A recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission estimated the 1996/97 harvest of cereals at 431 000 tons, some 14 percent lower than last year’s good harvest, due to below normal rainfall. Rainfall was characterized by a late start, an extended mid-season dry spell and a variable finish. Western coastal areas were the worst affected, resulting in canceled or delayed planting and lower yields. Moving eastwards, the season was better with more regular rainfall patterns and reasonable production opportunities. In some of the western areas, the late start and dry spell merged, precluding the possibility of planting early first season cereals. However, first quarter 1997 rains prompted late first season planting, particularly in the lower lying and riverine areas, plus planting on the slopes and hilltops on lighter soils in the same zones. Higher than normal rainfall in December in eastern areas caused some damage to “second” season (third quarter planted) 1996 crops which had not been harvested. Generally, rainfall from mid to late February onwards was favourable and well-distributed, sustaining the development of the later planted cereals, early planted cereals that withstood the dry spell, and roots, tubers, and perennials.

NGO and UN Agency interventions providing seeds and tools were noted in many provinces and have increased the area under cultivation in most Government-controlled areas where internally displaced persons and returnees are being equipped to farm. However, cereal production continues to be constrained by the shortage of fertilizers, plant protection equipment and chemicals, hand tools and animal traction equipment in the main producing areas.

The food supply situation in the country remains tight. With an estimated 10 000 tons of cereals stored on-farm in surplus areas, the domestic availability is 441 000 tons, of which 85 percent is maize and the remainder sorghum and millet. Domestic utilization is forecast at 972 000 tons, leaving a deficit of 531 000 tons to be met by imports. Cereal import requirements in 1997/98 are estimated at 279 000 tons, indicating a shortfall of 252 000 tons to be met by food aid. Vulnerable groups requiring emergency assistance include internally displaced persons, returnees and demobilized soldiers. It is estimated that 128 000 tons of emergency food aid will be needed to meet their requirements. In addition, food aid will be required to assist the rehabilitation process. Even among settled populations, food vulnerability remains high due to lack of income generating opportunities, low purchasing power, poor infrastructure, and an absence of transport and materials for movement of goods and commodities. Programme food aid estimated at 124 000 tons will be required over the coming year to address such problems. Food aid pledges for the new marketing year amount to 169 000 tons, of which 112 000 tons have been delivered so far.