Appendix 29. ITTO scenario: Substitution of fibre and products

Scenario: Substitution of Fibre and Products

Quantities Demanded - Summary

		1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2002	2004	2006	2008	2010
Consuming Countries 1	Plywood/Veneer	13,013	12,832	12,288	11,772	11,608	11,256	11,231	10,893	11,015	10,691	9,589	8,604	7,859	7,307	6,797
	SawnWood	6,298	6,080	5,855	5,431	5,113	5,038	5,067	5,165	5,369	5,480	6,030	6,310	6,736	6,589	6,736
Main Producing Countries 1	Plywood/Veneer	2,088	2,104	2,119	1,957	1,970	1,997	2,024	2,053	2,166	2,196	2,159	2,121	2,098	2,089	2,080
	SawnWood	11,429	11,515	11,888	11,918	11,967	12,302	12,646	13,000	13,528	13,907	14,755	15,656	16,650	17,750	18,926
Exogenous 1	Plywood/Veneer	2,021	2,040	2,059	1,996	1,934	1,855	1,855	1,779	1,779	1,706	1,608	1,429	1,292	1,188	1,093
	SawnWood	4,056	4,017	3,979	3,591	3,240	3,200	3,068	3,030	3,030	2,991	2,770	2,672	2,592	2,527	2,464
Other 4	Plywood/Veneer	2,947	3,005	2,897	2,731	2,677	2,626	2,648	2,670	2,769	2,792	2,688	2,618	2,576	2,562	2,549
	SawnWood	4,712	4,501	4,083	3,859	3,673	3,517	3,473	3,458	3,486	3,478	3,759	4,048	4,348	4,675	4,900
Total	Plywood/Veneer	20,069	19,960	19,363	18,455	18,188	17,734	17,758	17,394	17,728	17,384	16,043	14,772	13,825	13,146	12,518
	SawnWood	26,495	26,114	25,806	24,798	23,993	24,056	24,254	24,652	25,412	25,856	27,314	28,687	30,326	31,541	33,026

¹ Japan, Korea, Taiwan Province of China, Singapore

² Indonesia, Malaysia

³ Countries outside the region including Australia and New Zealand

⁴ Other countries within the Asia region

Source: ITTO. 1995. Analysis of macroeconomic trends in the supply and demand of sustainably produced tropical timber from the Asia-Pacific Region.

Scenario: Substitution of Fibre and Products

Quantities Demanded

		1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	3000	2002	2004	2006	2008	2010
Japan	Plywood/Veneer	8997	8721	8453	8194	7942	7616	7616	7304	7304	7004	6224	5529	4998	4597	4228
Korea	Plywood/Veneer	2264	2328	2181	2044	2104	2080	2058	2035	2096	2073	1842	1636	1479	1360	1251
Thailand	Plywood/Veneer	407	415	423	431	440	443	448	451	442	447	407	401	397	397	397
China	Plywood/Veneer	1747	1798	1686	1582	1535	1477	1490	1503	1578	1593	1538	1485	1458	1456	1453
Taiwan	Plywood/Veneer	1622	1653	1535	1426	1453	1452	1451	1450	1508	1506	1424	1347	1295	1267	1239
Singapore	Plywood/Veneer	130	130	119	109	108	107	106	105	108	107	99	92	87	83	80
Indonesia	Plywood/Veneer	1615	1630	1645	1513	1527	1556	1585	1615	1712	1745	1720	1695	1681	1678	1674
Pen. Malaysia	Plywood/Veneer	334	334	334	304	304	300	297	294	303	299	269	279	271	265	260
Sarawak	Plywood/Veneer	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	51	53	53	53	52	52	52	52
Sabah	Plywood/Veneer	90	90	90	90	90	91	92	93	98	99	97	96	95	95	95
Philippines	Plywood/Veneer	211	207	203	181	161	161	161	161	168	168	165	163	162	162	162
PNG	Plywood/Veneer	19	19	19	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	16	16	15	15	15
Hong Kong	Plywood/Veneer	509	513	518	476	480	485	489	494	519	523	515	508	500	488	477
Exo Demand	Plywood/Veneer	2021	2040	2059	1996	1934	1855	1855	1779	1779	1706	1608	1429	1292	1188	1093
Myanmar	Plywood/Veneer	12	11	10	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	9	9	9	9
Cambodia	Plywood/Veneer	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Laos	Plywood/Veneer	8	8	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Vietnam	Plywood/Veneer	31	32	30	27	26	26	26	26	27	27	27	27	27	27	27
Solomon Islands	Plywood/Veneer	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Total	Plywood/Veneer	20,069	19,980	19,363	18,455	18,188	17,734	17,758	17,394	17,728	17,364	16,043	14,772	13,825	13,146	12,518
Japan	Sawn wood	2564	2429	2406	2172	1960	1945	1865	1851	1860	1846	1799	1754	1718	1692	1667
Korea	Sawn wood	1324	1378	1307	1239	1289	1331	1374	1419	1483	1531	1616	1705	1781	1844	1909
Thailand	Sawnwood	1601	1558	1517	1482	1480	1406	1334	1267	1212	1146	1134	1232	1319	1515	1600
China	Sawnwood	702	672	581	556	532	502	521	540	567	588	627	668	716	771	829
Taiwan	Sawnwood	1908	1792	1682	1580	1483	1402	1455	1509	1584	1644	2036	2239	2536	2392	2476
Singapore	Sawnwood	503	481	460	441	381	360	374	387	442	459	580	613	701	661	684
Indonesia	Sawnwood	7564	7795	8033	8278	8530	8764	9004	9250	9620	9883	10532	11223	12019	12934	13920
Pen. Malaysia	Sawnwood	3079	2919	3037	2879	2730	2805	2881	2960	3078	3162	3305	3455	3593	3719	3850
Sarawak	Sawnwood	304	311	317	295	275	285	296	307	323	335	357	380	404	426	450
Sabah	Sawnwood	481	491	501	465	433	449	466	483	507	526	561	598	635	669	707
Philippines	Sawnwood	678	679	623	568	518	532	547	562	584	600	639	681	722	763	806
PNG	Sawnwood	375	342	312	284	259	263	268	272	280	265	346	386	429	435	442
Hong Kong	Sawnwood	95	89	84	79	74	77	80	62	87	80	97	103	119	123	127
Exo Demand	Sawnwood	4056	4017	3970	3591	3240	3200	3068	3030	3030	2991	2770	2672	2592	2527	2464
Myanmar	Sawnwood	655	591	482	444	401	350	336	335	339	338	459	492	530	528	525
Cambodia	Sawnwood	77	71	59	54	49	45	44	44	45	45	47	50	52	54	57
Laos	Sawnwood	12	10	8	8	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Vietnam	Sawnwood	504	478	409	376	346	327	330	342	359	372	397	423	449	474	501
Solomon Islands	Sawnwood	12	11	9	8	8	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Total	Sawnwood	26,495	26,114	25,806	24,798	23,993	24,056	24,254	24,652	25,412	25,856	27,314	28,687	30,326	31,541	33,026

Source: ITTO. 1995. Analysis of Macroeconomic Trends in the Supply and Demand of Sustainably Produced Tropical Timber from the Asia Pacific Region

Scenario: Substitution of Fibre and Products

Demand Prices

		1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2002	2004	2006	2008	2010
Japan	Plywood/Veneer	464	399	417	455	476	499	488	480	487	480	481	479	478	457	457
Korea	Plywood/Veneer	334	349	398	437	459	480	472	464	451	464	464	463	462	440	440
Thailand	Plywood/Veneer	405	420	435	450	467	484	502	520	545	566	585	582	580	546	546
China	Plywood/Veneer	414	418	446	487	513	539	531	523	528	522	523	521	518	497	497
Taiwan	Plywood/Veneer	332	345	395	434	455	476	468	460	448	460	461	459	458	436	436
Singapore	Plywood/Veneer	311	325	371	409	430	450	442	434	422	434	435	433	432	411	411
Indonesia	Plywood/Veneer	336	327	343	378	395	417	403	396	404	397	397	397	397	376	375
Pen. Malaysia	Plywood/Veneer	320	340	358	390	410	432	418	411	419	412	412	412	404	391	390
Sarawak	Plywood/Veneer	351	342	358	393	410	432	418	411	419	412	412	412	412	391	390
Sabah	Plywood/Veneer	344	342	358	393	410	432	418	411	419	412	412	412	412	391	390
Philippines	Plywood/Veneer	375	396	421	460	506	533	525	516	517	516	464	481	468	478	476
PUG	Plywood/Veneer	336	342	358	393	410	432	418	411	419	412	412	412	412	391	390
Hong Kong	Plywood/Veneer	354	345	361	396	413	435	421	414	422	415	415	415	415	394	393
Exo Demand	Plywood/Veneer	428	416	434	472	492	516	505	497	503	497	498	496	495	474	474
Myanmar	Plywood/Veneer	395	417	492	553	586	619	607	594	574	594	423	421	409	419	419
Cambodia	Plywood/Veneer	479	482	551	613	656	694	696	690	694	689	692	687	681	658	658
Laos	Plywood/Veneer	395	417	493	554	568	621	608	595	576	595	596	594	592	558	556
Vietnam	Plywood/Veneer	395	418	493	554	588	621	608	595	576	595	571	571	571	558	558
Solomon Islands	Plywood/Veneer	491	482	551	613	656	694	696	690	694	689	692	687	681	658	658
Volume Weighted Average		384	383	409	446	467	489	480	472	474	472	472	470	469	447	447
Japan	Sawn wood	286	307	329	366	426	449	440	431	411	425	381	379	366	378	378
Korea	Sawn wood	279	295	354	400	425	450	431	421	400	415	393	391	389	364	364
Thailand	Sawn wood	347	363	361	399	418	438	459	461	510	535	556	554	551	511	511
China	Sawn wood	219	238	287	327	350	372	365	356	343	355	357	355	353	331	331
Taiwan	Sawn wood	281	304	324	361	421	444	435	426	406	420	376	374	361	373	373
Singapore	Sawnwood	266	289	309	346	406	429	420	411	391	405	361	359	346	358	358
Indonesia	Sawn wood	240	231	246	283	300	323	309	302	309	302	302	302	302	280	280
Pen. Malaysia	Sawnwood	250	273	293	330	390	413	420	411	391	405	361	359	346	358	358
Sarawak	Sawnwood	249	272	292	329	389	412	403	394	374	387	344	342	329	341	341
Sabah	Sawnwood	249	272	292	329	389	412	403	394	374	388	344	342	329	341	341
Philippines	Sawnwood	295	316	340	380	444	473	467	458	437	448	404	401	387	398	396
PNG	Sawnwood	251	274	294	331	391	414	405	396	376	390	346	344	331	343	343
Hong Kong	Sawnwood	269	292	312	349	409	432	423	414	394	408	364	362	349	361	361
Exo Demand	Sawnwood	301	324	344	381	441	464	455	446	426	440	396	394	381	393	393
Myanmar	Sawnwood	317	341	418	482	518	552	539	525	505	525	346	344	331	343	343
Cambodia	Sawnwood	346	371	461	532	572	611	596	581	558	581	547	544	542	502	502
Laos	Sawnwood	346	371	461	532	572	611	596	581	558	580	546	544	541	501	501
Vietnam	Sawnwood	346	373	461	532	572	611	596	581	558	581	546	544	641	501	501
Solomon Islands	Sawnwood	346	371	458	529	569	607	592	569	546	524	484	483	446	446	445
Volume Weighted Average		302	313	338	375	413	436	425	415	406	411	382	378	370	360	357

Source: ITTO. 1995. Analysis of Macroeconomic Trends in the Supply and Demand of Sustainably Produced Tropical Timber from the Asia Pacific Region

Scenario: Substitution of Fibre and Products

Quantities Supplied

		1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2002	2004	2006	2008	2010
Thailand	Logs - Hardwood	5420	5339	5259	5180	5102	4837	4585	4347	4121	3907	3371	2910	2741	2497	2478
Indonesia	Logs - Hardwood	35,730	33,699	35,710	35,245	34,787	34,022	32,494	32,493	31,826	31,126	31,247	31,247	33,204	30,252	30,013
Pen, Malaysia	Logs - Hardwood	10,490	9,882	9,447	9,013	8,598	5,502	5,502	5,502	5,502	5,502	5,502	5,502	5,013	5,013	5,013
Sarawak	Logs - Hardwood	19,411	10,848	16,737	14,696	12,903	12,593	12,291	11,995	11,708	11,427	10,133	9,232	8,411	9,154	9,154
Sabah	Logs - Hardwood	10,140	11,041	9,455	7,148	5,404	5,404	5,404	5,404	5,404	5,404	4,695	4,277	3,897	4,244	4,244
Philippines	Logs - Hardwood	1,560	619	675	795	1,007	1,097	1,097	1,097	999	999	829	822	749	816	806
PNG	Logs - Hardwood	2,480	2,480	2,487	2,493	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,293	2,089	2,275	1,888	1,873	1,858	1,844	1,829
Myanmar	Logs - Hardwood	2,319	2,525	3,198	3,766	4,100	4,465	4,465	4,465	4,085	4,448	2,612	2,591	2,361	2,571	2,571
Cambodia	Logs - Hardwood	206	224	284	334	364	391	391	392	357	388	388	388	353	322	322
Laos	Logs - Hardwood	340	231	292	344	375	408	408	408	372	405	405	405	369	336	336
Vietnam	Logs - Hardwood	2,195	2,390	2,987	2,987	2,987	2,987	2,987	2,987	2,987	2,988	2,988	2,988	2,988	2,988	2,968
Solomon Islands	Logs - Hardwood	300	327	400	400	400	400	400	390	389	379	369	369	339	329	319
Total Conventional Supply	Logs - Hardwood	90,590	87,604	86,931	82,400	78,527	74,606	72,524	71,774	69,839	69,248	64,427	62,604	62,283	60,365	60,072
Thailand - IU	Logs - Hardwood	0	0	0	0	90	160	220	280	330	370	420	460	520	620	731
Indonesia - IU	Logs - Hardwood	0	0	0	0	580	1,100	1,590	2,070	2,519	2,950	4,010	5,121	6,241	7,347	8,466
Pen, Malaysia - IU	Logs - Hardwood	0	0	0	0	140	180	260	350	440	520	690	860	1,070	1,319	1,599
Sarawak - IU	Logs - Hardwood	0	0	0	0	220	410	590	760	920	1,081	1,330	1,530	1,771	2,062	2,362
Sabah - IU	Logs - Hardwood	0	0	0	0	90	170	260	340	430	510	660	801	941	1,100	1,250
Philippines - IU	Logs - Hardwood	0	0	0	0	30	50	80	110	140	180	240	321	391	461	541
PNG - IU	Logs - Hardwood	0	0	0	0	40	80	120	160	200	240	310	390	470	550	630
Myanmar -IU	Logs - Hardwood	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cambodia - IU	Logs - Hardwood	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Laos - IU	Logs - Hardwood	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Vietnam - IU	Logs - Hardwood	0	0	0	0	50	100	140	190	240	280	64	63	64	0	0
Solomon Islands - IU	Logs - Hardwood	0	0	0	0	10	10	20	30	30	40	50	50	80	90	100
Total Improved Utilization	Logs - Hardwood	0	0	0	0	1,250	2,260	3,280	4,290	5,250	6,171	7,775	9,595	11,546	13,549	15,680
Indonesia - Helilog	Logs - Hardwood	0	0	0	0	0	800	1,300	0	2,100	903	3,500	1,248	3,010	0	0
PNG - Helilog	Logs - Hardwood	0	0	0	0	400	800	1,300	1,700	2,100	2,499	3,500	4,500	0	4,077	2,378
Total Helilogging	Logs - Hardwood	0	0	0	0	400	1,600	2,600	1,700	4,200	3,402	6,999	5,748	3,010	4,077	2,378
Australia	Logs - Softwood	0	37	75	112	150	200	249	299	349	399	539	678	798	898	997
New Zealand	Logs - Softwood	0	75	150	225	300	399	499	599	699	799	1,079	1,358	1,598	1,798	1,997
Chile	Logs - Softwood	0	150	300	450	600	799	999	1,199	1,399	1,599	2,159	2,718	3,198	3,598	3,997
Russia	Logs - Softwood	0	187	375	562	750	999	1,249	1,499	1,749	1,999	2,699	3,398	3,998	4,498	4,997
Total Conifer Supply	Logs - Softwood	0	450	899	1,349	1,798	2,398	2,997	3,597	4,196	4,796	6,474	8,153	9,591	10,790	11,989

Source: ITTO. 1995. Analysis of Macroeconomic Trends in the Supply and Demand of Sustainably Produced Tropical Timber from the Asia Pacific Region

Scenario: Substitution of Fibre and Products

Supply Prices

		1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2002	2004	2006	2008	2010
Thailand	Logs -Hardwood	103	109	114	121	128	135	142	150	161	169	177	176	175	161	161
Indonesia	Logs - Hardwood	98	93	100	119	127	138	132	128	132	128	128	128	128	117	117
Pen. Malaysia	Logs - Hardwood	98	109	118	137	166	178	181	177	167	174	152	151	145	150	150
Sarawak	Logs - Hardwood	97	108	117	136	165	177	173	168	158	165	143	142	136	141	141
Sabah	Logs - Hardwood	96	107	116	135	164	176	172	167	157	164	142	141	135	140	140
Total Malaysia		97	107	117	136	166	177	174	170	160	167	145	144	138	144	144
Philippines	Logs - Hardwood	94	103	112	128	153	165	163	159	150	155	137	136	131	135	134
PNG	Logs - Hardwood	77	85	94	108	132	142	138	134	126	132	114	114	109	113	113
Myanmar	Logs - Hardwood	103	112	143	169	183	197	192	186	178	186	114	113	109	113	113
Cambodia	Logs - Hardwood	103	112	143	169	183	197	192	186	178	186	187	186	185	170	170
Laos	Logs - Hardwood	103	112	143	169	183	197	192	186	178	186	187	186	185	170	170
Vietnam	Logs - Hardwood	103	112	143	169	183	197	192	186	178	186	176	176	176	170	170
Solomon Islands	Logs - Hardwood	103	112	143	169	183	197	192	183	175	167	153	152	139	139	139
Thailand- IU	Logs - Hardwood	103	109	114	121	128	135	142	150	161	169	177	176	175	161	161
Indonesia - IU	Logs - Hardwood	98	93	106	119	127	138	132	128	132	128	128	128	128	117	117
Pen Malaysia - IU	Logs - Hardwood	98	109	118	137	166	178	181	177	167	174	152	151	145	150	150
Sarawak - IU	Logs - Hardwood	97	108	117	136	165	177	173	169	158	165	143	142	136	141	141
Sabah - IU	Logs - Hardwood	96	107	116	135	164	176	172	167	157	164	142	141	135	140	140
Philippines - IU	Logs - Hardwood	94	103	112	128	153	165	163	159	150	155	137	136	131	135	134
PNG - IU	Logs - Hardwood	77	94	94	108	132	142	138	134	126	132	114	114	109	113	113
Myanmar - IU	Logs - Hardwood	103	112	143	169	183	197	192	186	178	186	114	113	109	113	113
Cambodia - IU	Logs - Hardwood	103	112	143	169	183	197	192	186	225	186	225	186	185	170	170
Laos -IU	Logs - Hardwood	103	112	143	169	183	197	192	186	225	186	187	186	185	170	170
Vietnam - IU	Logs - Hardwood	103	112	176	176	183	197	192	186	178	186	176	176	176	176	170
Solomon Islands - IU	Logs - Hardwood	103	138	143	169	183	197	192	183	175	167	153	152	139	139	139
Indonesia- Helilog	Logs - Hardwood	98	93	128	128	128	138	132	128	132	128	128	128	128	117	128
PNG - Helilog	Logs - Hardwood	77	85	113	113	132	142	138	134	126	132	114	114	113	113	113
Australia	Logs - Softwood	74	73	104	130	144	158	147	142	130	138	126	125	124	110	110
New Zealand	Logs - Softwood	74	73	104	130	144	158	147	142	130	138	126	125	124	110	110
Chile	Logs - Softwood	74	73	104	130	144	158	147	142	130	138	126	125	124	110	110
Russia	Logs - Softwood	89	68	119	145	159	173	162	157	145	153	141	140	139	125	125

Source: ITTO. 1995 Analysis of Macroeconomic Trends in the Supply and Demand of Sustainably Produced Tropical Timber from the Asia Pacific Region

Scenario: Substitution of Fibre Only

Quantities Manufactured - Summary

		1991	1192	1993	1994	1995	1996	1897	1998	1999	2000	2002	2004	2006	2001	2010
Consumer1 Countries	Plywood/Veneer Total	11,734	9,885	9,168	9,026	8,694	9,056	9,549	10,109	10,957	11,283	9,884	10,571	11,314	11,900	12,041
	Plywood/Veneer Softwood	0	0	0	0	0	214	587	1,021	1,672	1,969	3,557	4,480	5,270	5,796	5,874
	Sawnwood Total	3,629	6,199	3,600	3,406	3,320	3,705	3,622	3,522	3,303	3,306	1,437	1,360	1,326	1,533	2,315
	Sawnwood Softwood	0	268	548	822	1,097	1,225	1,176	1,060	703	740	0	0	0	147	792
Producer2 Countries	Plywood/Veneer Total	8,335	10,744	10,674	10,410	10,310	10,000	9,742	9,418	8,816	8,702	9,640	9,392	9,120	8,969	8,943
	Plywood/Veneer Softwood	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	Sawnwood Total	22,866	19,553	22,151	20,795	20,382	19,631	20,420	21,175	22,101	22,598	25,677	27,741	30,067	32,023	33,855
	Sawnwood Softwood	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
All Countries	Plywood/Veneer Total	20,069	20,629	19,841	19,436	19,204	19,056	19,291	19,527	19,673	19,985	19,523	19,963	20,434	20,869	20,984
	Plywood/Veneer Softwood	0	0	0	0	0	214	587	1,021	1,672	1,969	3,557	4,480	5,270	5,796	5,874
	Sawnwood Total	26,495	25,752	25,751	24,202	23,702	23,336	24,041	24,697	25,404	25,904	27,114	29,101	31,393	33,556	36,170
	Sawnwood Softwood	0	268	548	822	1,097	1,225	1,178	1,060	703	740	0	0	0	147	792

¹ Japan, Korea, Thailand, China, Taiwan Province of China, Singapore, Hong Kong

² Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Papua New Guinea, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Soloman Islands

Source: ITTO. 1995. Analysis of Macroeconomic Trends in the Supply and Demand of Sustainably Produced Tropical Timber from the Asia Pacific Region