Mostly favourable conditions for the Rabi rice crop in southeast India. However, in major winter wheat areas in the north, soil moistures reserves have been generally drying in recent months as a result of low intermittent rainfall. Irrigation is adequate but the reproductive crop normally needs additional rain during this time of year for favourable development. Additional rainfall is therefore needed through mid-March, if average yield of recent years are to be reached. An additional problem in wheat is weeds, particularly Phalaris Minor, which may also constrain yields. No significant problems for the sorghum harvest are anticipated.
1997 wheat production is estimated to rise to 64.6 million tons some 3 percent above the 62.62 million tons harvested in the previous year and almost 10 percent higher than average for the preceding five years. 1997 wheat planting got off to a good start due to favourable soil moisture conditions aided by late monsoon rains. High wheat prices and a 9.5 percent increase in the government's support price for wheat to rs. 4 150 ($118) pushed area slightly higher. As a result wheat area gained marginally at the expense of crops like sugar cane. Damage to the rice crop due to floods and cyclones in late 1996 in southern India and drought in Orissa was offset by higher production in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Punjab. Rice production in Uttar Pradesh is estimated by the state government at a record 11.8 million tons. FAO�s forecast for milled rice production in 1996/97 is projected at around 81 million tons, slightly up on 1995/96. With planting still four months away, planting for the 1997/98 rice crop will depend largely on summer monsoon rains which begin in June. Eighty to ninety percent of the country�s rice crop is planted at some point during the monsoon season. Overall foodgrain production is estimated to rise to 191.18 million tons in 1996/97 from 185.04 million tons in the previous year.
Rice exports in 1996/97 are expected to fall to 2.5 million tons compared to some 4 million tons in the previous year. To meet growing demand, check rising prices and augment domestic stocks, the Government authorised the State Trading Corporation to import 2 million tons of wheat in 1996/97. So far the country has contracted some 1.68 million tons, most of which is expected to arrive before the end of March, when harvesting of the current wheat crop would be underway.