The early outlook for the 1997 grain harvest is mixed. Growing conditions for winter crops have been generally favourable and about 90 percent of the crop is in good to satisfactory condition. Despite the mild winter, average to above average snow cover (in the North Caucasus, Siberia and the southern Urals) has provided good soil moisture reserves for spring growth and helped to protect crops from winterkill. Crop damage by winterkill is about average, and has occurred mainly in some southern parts of the Urals and Volga-Vyatsk regions and in parts of the north Povolski region during an extremely cold spell in December/January. However, the area sown to winter grains , for harvest in the summer has fallen by 1.2 million hectares to 13 million hectares pointing to a harvested area of around 12 million hectares, compared to 13.9 million hectares in 1996. Moreover fertilizer application has remained low. The area target for spring crops is 66 million hectares including nearly 40 million hectares of spring grains, marginally lower than last year, However, shortages of operational machinery, quality seed and farm liquidity could adversely affect plantings and crop yields. Current indications are that aggregate grain area could continue to decline. However, weather conditions until the completion of the harvest will remain the major determinant of final outcome. The grain production target has been set at a cautious 70 million tons, similar to the official estimate of output in 1996.
Demand for cereals has fallen sharply in recent years, due to a sharp reduction in animal numbers, increased use of grass fodder and substitution of feedgrain imports by imports of meat. In 1996/97, cereal imports could decline to just below 4 million tons, including 2.7 million tons of wheat. The bulk of these imports are likely to be sourced from Kazakhstan and Ukraine, leaving an estimated 0.6 million tons of wheat to be imported from outside the CIS. Imports of coarse grains are forecast to decline by 400 000 tons, to 900 000 tons, including barley, rye and maize. The latter mostly from outside the CIS. Imports of rice, including CIS intra-trade, which reached 178 000 tons in the first six months, could remain close to last year DRs level of 260 000 tons in 1995/96. Exports of cereals in 1996/97 are tentatively forecast at around 1 million tons, mainly wheat and flour.
WFP continues to provide supplementary food assistance to some 90 000 displaced persons in areas surrounding Chechnya. Security permitting, WFP will re-assess food aid needs in the affected area (including Chechnya) to review its impending phase-out date of 31 March. If necessary, carry-over pledges would be sufficient to continue the operation for a few months.