Following heavy floods during the earlier stages of the 1996 ‘wet’ rice season, an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment mission visited the country in January this year to evaluate the final outcome of the harvest and review the overall food supply situation.
The Mission estimated production of main, wet season paddy at 2.733 million tons for 1996/97 and forecast output of the second, dry season irrigated crop, to be harvested in March, at 0.657 million tons, giving a total of 3.390 million tons. At this level aggregate output would be 2 percent above 1995/96 production and 35 per cent higher than the average for the previous five years.
Favourable rainfall over most of the country benefited planting and development of the 1996 wet season rice crop. However, floods during September/October in several provinces including the major rice growing provinces of Battambang, Kandal, Prey Veng, Siem Reap, Kompong Cham, Pursat and Takeo, caused widespread damage to standing crops. In certain areas, rats and other pests added to the damage. As a result, the favourable outlook initially was somewhat constrained by crop destruction in certain places and reduced yield: 1.67 tons/ha, compared to 1.75 tons/ha in 1995/96. In spite of the damage and reduction in yield, total output was higher than 1995, as a result of an increase in harvested area.
The total availability of rice for 1997 is estimated at 2.120 million tons, based on a milling rate of 62 per cent and an estimated stock carry-over of 18 000 tons. The national requirement of rice for human consumption, allowing for seed and feed and post harvest losses, is estimated at 1.993 million tons. For 1997, therefore, the country has a surplus of 127 000 tons.
In spite of the national surplus, large segments of population in many communes face various degrees of food shortage in 1997. The Government is, therefore, urged to be cautious in actively encouraging rice exports in 1997.
A large number of households in an estimated 265 communes face severe food shortages. The exact number of vulnerable people, however, is yet to be ascertained. An assessment is currently being made by WFP. The number may be fairly large and the total quantity of rice required may be substantial. However, in the interim, assuming no widespread displacement of people, some 43 000 tons of rice and 1 600 tons of other commodities would be needed in 1997 to support the most vulnerable people in various communes. This is sufficient to support 1.1 million people, excluding institutional feeding and training activities, for about three months. However, the situation will need to be reviewed after the on-going assessment has been completed. In addition it is recommended that another 25 000 tons of rice be purchased locally by the Government with donor support for emergency stock for future eventualities. The purchase of such stock would also support farm gate rice prices and encourage farmers to increase production. The total food aid requirement including emergency rations for vulnerable groups and emergency stock to be kept by Government, therefore, amounts to 68 000 tons. As of 1 January 1997 WFP held stocks of 21 070 tons of rice, leaving a shortfall of some 21 930 tons needed to make up the 43 000 tons required for emergency and food for work purposes for vulnerable groups.