Overall prospects for the 1997 wheat crop, to be harvested from April, are uncertain. The area planted is provisionally estimated to be similar to last year. Water levels in rivers were normal and the pest situation is considered calm. However, temperatures in January, when the crop was at critical flowering stage, were above average and may have negatively affected yield potential. Production forecasts have been lowered to 500 000 tons, 5 percent below the previous year. An FAO Crop Assessment Mission is scheduled to visit the country in early April to make an on-the-spot appraisal of the crop.
1996/97 cereal production was forecast by an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission last December, at 5.33 million tons, 50 percent higher than the reduced level of the previous year and somewhat above the bumper crop of 1994/95. Production of sorghum was estimated at 4.1 million tons, an increase of 61 percent from 1995/96 reflecting major increases in plantings, in response to higher prices, coupled with improved availability of agriculture inputs and favourable weather during the season. Millet output rose by one-quarter from the poor level of the previous year to 491 000 tons mainly as a result of larger plantings. However, production of millet was sharply reduced in the northern half of Darfur and Kordofan states, where rainfall was poor and uneven in mid-season and more than half of the crop was estimated to be unproductive.
Despite the overall satisfactory food supply position and the country�s exportable surplus of sorghum, food security is precarious in several areas of Darfur and Kordofan states, where the 1996 cereal harvest was reduced for the second consecutive year. In these vulnerable areas, the income from cash crops and livestock may be insufficient to purchase enough grain. The situation needs to be carefully monitored in the coming months and contingency plans for provision of food assistance, either by local purchases of grain or by assistance with transport from surplus producing areas, should be made. In addition, food aid is required in southern states affected by a prolonged civil war. Emergency food aid for some 2.6 million displaced and war-affected persons in these areas is estimated at 52 176 tons (including 39 000 tons of cereals).