Planting of the 1997 secondary "Belg" crop is underway. The Belg crop accounts for only around 7 percent of total cereal production but in several areas provide most of the annual food supplies. Belg rains are also important for planting of the long-season crops (maize and sorghum) of the main "Meher" season. An early start of the belg rains in late January followed by adequate precipitation in growing areas during February favoured planting operations and development of early planted crops. Early prospects for harvest from June are favourable.
In pastorals areas of the south bordering Somalia and Kenya, which have a short rains season from October to December, (Borena Zone of Oromiya Region and Somali Region) erratic and well below average rains during the season in several parts resulted in a rapid deterioration of pasture conditions, shortage of water supplies and poor livestock conditions. The food supply situation in these areas is reported to be very difficult. Food aid assistance, which is currently being distributed to the affected population, is estimated at 10 000 tons of grain, but water supply remains a critical problem. It is recommended that these pledges be covered by local purchases. The worst affected areas are Degehabur and Libean Zones of Somali region and Dire and Yabello waredas in the Borena zone. The price of grains and water have increased sharply in the affected areas while prices of livestock have fallen significantly. Large migrating movements are reported. The situation is expected to improve towards the end of this month when rains of the main season normally start.
The main 1996 "Meher" cereal crops, harvested until January, was a record. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission in November/December estimated the output of cereals and pulses at 11.7 million tons, an increase of 20 percent over the previous year. The bumper crop reflected plentiful and well distributed rains throughout the season, which resulted in higher planting and yields, minimal levels of pest infestations and an increased availability and use of fertilizers. Exportable surplus of some 400 000-600 000 tons are estimated in 1997.
However, despite a satisfactory food supply situation overall, some 1.9 million people still require food assistance due to structural food insecurity and poverty, as well as localized weather adversities during the main meher season. The food aid requirements are expected to be covered through local purchases.
The price of grains, which had steadily declined since November continued to fall in January. Increased exports of maize, mainly to Kenya, are expected to result in an increase in prices in the coming months.