The security situation is improving and the disarmament process has been successful, allowing demobilization of the militia in Monrovia as well as in twelve other towns around the country. National elections are planned for May 1997. The food supply and nutritional situation is improving, notably in Tubmanburg, Gaya Hill and Gbah where cereals are now available in local markets. Increasing number of refugees returning from Guinea are reported as well as Internally Displaced Persons returning to their villages.
FAO has been assisting the Forestry Development Authority to launch a forestry rehabilitation plan, in which 1 000 jobs will be created, including 500 for ex-combatants and 200 for women. Similarly, FAO is collaborating with the Rubber Planters Association, in order to assist small-holder rubber plantations. Twenty private plantations have been identified, with another twenty in the pipeline. The distribution of seeds, agricultural tools and fertilizer to about 3 000 vulnerable farmers for the forthcoming growing season are underway. FAO has also commenced the distribution of fishing equipment to a targeted population of 1 725 beneficiaries in Montserrado and Margibi Counties. A workshop on the effective utilization of this equipment and marketing techniques is being planned in collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture.
An FAO Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited Liberia late last year. Despite hostilities throughout 1996, the mission estimated that the rice crop was considerably larger in 1996 than 1995. This was largely due to improved security in the two main rice producing areas, which enabled various NGOs to distribute seeds and tools. 1996 paddy production is estimated to be about 95 000 tons or roughly 30 percent of production pre-war. Cassava is an important supplementary food to which farmers have switched. The food supply situation has been particularly tight in 1996 in several areas not accessible to relief agencies. The team travelled to areas which had experienced serious famine in 1996, the most notable being Tubmanburg city in Bomi County, some 45 miles from the capital Monrovia. A military blockade of the city is reckoned to have led to the deaths of some 4 000 people from starvation and disease.
While food aid received in 1996 was less than the level recommended by a similar Mission in late 1995, commercial rice imports were in line with projections and were substantially higher than 1995 (up to 35 000 tons from about 20 000 tons in 1995). Domestic availability of cereals in 1996 was 75 500 tons, while domestic utilization was 200 900 tons, leaving the deficit to be covered by imports and food aid of 135 100 tons. For 1997, taking into account a rise in population to 2 million people due to a partial return of refugees to Liberia and using a per caput consumption level equal to the last five years average, the projected cereal deficit will grow to about 166 000 tons. With commercial cereal imports projected at 50 000 tons, the cereal food aid requirement is estimated at 116 000 tons.