Prospects for the 1997 secondary “belg” crop, to be harvested from June, are uncertain reflecting delayed rains and erratic precipitation in some areas. The “belg” crop accounts for only some 7 percent of the annual cereal production but in several areas it provides the bulk of the annual food supplies. Rains, which normally start in February, were not established until mid-March. Precipitation was abundant in the second half of March, normal to above normal in April and diminished in May but remaining normal in most parts. In areas of Southern Tigray, North Wello, South Wello and North Shoa poor rains, coupled with the late onset of the season, have resulted in reduction in plantings and yields. This will also affect timely planting of short-maturing “meher” crop (teff, wheat, barley and pulse crops). The full impact of the dry weather in these areas is being assessed
Planting of the main 1997 “meher” season crops is underway. Early prospects are satisfactory, reflecting good availability of agricultural inputs, mainly fertilizers. However, prices of cereals are well below their level of the previous year which may result in a decrease in the area planted.
In pastoral areas of the south and southeast (Borena zone of Oromia region and Somali region) which were affected by failure of the short rains season (October to December), abundant rains since the third dekad of March substantially improved water availability and pasture conditions. However, following losses of livestock, depletion of stocks and deterioration of the terms of trade (animals for grain), the affected population, estimated at 1 million persons, will remain dependent on food aid for the coming months, until the livestock are fully recovered.
The overall national food situation remains satisfactory following the record 1996 main “Meher” cereal crop, harvested in December, which resulted in export surpluses. Despite the good output, some 1.9 million persons are estimated to be in need of food assistance due to structural food insecurity or localized weather adversities.
Prices of cereals, which declined from November reflecting the bumper crop, started to increase from March following exports to neighbouring countries, including significant quantities of cross-border export to Eritrea, and replenishment of the Food Security Reserve.