Although growing conditions for the 1997 “Gu” season crop are favourable so far, reflecting abundant rains since late March, plantings and productivity of cereal crops are expected to remain constrained due to shortages and high prices of seeds and other agricultural inputs, as well as the adverse effects of continuing civil conflict.
The food situation in the country is rapidly deteriorating following the drought-reduced 1997 “ Der” season harvest and the persistent civil conflict. The main “Gu” crop harvested last September was also reduced and in aggregate the 1996/97 cereal production is estimated at about one-half the pre- civil strife level. Prices of grains, which normally decrease after harvest, have risen significantly since last September. The price of sorghum as of 1 May had quadrupled its level of September and at 4 000 Somali Shillings per Kg (US $ 550 per ton) is well above international prices and beyond the purchasing power of a large section of the population. By contrast, increased selling of livestock due to shortages of water and fodder has caused a substantial decline in its price. Significant movements of population, mainly from Bay and Bakool regions towards Juba Valley, Mogadishu and Kenya border, in search of food and income generation opportunities continue. Incidence of severe malnutrition among children has risen considerably since February, particularly in the Baidoa and Bay regions. The nutritional situation is reported to be alarming in the recently established settlements for the displaced in Baidoa town, for people coming from villages in Dinsor district, as well as for the local population in the Qansaxdhere and Berdale districts. Malnutrition is also reportedly increasing in Mogadishu and Kisimayo cities; prices of food are beyond the reach of the majority of the population impoverished by the persistent civil conflict which has seriously disrupted the economy. Although abundant rains in pastoral areas since late March are benefiting pastures and the food situation is gradually improving, there is an urgent need for emergency food assistance in the most affected agricultural areas.
Following the poor 1997 “Der” harvest, cereal import requirement for 1996/97 marketing year ending August is estimated at 256 000 tons. Commercial imports are projected at 170 000 tons and food aid requirements amount to 86 000 tons. Against this, food aid received in the country by late May 1997 amounted to only 21 000 tons of cereals, of which only a small portion has actually been distributed. Food distribution continues to be hampered by insecurity and, recently, by poor condition of roads due to heavy rains. Substantial donor assistance is needed, including support for logistic operations, to avert a further deterioration of the food supply situation before the next main “Gu” harvest from late August.