainly due to results from the Sahelian zone (-17 percent) since the Sudanian zone had a production close to 1995 level (515 200 tons in 1996 against 516 500 tons in 1995). Prospects for off-season crops (mainly berbere - recessional sorghum - in the south-east and in the south-west, along the Logone, Chari and Mayo Kebbi rivers) are also poor. As Lake Chad water level increased somewhat in recent years, some planted areas with maize and wheat in polders have also been lost by farmers.

Following this reduced crop, the food supply situation is going to be tight in 1996/97, notably in the Sahelian zone where cereal prices are much lower than in the south. In addition, the fact that the national security stock is almost exhausted is particularly worrisome. The recommended level of the national security stock is 22 000 tons, as estimated by an FAO mission in 1995. In early November, the National Early Warning System (SAP) estimated the need for the vulnerable populations in the Sahelian zone at 17 500 tons of cereals to be distributed during 6 months from March. The most affected populations are in Biltine prefecture which experienced drought for a second year and pest attacks. The Government has sent 160 tons of sorghum to be sold at subsidized price in that Prefecture. Food supply difficulties are also anticipated in Batha prefecture following reduced crops and damage by grasshoppers and grain-eating birds. In early December, the government launched an appeal for external assistance amounting to 50 000 tons of cereals. Half of this amount is necessary to cover the needs for distributions or sales at subsidized prices in 1997 and the rest to reconstitute the national security stock before next marketing year. For the 1996/97 marketing year (November/October), the cereal import requirement is estimated at 116 000 tons and the food aid requirement at 50 000 tons.