The outlook is for another poor grain harvest in 1997. The reduction in the target area for cereals, from 600 000 hectares to 400 000 hectares, is likely to benefit average yields as scarce resources are applied to smaller areas and marginally irrigated areas are not pressed into grain production. However, even in 1996 less than 500 000 hectares were actually sown. Moreover, the availability of inputs, in particular fertilizers and pesticides, has not improved. In addition, recent reforms in the agricultural sector and higher purchase prices for wheat were announced only in December 1996, too late to significantly influence viable winter wheat plantings. In view of severe financial problems on farm, stimulation of private agricultural production will depend crucially on additional working capital or inputs being made available to farmers.
Direct human consumption of wheat is expected to decline following the doubling of bread prices in December 1996, and again in May 1997. For 1996/97 the domestic cereal requirement is estimated at 1.0 million tons and includes 600 000 tons for human consumption, and 400 000 tons for feed and other uses. Feed use of grains has contracted sharply and animal numbers are reported to be falling rapidly. The cereal import requirement is now estimated at 515 000 tons and includes 500 000 tons of wheat.