KENYA (20 June) Prospects for the 1997 main “long rains” cereal crop, to be harvested from October in the main growing areas, are favourable. Rains in late March and April were abundant; they stopped in early May but resumed at normal levels in late May and two first dekades of June. In pastoral areas of the Eastern and North-Eastern Provinces, the good rains during the season have resulted in a recovery of pastures and replenishment of water supplies. However, the beginning of the rains was late by ten days to two weeks and heavy in most parts. This delayed planting operations and caused reductions in maize planting intentions. Despite prevailing high prices of maize, preliminary estimates indicate the area planted to be below target. However, providing good weather continues during the remainder of the growing season, yields and production should increase substantially over last year in response to larger use of agricultural inputs.

Preliminary estimates by the end of April indicate an area planted to maize of 1.044 million hectares. This is below the target level of 1.2 million hectares set by the Ministry of Agriculture but similar to the normal level of 1995. In the important maize growing Rift Valley Province, which accounts for some 60 percent of the long rains season maize output, plantings declined by 19 percent from the reduced level of the previous year due to the factors mentioned above. By contrast, in Nyanza, Eastern and Central provinces, where the short rains are important for crop production and the 1996/97 crop was severely reduced, plantings have increased significantly in response to the good rains of the current season. The small plots and low mechanization of agriculture in these provinces meant that farmers could cope better with the delayed start of the rains. Overall, early forecasts point to a maize output above both the average and last year’s below normal crop, but lower than the bumper crop of 1994.

The early outlook for the wheat crop is promising and sowings are estimated to remain at the above-average level of last year. By contrast, the areas planted to beans and Irish potatoes are estimated to be reduced reflecting severe shortages of seeds as a result of the poor harvest of the 1996/97 short rains season.

As a result of the reduced harvest in 1996/97, the overall food supply situation remains tight with sharply increased food prices, which are beyond the reach of large sections of the population. Food aid distribution continues in pastoral and marginal agriculture areas affected by a prolonged drought during the 1996/97 “short rains” season, where the food situation has eased with the gradual recovery of the pastures and animals health.