Shortages have encouraged farmers to divert land from cotton to winter cereals the area of which is even larger than last year. Current expectations are for a further increase in wheat production in 1997, given favourable weather conditions. Nevertheless, in the absence of significant progress in land privatization and additional investment in or availability of inputs, the country is likely to remain dependent on imports and food aid to meet its minimum consumption requirement. Despite the favourable harvest of 400 000 tons in 1996, cereal import requirement in 1996/97 is estimated at about 370 000 tons. Food aid allocations and official imports have amounted to less than one third of this amount. Although imports of flour by the private sector have increased, indications are that actual imports will remain well short of estimated needs .To help cover the deficit the government has requested 180 000 tons of food aid in wheat to meet the needs until the new harvest - as well as assistance in the form of machinery, agro-chemicals and seed to increase domestic food production.
Shortages of basic foodstuffs, notably wheat and potatoes, coupled with widespread unemployment and poverty following five years of intermittent hostilities and economic decline, have contributed to the marked deterioration in the nutritional situation. This has been documented by a nutrition survey undertaken by German Agro-Action during the 1996 harvest period. The findings of this survey indicate that some ten percent of children under-5 years show signs of acute under-nutrition and over 40 percent of children show signs of stunted growth. In addition, 10 percent of women of reproductive age and 7 percent of men are not getting enough to eat. The acute undernutrition indicates the severity of food shortages in the country, especially as the survey was undertaken at the end of summer, during harvest and therefore the most favourable time for food availability. Even so, one respondent household in three reported one day with insufficient or no food during the week prior to the survey interview in September 1996 and some families were found to be substituting wheat flour with chick pea flour or poultry feed, obtained from the state farm. Moreover, the fact that this high level of acute undernutrition was found to occur irrespective of the location, agricultural potential or relative economic strength of the region, highlights the pervasiveness of the food shortage. Thus the signs of acute malnutrition were equally evident in children in northern parts of the country (Leninabad) which was not affected by civil strife and worst of the economic decline as in the areas directly affected by civil strife and intermittent conflicts. By contrast, stunting - an indicator for longer term food deficiency - was found to be more prevalent in mountainous than plain regions, due also to the harsher environment and greater health risks.
At the household level, almost 20 percent of households were found to have had no income, while nearly two thirds reported only irregular income in the two months prior to the survey. Virtually all (94 percent) had tried to cope by planting foodcrops wherever possible and keeping at least one animal .However, families tend to be large (7-8 members) and the land available for private exploitation is limited (less than 0.01 hectare per family for over 60 percent of the respondents). As a result, beans, lentils, vegetables, fruit, nuts, fruit tea, as well as eggs, milk and milk products tend to be mainly produced at home, but meat and major staples - wheat flour and potatoes- have to be purchased mostly at market where shortages have become progressively more pronounced and led to food riots in late 1996.
Some 620 000 particularly vulnerable people continue to need targeted humanitarian assistance. These include populations displaced as a result of civil strife, elderly pensioners, war-widows with children, large single-parent families, orphans and the disabled/invalids. Some relief and assistance programmes have had to be interrupted or scaled back because of the precarious security situation. However, international agencies plan to resume activities shortly. For 1997, WFP estimates the relief food requirement for its operations at over 33 500 tons, valued at US$ 20 million. The contributions for 1997, including carry-over stocks, currently stand at around 23 000 tons. While this allows WFP's needs to be covered beyond mid-1997, it leaves a remaining balance of 10 500 tons, valued at 60 million.