Harvesting of the 1997 wheat crop is complete. A recent FAO Crop Assessment Mission estimated wheat output at an above average level of 650 000 tons, second only to the record crop produced in 1991/92. At this level, production is some 23 percent above both last year and the average for the previous five years. For the 1996/97 season, a combination of Government policy encouraging wheat production and expectations of favourable wheat prices encouraged farmers to expand planted area, where possible. As a result, aggregate area under wheat increased from 743 000 feddans (312 000 hectares) in the 1995/96 season to 796 000 feddans (334 000 hectares) this year - representing an increase of some 7 percent. Compared to the benchmark average (1988/89 - 1992/93), the area cultivated in 1997 was some 2 percent higher. In addition to an expansion in area planted, losses were lower and the overall area harvested as a proportion of that planted is likely to reach 99 percent compared to between 95 and 96 percent in previous years. The recommended time for planting wheat is November. Although temperatures during November to the beginning of January were above normal and less than optimal, which resulted in delayed planting particularly in the Northern Zone, subsequent below average temperatures from mid-January to March favoured crops. In addition to the increase in the area planted and harvested and a favourable temperature regime, overall availability of all other inputs needed for production, including fuel, fertilizers and machinery, was also adequate.
The Mission also revised slightly upwards the final estimate of sorghum production for 1996/97 to around 4.2 million tons compared to 4.1 million tons estimated earlier.
Although the overall food outlook for 1997 is favourable so far, in certain provinces and states the food supply situation remains highly precarious. Six states in Darfur and Kordofan, Red Sea State and the South are estimated to have an overall deficit of around 600 000 tons. Some of the deficit may be met through normal internal trade but, especially in North Kordofan and North Darfur, some sectors of the population will have difficulty in meeting food needs. In vulnerable areas extremely poor production last year means that stocks are negligible and income from cash crops and livestock may be insufficient to purchase enough grain. Although supplies of sorghum are moving from surplus to deficit areas, prices are extremely high and out of reach of sectors of the population with low purchasing power.
To meet the needs of vulnerable groups in the country, a total of some 74 000 tons of cereals would be required as emergency assistance in 1997. Of this amount, 39 000 tons would be to cover the needs of 2.6 million displaced and war- affected people under Operation Lifeline Sudan (OLS) and the remaining 35 000 tons as project food aid for rehabilitation projects not covered by OLS. The country also needs limited food aid in certain chronic deficit areas. A contingency plan is suggested which could support people suffering severe food deficits, either by locally purchased grain assisted by donors, or by assistance with transport from surplus producing areas.