Seasonably dry conditions prevail. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission last year, estimated 1996 aggregate cereal production at 2 325 000 tons. This is 10 percent more than in 1995 and 4 percent above the average of the last five years. Sorghum production increased while rice production remained similar to 1995. Isolated Desert Locust adults may be present and will persist in a few areas of central Tamesna and perhaps in Aïr.
Despite this above-average harvest, food supply is anticipated to be tight in several areas which gathered poor crops, some for the second successive year. The national early warning system estimates that the arrondissements of N’Guigmi, Ouallam, Tahoua, Tanout, Tchintabaraden and all the arrondissements of Agadez departments are particularly vulnerable. The situation is particularly worrisome in Tanout area, in Zinder department, where substantial population movements have been reported in December and January. In addition, in early November, the national security stock was almost exhausted. Although funds from sales of cereals undertaken in 1996 or donors commitments for the stock’s reconstitution are registered, the OPVN, the marketing board, could not buy cereals in late 1996 following a bid launched in late October as cereal prices increased and traders could not maintain their offers. Its level is now at about 4 500 tons. Cereal prices are higher than last year, notably due to low imports from northern Nigeria where prices are also high. On 11 December, the government launched an appeal for external assistance amounting to 118 000 tons of cereals. In late December, a joint FAO/WFP Team with FEWS participation visited the arrondissement of Tanout in Zinder department to assess the situation of the vulnerable population and needs for external food assistance and non-food items including tools, seeds and logistic support. In late January, another FAO mission was organized to Ouallam arrondissement. Farmers stocks will be exhausted around mid-March and population movements are reported. Those remaining have begun eating wild foods. In late February, a new assessment mission visited the vulnerable areas of Maradi, Tanout and Zinder departments and confirmed the tight food supply and nutritional situation. Migrations of entire families have increased. Remaining families are consuming wild food and selling small livestock or borrowing against future harvest. The situation varies greatly in the villages but assistance is most urgently needed in the arrondissement of Tanout and neighbouring areas of Dakoro arrondissement. Some assistance will also be needed in urban areas where migrants from these areas have concentrated, notably in Zinder. The government has started food distributions in several arrondissements.