AFRIQUE

WESTERN AFRICA

BENIN (20 March)

Seasonably dry conditions prevail in the north. In the south, following the start of the rainy season in early March, land preparation is underway for the planting of the first maize crop. Following favourable conditions in 1996, a good cereal harvest has been gathered, notably in Borgou and Atacora. The FAO estimate puts 1996 cereal output at about 659 000 tons, which is higher than average.

The food supply situation is satisfactory following harvesting and marketing of the main foodcrops and maize imports from Nigeria. Gari is exported to Niger and yam to Burkina-Faso. Niebe, groundnuts and maize are exported to Togo. There are about 11 000 Togolese refugees remaining in Benin.

BURKINA FASO (20 March)

Seasonably dry conditions prevail. The final estimates of 1996 cereal production were officially released on 5 March. They indicate an aggregate production of cereals of 2 482 000 tons, which is slightly above the 2 461 000 tons estimated by a joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission last year. This is 7.5 percent above 1995 (2 308 000 tons) and 1 percent above average for the last five years. This increase in aggregate production is due to an increase in all crops except fonio (- 8 percent). Maize, rice and millet production increased respectively by 39, 33 and 10 percent compared to 1995/96. 18 provinces registered an increase in production, notably in Boulgou (+ 83 percent), Yatenga (+ 68 percent), Passor� (+ 51 percent), Sourou (+ 48 percent) and Soum (+ 31 percent). By contrast, production decreased in Kouritenga (- 60 percent), Oudalan, Poni, Samnatenga and S�no (around - 30 percent).

The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Cereal prices declined in October/November following the arrival of recently harvested crops or imported cereals from Mali in the north. They continued to decline in December/January but remained higher than average in several provinces due to substantial exports to the capital or to neighbouring countries. As a result, some departments may face some food supply difficulties. The government will provide 2 700 tons of cereals for the "banques de c�r�ales" in the areas at risk. Deficits in northern provinces can be covered by transfer of cereals from the south, for which external assistance may be required. Cereal needs for ongoing food aid programmes can also be covered by local purchases. Tuareg refugees from Mali are currently receiving food assistance. Their total number has decreased to 25 000 following repatriation.

CAPE VERDE (10 March)

Crop conditions were particularly unfavourable in 1996 as a result of irregular rains. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission which visited Cape Verde last year estimated the 1996 maize crop at only 1 000 tons, compared to about 8 000 tons in 1995. The poor rains did not allow adequate replenishment of ground water and this may also affect irrigated crop production during the dry season. In addition, fodder is scarce and the nutritional status of the herd is deteriorating.

As the country imports the bulk of its consumption requirement, the overall food supply situation will remain satisfactory despite this very reduced crop. However, rural populations, notably in the semi-arid zones, will be severely affected and may need assistance. The government has launched an appeal for external assistance including projects for drinking water supply, livestock support and assistance for vulnerable groups. The cereal import requirement in 1997 is estimated at 90 000 tons and the food aid requirement at 65 000 tons.

CHAD (20 March)

Seasonably dry conditions prevail. Last year, an FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission estimated 1996 cereal production at 840 000 tons, which is slightly below 1995 and below average. Production decreased notably in the Sahelian zone. Prospects for off-season crops (mainly berbere - recessional sorghum - in the south-east and in the south-west, along the Logone, Chari and Mayo Kebbi rivers) are also poor due to lower planted areas and limited yields. As the water level has increased in Lake Chad in recent years, some planted areas with maize and wheat in polders have also been lost by farmers.

Following this reduced crop, the food supply situation is going to be tight in 1997, notably in the Sahelian zone where cereal prices are much higher than in previous years. In addition, the national security stock is almost exhausted, which is particularly worrisome. Its recommended level is 22 000 tons, as estimated by an FAO mission in 1995. In early November, the National Early Warning System (SAP) estimated the need for the vulnerable populations in the Sahelian zone at 17 500 tons of cereals to be distributed during 6 months from March. It has recently revised this figure to 19 500 tons. The most affected populations are in Biltine prefecture which experienced drought for a second year and pest attacks. The Government has sent sorghum to be sold at subsidized price in that Prefecture. Food supply difficulties are also anticipated in Batha prefecture following reduced crops and damage by grasshoppers and grain-eating birds. In early December, the government launched an appeal for external assistance amounting to 50 000 tons of cereals. Half of this amount is necessary to cover the needs for distributions or sales at subsidized prices in 1997 and the rest to reconstitute the national security stock before next marketing year. A donors meeting held by the FAO representative met in February to review the current food supply situation. Several donors confirmed or announced food aid contributions, either with imported cereals or from local purchases, notably in Salamat region. However, current pledges amount to about 22 000 tons and therefore do not cover the deficit. Additional contributions are required.

COTE D'IVOIRE (10 March)

Seasonably dry conditions prevail in the north. Rains started in the south in early March, allowing land preparation for the first maize crop. The first estimates of the National Statistical Services for the 1996 cereal output point to an aggregate production of about 1.8 million tons.

The overall food supply situation is satisfactory and markets are well supplied. In September 1996, the government increased the import duty for ordinary rice from 2 to 15 percent, prior to the liberalization of this market in January 1997. About 300 000 Liberian refugees are present in western departments. Their nutritional status is reported to be adequate. WFP, NGOs and donors estimate the caseload of Liberian refugees to be assisted from January 1997 at 175 000 people. The cereal import requirement for 1996/97 (July/June), is estimated at 500 000 tons mostly wheat and rice.

THE GAMBIA (10 March)

Seasonably dry conditions prevail. An FAO Crop Assessment Mission late last year estimated 1996 aggregate cereal production at 104 000 tons. This is slightly above 1995 and the average for the last five years. Coarse grains increased slightly whilst rice increased significantly.

The overall food supply situation is satisfactory except in Upper River Division following floods in August which affected crops. Rice stocks and planned imports are sufficient to cover consumption requirements in the months ahead. The rice market is well supplied but prices are higher than last year. Following floods in Upper River Division, a multi-disciplinary team estimated the needs of 150 000 affected persons at 2 235 tons of milled rice and recommended the purchase of early millet, maize and rice seeds to be distributed before the 1997 crop season. Cereal imports for domestic use and re-exports in 1996/97 are estimated at 110 000 tons and the food aid requirement at 13 000 tons. So far, 6 000 tons have been pledged and 2 000 tons delivered.

GHANA (18 March Seasonably dry conditions prevail in the north. Rains started in early March in the southern where land preparation for the planting of the first maize crop is underway. Reflecting good climatic conditions during 1996 season and the end of ethnic conflicts in the north, the output of cereals in 1996 is close to the previous year's level.

Some 12 000 Togolese refugees still remain in Ghana following large repatriations in 1996. From 1 January, food distribution will be reduced to the elderly, children and young mothers, but UNHCR will provide credits to help refugees develop activities for income generation. About 135 000 Liberian refugees whose nutritional status is reported to be adequate are also in Ghana. The 1997 cereal import requirement is estimated at 335 000 tons mostly wheat and rice.

GUINEA (10 March)

Seasonably dry conditions prevail. As a result of below normal but very widespread rainfall during the growing season and scarcity of fertilizers, the first estimate for aggregate cereal output in 1996 is 900 000 tons, which is about average.

Markets are well supplied following the harvest of main foodcrops. The cereal import requirement for 1997 (excluding re-exports) is anticipated to be close to the 1996 level of 240 000 tons of wheat and rice. In February, it was estimated that about 400 000 Liberian and 200 000 Sierra Leonean refugees were in Guinea. With the ongoing peace process in Liberia and Sierra Leone, refugees are likely to begin returning. The caseload of refugees targeted for food aid distribution from January 1997 amounts to 293 000 Liberians and 173 000 Sierra-Leoneans.

GUINEA-BISSAU (10 March)

Seasonably dry conditions prevail. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission last year estimated 1996 aggregate production of cereals at 174 000 tons. This is 13 percent below the 1995 level and 6 percent below the average of the last five years.

The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Markets are generally well supplied and prices remain mostly stable. In May, the CFA Franc will replace the peso following entrance of Guinea-Bissau into the UMOA (Union Mon�taire Ouest Africaine) and the Franc zone. Cereal imports for domestic use and re-exports in 1996/97 are estimated at about 70 000 tons, mostly rice. Structural food aid requirement is estimated at 6 000 tons.

LIBERIA* (20 March)

The security situation is improving and the disarmament process has been successful, allowing demobilization of the militia in Monrovia as well as in twelve other towns around the country. National elections are planned for May 1997. The food supply and nutritional situation is improving, notably in Tubmanburg, Gaya Hill and Gbah where cereals are now available in local markets. Increasing number of refugees returning from Guinea are reported as well as Internally Displaced Persons returning to their villages.

FAO has been assisting the Forestry Development Authority to launch a forestry rehabilitation plan, in which 1 000 jobs will be created, including 500 for ex-combatants and 200 for women. Similarly, FAO is collaborating with the Rubber Planters Association, in order to assist small-holder rubber plantations. Twenty private plantations have been identified, with another twenty in the pipeline. The distribution of seeds, agricultural tools and fertilizer to about 3 000 vulnerable farmers for the forthcoming growing season are underway. FAO has also commenced the distribution of fishing equipment to a targeted population of 1 725 beneficiaries in Montserrado and Margibi Counties. A workshop on the effective utilization of this equipment and marketing techniques is being planned in collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture.

An FAO Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited Liberia late last year. Despite hostilities throughout 1996, the mission estimated that the rice crop was considerably larger in 1996 than 1995. This was largely due to improved security in the two main rice producing areas, which enabled various NGOs to distribute seeds and tools. 1996 paddy production is estimated to be about 95 000 tons or roughly 30 percent of production pre-war. Cassava is an important supplementary food to which farmers have switched. The food supply situation has been particularly tight in 1996 in several areas not accessible to relief agencies. The team travelled to areas which had experienced serious famine in 1996, the most notable being Tubmanburg city in Bomi County, some 45 miles from the capital Monrovia. A military blockade of the city is reckoned to have led to the deaths of some 4 000 people from starvation and disease.

While food aid received in 1996 was less than the level recommended by a similar Mission in late 1995, commercial rice imports were in line with projections and were substantially higher than 1995 (up to 35 000 tons from about 20 000 tons in 1995). Domestic availability of cereals in 1996 was 75 500 tons, while domestic utilization was 200 900 tons, leaving the deficit to be covered by imports and food aid of 135 100 tons. For 1997, taking into account a rise in population to 2 million people due to a partial return of refugees to Liberia and using a per caput consumption level equal to the last five years average, the projected cereal deficit will grow to about 166 000 tons. With commercial cereal imports projected at 50 000 tons, the cereal food aid requirement is estimated at 116 000 tons.

MALI (20 March)

Seasonably dry conditions prevail. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission last year estimated aggregate cereal production at 2.2 million tons. This is 6 percent above 1995 and 3 percent above the average of the last five years. Millet, rice and wheat production rose significantly while production of maize and sorghum decreased. Forecasts for off- season crops are favourable. They are estimated at about 49 000 tons, comprising 33 000 tons of rice, 14 000 tons of maize and 2 000 tons of sorghum. Isolated Desert Locust adults may be present and will persist in some parts of the Adrar des Iforas.

Following the relatively good harvest, the overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Prices of sorghum and maize started to decrease in late September and were generally still decreasing significantly in January. Supply of cereals is adequate. The national early warning system (SAP), estimated that no food distribution is necessary for the moment but that several arrondissements in the north, notably in Kidal and Gao regions, may face economic difficulties in 1997. Fodder supply is also scarce in Kidal region and in Almoustarat arrondissement of Gao region where terms of trade are less favourable than last year following lower prices of animals. Following the collapse of a dam on Lake Horo in Tombouctou region, more than 1 000 hectares usually cultivated for off-season crops have been flooded, leaving about 30 000 persons without any production, needing external assistance. The national early warning system recommended to maintain a sufficient stock in Kidal region and to reconstitute stocks in Tombouctou region in order to cover needs in Lake Horo area. For the 1996/97 marketing year (November/October), the cereal import requirement is estimated at 110 000 tons and food aid requirement at 35 000 tons. So far, 7 200 tons have been pledged. Food assistance is also given to the Tuaregs who have returned from neighbouring countries. Between November 1995 and November 1996, about 77 000 Malian refugees returned to their homes, arriving from Algeria (42 300), Mauritania (14 000), Niger (8 500), Burkina Faso (5 000) and Senegal (700). For 1997, about 62 000 additional refugees are anticipated to return in Mali from Niger (18 000), Burkina Faso (15 000), Mauritania (15 000) and Algeria (14 000).

MAURITANIA (20 March)

Seasonably dry conditions prevail. Last year, on the basis of the national production survey, a joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission estimated that 1996 cereal production was below 1995, but above average. In November, a new multi- disciplinary mission visited all wilayas of the country and estimated that planted areas for off-season crops were lower than previously estimated and reviewed significantly downwards the production estimates on the basis of its qualitative observations. The aggregate output of cereals is now estimated at 130 450 tons including 74 150 tons of rice and 56 300 tons of coarse grains.

Isolated Desert Locust immature adults were present during the first two dekads of February between Akjoujt and Atar. Nomads reported seeing a mature swarm moving north in the El Hank region near Bir Amrane which may have originated near the Malian border where vegetation is reported to be green. There was also an unconfirmed report of mature adults and hoppers near the Moroccan border. No locusts were reported during the last dekad of the month. Low numbers of adults will continue to mature in parts of Adrar, Inchiri and Tiris- Zemmour. Some of these could breed on a limited scale if further rainfall occurs.

The overall food supply situation is anticipated to be tight for certain populations affected by a poor crop in rainfed production areas, notably in Brakna, Gorgol and Tagant regions. Cereal prices are much higher than in previous years at the same period. In January, FAO and WFP organized a local multidonor assessment of the needs of the affected populations in Assaba, Brakna, Gorgol, Guidimaka, Tagant, Trarza and the two Hodhs. Undertaking rapid assessments of the nutritional situation, including anthropometric measures on children under 5 years, the mission observed high malnutrition rates in several villages. It recommended food assistance for 200 000 persons during 6 months amounting to 16 500 tons (14 400 tons of cereals, 1 440 tons of beans and 720 tons of vegetal oil). A WFP Emergency Operation has recently been approved to cover these needs. The government has also started food distributions in Nouakchott, Nouadhibou and other wilayas not covered by the WFP project. Food assistance is also being distributed to Tuareg refugees in one camp in the east of the country. Their number is currently estimated at 28 000. Since June 1996, about 17 000 refugees returned to Mali. In 1997, about 14 000 refugees are also anticipated to return to Mali. For the 1996/97 marketing year (November/October), the cereal import requirement including re-exports is estimated at 310 000 tons and the food aid requirement at 75 000 tons. Substantial imports exceeding 100 000 tons have already been registered from November 1996 to January 1997. Therefore, prices of wheat decreased somewhat.

NIGER (20 March)

Seasonably dry conditions prevail. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission last year, estimated 1996 aggregate cereal production at 2 325 000 tons. This is 10 percent more than in 1995 and 4 percent above the average of the last five years. Sorghum production increased while rice production remained similar to 1995. Isolated Desert Locust adults may be present and will persist in a few areas of central Tamesna and perhaps in A�r.

Despite this above-average harvest, food supply is anticipated to be tight in several areas which gathered poor crops, some for the second successive year. The national early warning system estimates that the arrondissements of N�Guigmi, Ouallam, Tahoua, Tanout, Tchintabaraden and all the arrondissements of Agadez departments are particularly vulnerable. The situation is particularly worrisome in Tanout area, in Zinder department, where substantial population movements have been reported in December and January. In addition, in early November, the national security stock was almost exhausted. Although funds from sales of cereals undertaken in 1996 or donors commitments for the stock�s reconstitution are registered, the OPVN, the marketing board, could not buy cereals in late 1996 following a bid launched in late October as cereal prices increased and traders could not maintain their offers. Its level is now at about 4 500 tons. Cereal prices are higher than last year, notably due to low imports from northern Nigeria where prices are also high. On 11 December, the government launched an appeal for external assistance amounting to 118 000 tons of cereals. In late December, a joint FAO/WFP Team with FEWS participation visited the arrondissement of Tanout in Zinder department to assess the situation of the vulnerable population and needs for external food assistance and non-food items including tools, seeds and logistic support. In late January, another FAO mission was organized to Ouallam arrondissement. Farmers stocks will be exhausted around mid-March and population movements are reported. Those remaining have begun eating wild foods. In late February, a new assessment mission visited the vulnerable areas of Maradi, Tanout and Zinder departments and confirmed the tight food supply and nutritional situation. Migrations of entire families have increased. Remaining families are consuming wild food and selling small livestock or borrowing against future harvest. The situation varies greatly in the villages but assistance is most urgently needed in the arrondissement of Tanout and neighbouring areas of Dakoro arrondissement. Some assistance will also be needed in urban areas where migrants from these areas have concentrated, notably in Zinder. The government has started food distributions in several arrondissements.

NIGERIA (20 March)

Seasonably dry conditions prevail. In the north, the harvest of the second maize crop and irrigated rice is drawing to an end.

Shortages of fertilizers, improved seeds and pesticides were reported during the planting season, following an import ban imposed by the government and difficulties in the distribution of locally produced fertilizers. As a result, farmers may have switched from rice crop to millet, sorghum and groundnuts, which are less fertilizer dependent. Nevertheless, following good climatic conditions during the growing season and low pest infestations, overall cereal output for 1996 is estimated at 23 million tons, which is higher than last year. About 55 million tons of roots and tubers, which represent the main foodcrops, were also produced.

The food supply is still constrained by high levels of post- harvest losses and high distribution costs. In order to reduce large post-harvest losses, the Government has started a food storage programme, including the construction of 26 silos, with a 636 000 tons storage capacity, and the installation of 500 improved storage structures for farmers. Cross border exports of maize and rice into Niger and Chad are reported. The cereal import requirement for 1997 is estimated at 1 150 000 tons, including 900 000 tons of wheat and 250 000 tons of rice. SENEGAL (20 March)

Seasonably dry conditions prevail. The final estimates of 1996 cereal production have been recently published. They indicate an aggregate output of cereals of 976 100 tons which is lower than the first estimates by joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission in October 1996 mainly due to lower production for millet and maize. 1996 production is 8 percent lower than in 1995 and below average. Production of sorghum increased, while that of maize, millet and rice decreased. Compared with the previous season's results, cropped areas, estimated at a total of 1 286 000 hectares have increased by 6 percent. Recession crops are developing satisfactorily but areas planted have decreased compared to 1995/96. Rice has been harvested in the Senegal river valley and yields are adequate.

The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Markets are well supplied. Prices of cereals have declined following the harvest and in January, they were generally lower than in January 1996 or 1995. The country imports large quantities of rice to cover its consumption requirement. External assistance may be required for the mobilization of cereals in the south and their transfer to northern deficit areas. For the 1996/97 marketing year (November/October), the cereal import requirement is estimated at 635 000 tons, mostly rice and the food aid requirement at 20 000 tons. So far 3 400 tons have been pledged.

SIERRA LEONE* (20 March)

Following five years of civil strife, the current peace process is progressively leading to a return of normal activities. Programs of food assistance for resettlement have started and more than 500 000 displaced people have returned to their homes notably in southern province. However, the situation remains unstable in Kailahun and the east of Moyamba district areas, where occasional fighting still occurs. Ambushes and looting were reported in February on the Freetown-Bo Highway.

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited Sierra Leone in late 1996 to estimate 1996 production and the national food requirements for 1997. The Mission found that agricultural production like all other productive sectors of the economy, had been badly affected by the war which started in Southern and Eastern parts of the country in 1991 and spread to the rest of the country by 1994/95. The war caused large-scale displacement of farmers, thereby cutting off large portions of land from production. Apart from being displaced, many farmers, particularly those in areas which were under frequent attacks, also lost seeds, tools, on-farm storage facilities and other productive assets to the extent that even those returning from displacement camps have not been able to resume production without help from relief agencies and NGOs. It is estimated that about 180 000 farm families were directly affected by the conflict. As a result, agricultural production has drastically dropped throughout the country in the last five years.

The Mission estimated the total area planted to rice in 1996 at about 289 200 hectares, 5 percent more than in 1995. Paddy production was estimated at 391 000 tons, 10 percent above 1995. Production of root crops is also projected to increase to an estimated 328 000 tons, some 7 percent above 1995 level.

At this level of production, the cereal import requirement for 1997 is estimated at 259 000 tons and food aid requirement at 79 300 tons. Cereal food aid requirements to support resettlement/rehabilitation activities implemented by WFP and CRS have been estimated at 60 500 tons for 1997. By February about 318 500 Sierra Leonean refugees remained in neighbouring countries, of whom, 200 000 are in Guinea, and 118 500 in Liberia. Repatriation is scheduled to start in June with 60 000 refugees from Monrovia, Mali, Gambia and Guinea. A second phase in November will facilitate the return of 80 000 people from Bomi and Cape Mount counties in Liberia and Guedekou in Guinea. The third phase will help the repatriation of 120 000 refugees from Lofa county in Liberia and Guinea.

TOGO (18 March)

Rains started in early March over the south and the centre, allowing land preparation and planting of the first maize crop. Following abundant but irregular rainfall, the cereal output for 1996 is estimated at 490 000 tons, which is slightly below average and similar to last year. Roots and tuber production is estimated at about 980 000 tons and pulses at 56 000 tons, which is about 10 percent higher than last year.

About 10 000 refugees from Ghana remain in Togo but the overall number declined significantly in 1996 following repatriation which was encouraged by a shift in humanitarian aid policy from relief to rehabilitation (provision of seeds and money) and a reduction of food aid distributions.