The early outlook for the 1997 grain harvest remains satisfactory despite recent rain damage in some areas. Provided growing conditions remain favourable, grain production in 1997 could exceed last year’s good level. Privatization of the grain production/bread distribution system is progressing satisfactorily and farmers have good incentives to maximize production. The area ploughed in the winter for sowing to grain increased by at least 50 000 hectares and heavy rain and snowfalls this winter helped replenish moisture reserves after dry conditions last year.
A larger area was sown to winter wheat. Spring grain (maize) area is also expected to increase. Improved availability of micro- agricultural credit for inputs could also have a beneficial effect on yields.
Following a good harvest of 635 000 tons in 1996, the cereal import requirement is estimated at about 500 000 tons, over two thirds of which is expected to be mobilized commercially. As this quantity of cereals had already been imported by the beginning of 1997, actual imports could be up to 50 percent higher. At the same time, unemployment remains high and there continues to be a need for food aid for targeted distribution to the most vulnerable populations, including refugees and internally displaced. WFP's target group for relief assistance has been reduced from 300 000 to 200 000 beneficiaries. WFP's food pipeline is secured until mid- October, but an additional 3 000 tons (approximately U.S.$ 1.4 million) will be needed to permit a continuation of food distributions to the end of 1997.