FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook March/April 1997 page2

FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook March/April 1997

BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION

	1992/93	1993/94	1994/95	1995/96	1996/97 forecast	Change 1996/97 over 1995/96
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/	(. . . . . . . . million ton . . . . . . . .)					(percentage)
Wheat	565	564	528	547	589	+ 7.9
Coarse grains	878	809	893	810	906	+ 11.8
Rice, milled	355	355	362	369	378	+ 2.3
(paddy)	(530)	(529)	(539)	(550)	(563)	(+ 2.4)
All cereals (including milled rice)	1 799	1 729	1 783	1 726	1 873	+ 8.5
Developing countries	917	932	932	957	1 003	+ 4.8
Developed countries	882	797	851	769	870	+ 13.1
WORLD IMPORTS 2/
Wheat	103	95	92	95	87	- 8.1
Coarse grains	94	85	89	92	83	- 10.3
Rice (milled)	15	17	21	19	18	- 3.7
All cereals	212	196	201	207	189	- 8.7
Developing countries	129	130	145	152	136	- 10.7
Developed countries	82	66	56	55	53	- 3.3
FOOD AID IN CEREALS 3/	15.1	13.0	9.4	7.5	7.5 4/	+ 0.6
WORLD UTILIZATION
Wheat	556	564	553	564	576	+ 2.0
Coarse grains	850	840	881	855	876	+ 2.5
Rice (milled)	355	358	367	373	381	+ 2.0
All cereals	1 760	1 763	1 801	1 792	1 833	+ 2.3
Developing countries	998	1 017	1 049	1 080	1 100	+ 1.9
Developed countries	762	746	752	712	732	+ 2.9
Per Caput Food Use	( . . . . . . . kg/year . . . . . . . .
Developing countries	171	171	171	171	172	+ 0.6
Developed countries	130	130	129	128	129	+ 0.5
WORLD STOCKS 5/	( . . . . . . . million tons . . . . . . . .)
Wheat	148	146	118	105	117	+ 11.3
Coarse grains	169	137	147	104	127	+ 22.8
Rice (milled)	67	63	55	53	50	- 5.1
All cereals	383	346	319	261	294	+ 12.6
Developing countries	167	169	159	154	154	- 0.1
Developed countries	216	176	161	107	141	+ 31.0
Stocks as % of world	( . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . .)
cereal consumption	21.7	19.2	17.8	14.3	15.9
EXPORT PRICES 3/	( . . . . . . . . U.S.$/ton . . . . . . . .)
Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/	278	250	289	336	352	+ 4.8
Wheat (U.S. No.2 Hard Winter)	143	143	157	216	184 6/	- 10.3 7/
Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow)	97	113	104	159	140 6/	- 4.1 7/
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 3/
From U.S. Gulf to Egypt	12.1	15.1	19.0	16.8	13.3 6/	- 25.7 7/
LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 8/	( . . . . . . . . . million tons . . . . . . . . .)
Roots & tubers production 1/	323	347	338	352	350	- 0.7
Cereal production 1/	863	884	884	914	952	+ 4.1
Per caput production (kg.)	252	253	249	253	259	+ 2.5
Cereal imports 2/	66	62	71	77	62	- 19.8
of which: Food aid 3/	10.3	8.1	7.9	5.9	5.9	+ 0.7
Proportion of cereal import	( . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . .)
covered by food aid	15	13	11	8	10

SOURCE: FAO
Note: Totals and percentages computed from unrounded data.
1/ Data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown. 2/ July/June except for rice for which the data refer to the calendar year of the second year shown. 3/ July/June. 4/ Forecast based on donors’ budgetary allocations and their minimum contributions under the Food Aid Convention (FAC) 1995. 5/ Stock data are based on aggregate of national carryover levels at the end of national crop years. 6/ Average of quotations for July 1996-March 1997. 7/ Change from corresponding period of previous year for which figures are not shown. 8/ Includes all food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. U.S.$ 1 395 in 1994), which in accordance with the guidelines and criteria agreed to by the CFA should be given priority in the allocations of food aid.