A recent FAO field assessment has confirmed that agricultural production continues to recover as a result of gradual normalization of the economic and marketing activities coupled with better availability and lower cost of inputs. The outlook for the 1997 wheat crop is favourable and aggregate output could rise by 4 percent to 328 000 tons. This is entirely due to better yields in the SRPSKA republic while in BiH Federation production is expected to fall reflecting lower planting and yields. The area sown to maize is expected to increase sharply in both republics in response to the gradual recovery of the livestock industry and disruption of industrial activities. Provided normal weather conditions prevail, output of maize is forecast to rise sharply. Production of potatoes is also likely to continue its upwards trend.
The food security situation has improved but the country will continue to have a large structural deficit in wheat, the main staple. In 1997/98 the wheat import requirement is tentatively forecast at some 265 000 tons, mainly for the BiH Federation. This is 24 percent higher than in the previous year. The increase reflects larger consumption needs following a 10 percent rise in the population inside the country, coupled with a reduction in production in the BiH Federation, which have more than compensated the reduction in consumption requirements per capita.